The Saudis are giving out mixed signals on Iran. The de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, assured the Iranians more than a week ago that he would not let Saudi airspace be used by the Americans for an attack on Iran. Now the Saudi Defense Minister has told a Washington audience that included the heads of major Jewish organizations, that an American failure to strike Iran would only “embolden the regime.” Robert Spencer discussed these mixed signals here, and more on them can be found here: “Report: Saudi defense minister tells US not striking Iran would ’embolden’ regime,” Times of Israel, January 31, 2026:
“Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman reportedly told US officials in a private meeting in Washington on Friday [Jan. 30] that the Iranian regime would be emboldened should US President Donald Trump refrain from ordering an attack on the Islamic Republic.
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman reportedly told US officials in a private meeting in Washington on Friday that the Iranian regime would be emboldened should US President Donald Trump refrain from ordering an attack on the Islamic Republic.
“At this point, if this doesn’t happen, it will only embolden the regime,” the defense minister was quoted as saying by the Axios news site.
While a source familiar with the meeting confirmed to The Times of Israel that these comments were made, the source said they should be understood in the context of urging the US to have a clear plan and objectives of what it wanted to achieve in Iran.
The source said that bin Salman also emphasized that bombing Iran without a clear plan would only make things worse….
In other words, the Saudi defense minister wants the Americans to consider exactly what they want to do. Does Washington want to destroy the store of ballistic missiles and the factories that make them? Or to finish destroying what remains of Iran’s nuclear facilities after last June’s bombing? Or in addition to, or instead of, striking at Iran’s weapons, would the Americans want hit the military headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and decapitate its leadership? Or would it be enough to kill the supreme leader and a few dozen of his senior officials? But the choice of targets is not the only thing that the defense minister wants to be carefully planned. He wants to make sure that the Americans will be ready to protect the Saudi oilfields if Iran, in response to an American attack, would make them one of its targets in order to cause chaos in the world’s oil supplies.
According to the report, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent days that the kingdom would not permit US forces to use Saudi airspace for an attack, and Saudi officials have reiterated their preference for a diplomatic solution.
So which Saudi do you believe — the crown prince or the defense minister? Actually, there is no contradiction. When the crown prince says his country won’t allow the Americans to use Saudi airspace, he means it. He doesn’t want any trouble from Iran, especially missiles aimed at the Saudi oilfields. But he also wants the Iranians to be deprived of the means to threaten his country, which means he’s hoping for an American attack on Iran’s ballistic missiles and the plants that produce them. He doesn’t care about the impoverishment of the Iranian people, and has no interest in the oppression of Iranians by their government. After all, the government of Saudi Arabia treats its own people the same way.
The Saudi wariness of a US strike reportedly drove Trump to delay the action….
But now Trump has heard what the Saudi defense minister told his Washington audience: that the Americans cannot afford to not strike Iran. The US has to make good on Trump’s threat, for if it doesn’t, Iran will take that as a triumph; the supreme leader will be encouraged in his oppression, and the IRGC will be encouraged in its aggression.
The armada has now been fully assembled. It includes two aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald Ford, each capable of holding 90 aircraft, as well as three guided-missile destroyers (reported as the USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., USS Spruance, and USS Michael Murphy), two additional destroyers (USS McFaul, USS Mitscher) and three littoral combat ships. This “massive armada,” as Trump describes it, was assembled to intimidate Iran, and if intimidation does not produce the desired result, then to attack the Islamic Republic. Trump made three demands of Iran: first, a permanent end to all uranium enrichment and disposal of existing stockpiles; second, strict limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program; third, a complete cessation of support for regional proxy groups. Iran has rejected all three. If Iran does not now give in, and it won’t, Trump has to use that armada, or Iran will see itself as triumphant, and so will most of the world. That’s a humiliation that Trump could not stomach.
The Axios report also said that the Saudi defense minister deflected criticism at the meeting that Riyadh was pivoting away from Israel and toward the Muslim Brotherhood.
“He said several times that it was nonsense. The more he said it, the less reassuring it sounded,” one participant at the meeting told Axios.
I disagree with that participant who mistrusts the defense minister’s assurance that the kingdom now supports an American attack because if none is forthcoming, that failure will “embolden Iran.” I think Saudi Arabia wants the Americans to attack the Islamic Republic and devastate its ballistic missile supplies, but not necessarily to bring about regime change that the Saudis fear could be a source of instability in the Gulf region. But the kingdom also wants to keep its distance from the conflict, by denying use of its airspace to American planes, to avoid being targeted by a wounded and angry Iran.
John Jake says
Saudi cowards aren’t so tough against a real enemy. They had no problem with American force being deployed against Iraq and Saddam during the 1991 gulf war.
Tell them we use your facilities and air-space or we broadcast constant worldwide messaging for the next ten years that the blood of these Iranian citizens were a direct result of Saudi interference.
Nienie says
+1
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I think Saudi Arabia has changed. Maybe not to the extent of what it was during King Abdullah or Fahd, but definitely it’s more sanguine about Iran and less attached to Israel. Ironically, what drew Riyadh closer to Jerusalem was Obama/Biden trying to ally w/ the islamic regime in Iran. Now that the latter looks like on the brink, Riyadh no longer thinks that it needs Jerusalem. Also, according to some reports, they are back to preaching antisemitism in their mosques, after discontinuing it for a while
On top of that, they’ve noticed that contrary to Trump’s warnings in 2017, there were no consequences for either Qatar nor Turkey for continuing to support the muslim brotherhood, as well as dawa and jihad activity wherever they were interested. So that weakens the case within Saudi Arabia to continue to oppose dawa and jihad activity, like they enthusiastically had after 2017. For instance, at that time, Saudi Arabia refused to support Pakistan against India, whereas recently, they signed a 3-way alliance w/ Turkey and Pakistan
At this point, Israel should just end any attempts to convince Arabs – be it Saudis, Emiratis, Bahreinis, Egyptians,… of their goodwill, and just go ahead and annex Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and expel all the Pali muslims from there (while letting Christians conditionally remain). As for US, since the Saudis no longer fear Iran, there is no reason for us to continue to defend them, nor Emirates nor Qatar
MK says
most important is for us, common folks, to expose how Muslims bribe politicians with money, votes and threats and win them over or make them silent.when we decide that we don’t want to live with someone whose philosophy is too kiil us and they will do just that . this like living in a cage with a tiger – you are safe only so long.
Stive says
Israel only has one sane option. The nukes problem is not the central problem if the Pahlavi transitional govt takes over. Taking out nuke program is good for Israel and other nations, but does nothing for a free Iran. Take out the nuke program and leave Iran people enslaved is disgusting.
Asap, not regime change but regime change to Pahlavi, the majority desire of Iranians. Trump does not want Pahlavi but someone he controls as a vassal.
Look at Venezuela. It’s not free, but same regime with a trump vassal.
No matter the wrath if an angry trump, Israel must get Pahlavi in power in iran.A quick start of a Cyrus accord of Iran, Israel, and probably India will enable Israel to withstand trumps wrath if angered.
At this point, the only thing trump can do to Israel, outside of backing turkey and jolani, which he is already doing, betraying the Kurds again as usual, is trump can back or even sponsor w u.n. resolution for international forces to invade Israel to make trump peace trump style. I say bring on as it will become trump v God.
Trump is the most selfish sob. His pronouncements may match the desires of many of us, so that was we like, but trump does only for trump.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I have been saying this for months, since the Fordow bombing. The only lasting solution to this impasse is regime change. Leave it to the Iranians: the Americans have no clue about the cultural politics of that country. Just b’cos we dislike the concept of kings in this country doesn’t mean that every country looks at it that way: Iranians love the Pahlavis, and so should be allowed to have a monarchy if that’s what they choose. It’s not for our politicians like Mike Pence or Dick Blumenthal to try and force the Mujahideen Khalq on them
If Trump wants a vassal, he won’t get one. Besides, he doesn’t respect people who don’t stand up to him. Which explains his attitude towards Modi and Zelenskyy, as well as towards Erdogan and Putin
OLD GUY says
Saudi Arabia playing both sides. If we have bases in their country to protect them and they don’t stand with us we should pull our facilities and guarantee of their safety. America and us tax payers are being played like a fine fiddle.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Why wouldn’t they? They’ve seen how well it’s worked for Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey
Andrew Blackadder says
So once again a mega rich Middle Eastern Kingdom that has no Army or Air Force of its own is to be protected from yet another islamic Nation in the Middle East where most of the American Military is made up of mostly those of what these two islamic Nations would call ”infidels” though they have no trouble sending and wishing for our young men to go out and fight for some islamic Nation that is playing us for fools or just openly calling for our death.
There are more US Marines protecting the International Borders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar,Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco than there are US Marines protecting the International Borders of the United States of America.
What am I missing here.
Drill Baby Drill and let these mega rich Kingdoms create their own Military as they could buy one.
Stive says
Something about the Saudis is bewildering.
You can track the amount and type of weaponry the Saudis have purchased for the last. 50 years or so. A good reputable source is Janes. If you add the total, the Saudis should he one of the most armed and powerful nations. Where is all the stuff they keep purchasing? Do they give it away to other Islamic nations ? Is one of the largest military forces having hiding it all in the dessert ? Are well living in a world of illusions of an elaborate satanic play that seems real because real people get hurt ?
I don’t know but something is very off.