The Saudis initially cautioned President Donald Trump not to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran, and he seems to have complied, but now they’re saying that if he doesn’t strike, the Islamic regime in Tehran will be emboldened. That is certainly correct; in fact, as we have documented here more than once, the Islamic regime in Tehran is already emboldened by the perception that Trump issued an empty threat and backed down out of weakness. But why did the Saudis change their position?
They’re balancing several considerations. One is that backing the U.S. against a Muslim country, even a Shi’ite one, will not play well among many Muslims, and could conceivably even cause the monarchy trouble within Saudi Arabia. However, the Islamic Republic of Iran is indeed a Shi’ite regime, and there have been tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran since the latter’s inception. It appears, at least at this point, that the Saudis have calculated that the cost of leaving the Shi’ite regime in place and allowing Trump and the U.S. to appear weak and indecisive on the world stage is higher than the cost of supporting an attack on another Muslim state. But they’re still hedging; hence their refusal to allow the U.S. to use their airspace for an attack.
“Scoop: Saudi defense minister says Trump not bombing Iran would embolden regime,” by Barak Ravid and Zachary Basu, Axios, January 31, 2026:
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (KBS) said in a private briefing on Friday in Washington that if President Trump doesn’t follow through on his threats against Iran, the regime will end up stronger, four sources in the room tell Axios.
Why it matters: This is a reversal from the public Saudi talking points cautioning against escalation and from the deep concern Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) expressed to Trump three weeks ago. That warning was one reason Trump decided to delay a strike….
“Saudis won’t let the US use its bases or airspace for an attack on Iran, senior Gulf official reveals,” by Peter Pinedo and Jacqui Heinrich, Fox News, January 30, 2026:
As President Donald Trump weighs his options on a possible military strike on Iran, a senior Gulf official told Fox News Saudi Arabia will not allow the U.S. to use its airspace or bases for such an attack.
A high-ranking government figure from a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state told Fox News that the “U.S. hasn’t shared objectives or plans” regarding Iran with Gulf allies despite recent high-level Saudi meetings in Washington aimed at gaining clarity.
“We said this as friends, [we] want to make sure they understand our position and our assessment in general. And we want to understand the U.S. assessment with as much clarity as possible,” the senior official said. “I’d like to get full clarity, and we did not get there.”
Regarding U.S. military movements for a strike on Iran, the official said, “The plan is something other than using Saudi airspace.”…
Wellington says
Seems Trump has backed himself into a corner.
Get out of this damn corner, Mr. President. If this hideous Iranian regime survives, irrespective of what it might agree to, it is a loss for you, for America and for what’s left of the West. Of course, rogue actors like Russia, China and, yes, the Democratic Party of the USA, hope you fail here. You bet they do.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Yeah. I know war planning is not easy, but this thing is dragging out way too long. All that chaos is also sinking the markets. Get this over w/, so that we can start focussing on the economy again
Huh?!? says
+1
It seems as if Trump thinks the Art of the Deal will work with Islam. It won’t. I agree that as far as Gaza goes, Isreal takes total control or perhaps 75% Israeli rule and 25% U.S. rule. U.S. Military bases in Gaza would allow the U.S. a physical platform. A two-state solution will not work.
Rob Porter says
It is hideous to think that with the Saudis having changed their cowardly, conniving Muslim minds, Trump will now feel free to attack Iran. The sooner the better that Trump recovers his independence from his Muslim friends in Qatar, Turkey and Saudi-Arabia. He needs to do what is right and decent for the people of Iran, not be led by Muslims who don’t possess the morals of an alley cat.
SKA says
As I am seeing more profiles of young people slaughtered by the evil Islamist regime! I am almost in tears.
I really fear that Trump will chicken out on some pretext once he realizes that there may be significant American casualties even if we do win. (How can we “win” if the Aya-toilet sits it out in their bunkers?) It may require boots on the ground to overthrow this regime and that will certainly cost US blood.
And I am coming to distrust JD Vance more and more as he appears to be under the influence of the vile Tucker Carlson.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Yeah, at this point, I am hoping that there is a primary challenge to him from a candidate unafraid to declare his opposition to islam. Maybe a Ron DeSantis or a Greg Abbott
Rob says
No Islamist autocracy can ever be trusted. Even if the leaders of such autocracies genuinely want to improve the lots of their people and improve the relations with Israel and the west, their highest priority will ALWAYS be survival of their rule in the face of local popular sentiment.
somehistory says
Perhaps Mr. Trump is learning that one cannot trust a muzzie.
“don’t do it,” “okay, do it, but we won’t help.”
And after it’s done, “we didn’t have any part” as they speak with muzzies in other places. Unless they can see more of a benefit in an attack as opposed to what other muzzies might be threatening to do. If the benefit outweighs, “Yes, we advised Trump to act, but he wanted no help from us.”
OLD GUY says
Yes its called covering your ass in plain language. Islamic countries and leaders always walk that thin line of Islam, step to the wrong side and all of Islam will fall upon you. Saudi Arabia will have to stay in the middle of the road, both ditches are deep and dangerous.
somehistory says
Thank you, Old Guy.
Walter Sieruk says
Regardless of what the Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman says doesn’t say.,the basic hard truth of this matter is that President Trump should definitely no delay aiding in the liberation of the Iranian people from the cruel oppressive murderous tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran. Even if it requires using the intervention of a strong force of US military might.
For President Trump did promise to help the people of Iran in their righteous and just quest to establish a legitimate government installed in place of the horrific tyranny.
Our President should keep his promise and not let the people of Iran down.
It’s just too late for any type of “diplomatic settlement’.” The reason why this is so is because the massive human carnage is so horrendous that those murderous despots of Iran must be brought to justice. Likewise, their tyrannical Islamic regime need to be destroyed.
That cruel despicable fiendish tyrant, Khamenei, and the other ayatollahs and the mullahs along with the other fiendish despots who are in power in that tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran , also have much blood guilt of the mass murder of so many innocent Iranians on their sinister hands.
For example, a woman interviewed by the Epoch Times 1/20/26. A1, didn’t give an isolated report such murderous atrocities committed by the “security forces’ against the Iranians people has been confirmed by many other Iranians and other sources..
The article reads” Nights in Tehran, Iran, are increasingly violent” an Iranian woman told that newspapers reporter, “She said the security forces often move through crowds on motorcycles firing indiscriminately. She said in the morning she was bodies in public areas and bold on the streets.”
That wicked death –inflecting Khamenei and the other Islamic despots using their murdering criminals in uniform “security forces’ against the Iranian people who are justly and righteously revolting against that horrendously brutal cruel and deadly tyrannical Islamic regimes of Iran is outrageous and wrong.
Iranian people in the righteous quest for a genuine, legitimate government that respects and safeguard their basic human rights is a good worthy decent just very good cause.
I AM THE INFIDEL YOUR ALLAH WARNED YOU ABOUT says
First of all I will say… never trust Arabs / Muslims. They are two-faced back stabbers. In front, they will pretend to be gentle and cordial in front but they are evil and devious behind your back.
The west needs to know that and recognize it for what it is.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
True. Israel should stop looking to expand the Abraham Accords, and move ahead and annex Judea, Samaria and Gaza. The US should finally recognize that none of these Arab countries are allies, and make an alliance w/ Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Armenia and the next Pahlavi transition team in Iran, so that all these malcontents, led by Erdogan, are kept in check
Of course, that does necessitate first recognizing that neither Turkey nor Qatar are allies
Hank says
+100
They should annex it as they have nothing to lose. The situation is damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. The October 7 massacre clearly shows that. Secondly, Gaza has been a cancerous source of endless rioting in cities around the world for nations that have imported Islam.
James Lincoln says
Hopefully, Pres. Trump started to learn how Saudi leaders operate…
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The reason the Saudis are opposed to a complete revolution in Iran, which will happen if the current regime is removed – one won’t get “moderates” or “reformers” in power, the Iranian people are in no mood for that – is simple. Right now, except for Israel, the entire middle east is filled w/ countries that no person in one’s right mind would want to visit. As a result, there are a few Gulf countries one may be open to – Emirates, Bahrein, Oman and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia. This is the picture from Pakistan to Morocco
But if, suddenly, one has a non-muslim, democratic Iran that’s even better than what it was from the 50s to the 70s, suddenly this whole picture changes. That country could become a magnet for tourism, just like Greece is, as well as foreign investment. If you are a non-muslim foreigner looking for good investment opportunities in new markets, what is better – Emirates or Iran? The people of the latter are nothing like the former, who are largely isolated from the expat workers in Abu Dhabi or Dubai. In Iran, it’s now estimated that anything from 60-80% are non-muslim, and even the residual muslims there just want to be allowed to privately practice their own islam, rather than have it be enforced by Basij thugs. Outside Iran, the diaspora population is highly educated and at par w/ other western populations, so it wouldn’t be long before that could be the same situation within Iran. A whole bunch of people, who may not like dealing w/ muslims, could now enter Iran and operate from there. And it too could be a startup nation, and be to the Middle East what Lebanon was in the 1950s-70s
That is why as much as they may hate the shi’a regime across the Gulf, none of the Arabs want it to fall, and then get replaced by a secular regime, coupled w/ a population that some have described as the world’s most openly islamophobic population. They’d much rather see some sort of status quo, so that some of their major cities, like Abu Dhabi and Dubai, remain the go-to cities of the Middle East. That won’t remain the case if suddenly, people find it attractive to visit other cities like Isfahan, Yazd, Tabriz and so on. As for the other Arabs who have nothing to lose if Iran does become non-muslim and non-islamic, they’ll still root for islam, even a shi’a one
Walter Sieruk says
That tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran should collapse For its an abomination as well as an affront to everything that is good decent just and right.
It’s just far too late for any type of “diplomatic settlement’.” The reason why this is so is because the massive human carnage is so horrendous that those murderous despots of Iran must be brought to justice. Likewise, their tyrannical Islamic regime need to be destroyed.
That cruel despicable fiendish tyrant, Khamenei, and the other ayatollahs and the mullahs along with the other fiendish despots who are in power in that tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran , also have much blood guilt of the mass murder of so many innocent Iranians on their sinister hands.
For example, a woman interviewed by the Epoch Times 1/20/26. A1, didn’t give an isolated report such murderous atrocities committed by the “security forces’ against the Iranians people has been confirmed by many other Iranians and other sources.
The article reads” Nights in Tehran, Iran, are increasingly violent” an Iranian woman told that newspapers reporter, “She said the security forces often move through crowds on motorcycles firing indiscriminately. She said in the morning she was bodies in public areas and bold on the streets.
That wicked death –inflecting Khamenei and the other Islamic despots using their murdering criminals in uniform “security forces’ against the Iranian people who are justly and righteously revolting against that horrendously brutal regime.
The Iranian people should have and need a legitimate government established which respects and safeguards the basic natural human rights and freedom of the people of Iran.
somehistory says
OT out of Canada….
“Woman was euthanized ‘against her will’ after husband was fed-up with caring for her”
https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/197292/woman-euthanized-husband-caregiver-burn-out
Keys says
Unbelievable!
Oh, Canada.
somehistory says
Yes, Keys
Really horrible. She told the people she didn’t want to be killed, but they did it anyway.
How many more will happen this way?
Walter Sieruk says
The ultimate goal regarding that oppressive malicious and murderous tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran be eliminated isn’t so much if or if not Saudi Arabia permits the US Air Force its airspace to strike that “mullah regime” the important thing is that Islamic tyranny be destroyed and its dictators be brought trail and then severely punished.
That Islamic tyranny of Iran should and will collapse For its a a abomination as well as an affront to everything that is good decent just and right.
It’s just far too late for any type of “diplomatic settlement’.” The reason why this is so is because the massive human carnage is so horrendous that those murderous despots of Iran must be brought to justice. Likewise, their tyrannical Islamic regime need to be destroyed.
That cruel despicable fiendish tyrant, Khamenei, and the other ayatollahs and the mullahs along with the other fiendish despots who are in power in that tyranny of regime of Iran have much innocent blood guilt of the mass murder of so many iranians on their sinister and wicked hands.
That evil death –inflecting Khamenei and the other Islamic despots using their murdering criminals in uniform “security forces’ against the Iranian people who are justly and righteously revolting against that horrendously brutal regime..
For the Iranian people should have and need a legitimate government established which respects and safeguards the basic natural human rights and freedom.
ploome says
Saudis are afraid that if USA launches attack on Iran the Saudi shia minority, concentrated in the oil producing region, will revolt..
https://archive-yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/oil-and-gas-islams-faultline
Brenrod says
“ Saudis won’t let the US use its bases or airspace for an attack on Iran,…”
None of the bases in Muslim negations can be relied upon in times of urgent need. Also, the same will be true of europe bases as it becomes islamicised.
USA should take a part of Gaza to use as a permanent very well located military base.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Precisely, having US bases in muslim countries is a total waste. We won’t be allowed to use them when we need them
Once this islamic regime falls, shut down all US bases in Turkey, Qatar, Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and instead have them only in countries like Israel, Cyprus, Armenia and Iran
gravenimage says
Why the Saudis now say Trump should strike Iran, but won’t let him use their airspace
……………………………………………….
The Saudis want their “blue-eyed slaves” to take out their Shia rivals for them…