The Iranian rulers are worried that if they give in to American demands, this will be seen inside Iran as a sign of weakness, and will give heart to the 85% of Iranians who oppose the regime, and might be prepared to take to the streets again in mass protests. Given the economic collapse, with more than half the Iranian population now living below the poverty line, the forces of repression — the Basiji and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps —have also been affected financially for the worst. Can the regime be sure that they will enforce its orders to shoot down protesters as they did on January 8 and 9 of this year? The Iranian rulers remember that in 1978, the Shah fell because the soldiers and police stopped firing on the protesters, and many instead joined them.
Iran wants the Americans to lift their blockade of Iranian ports so that it can again export oil, and unfreeze at least $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets — and both must take place, Tehran insists, before Iran will consent to negotiate: “After months of threats by Trump, resumption of Iran war now seems inevitable,” by Lazar Berman, Times of Israel, October 27, 2026:
The allies might want to see the Islamic Republic finally fall, but regime change is not something a bombing campaign can likely achieve, as was made clear in the war earlier this year….
Is this true? What if that bombing campaign, one much more devastating than Operation Epic Fury, includes not just the expected attacks on nuclear and energy sites, but also manages to decapitate Iran’s civilian leadership? Could that be followed by a military coup, with the generals taking control — generals likely to be less fanatical than the clerics, and intent not on foreign adventurism in Gaza and Lebanon, but on keeping Iran’s nation-state together, as it faces separatist challenges from its many minorities — the Kurds, the Azeris, the Arabs, and the Baluchis?
The US blockade and threat of war might be dangerous, but the Islamic Republic still sees giving in to American demands as far riskier to the regime….
Giving in to American demands would not only be interpreted in Iran as a sign of the regime’s weakness, but would only hearten its domestic opposition, whose desperate economic condition is leading many to be prepared to go out again on the streets and protest against the regime that has brought such misery to their lives.
The allies might want to see the Islamic Republic finally fall, but regime change is not something a bombing campaign can likely achieve, as was made clear in the war earlier this year….
But this time, the attacks promise to be far more severe than those carried out last winter. The US is prepared to make use of Massive Ordnance Air Blasts (MOAB) at Pickaxe Mountain that have not previously been used in Iran. After Operation Epic Fury, the Iranians have a greatly diminished store of ballistic missiles to launch at the American bases in the Middle East and at Israel; Israel now has full control of the skies over Iran. How hard, do you think, would it be for Israel to wipe out the entire leadership of Iran?
The Israeli elections did not give Netanyahu the mandate he had hoped for. It may be weeks before the horse-trading among Israel’s politicians leads to a new government. Meanwhile, Netanyahu will still be in control, and could launch an attack with the U.S. after the American midterms, and once the Marines and third battle group have arrived in the Gulf at the end of November.
But it is the collapse of the Iranian economy, with more than half the country now living below the poverty line, and 1.7 million jobs lost just in the last few months, that could cause despairing protesters to go out on the streets. And this time, unlike in January, those who belong to the Basiji and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose families are also suffering financially, may choose not to crush the protesters. In 1978, the refusal of Iranian soldiers and police to put down the street protesters led the shah’s regime to crumble.
Mark your calendars. Somewhere between November 4 and 30, there might be bombs aweigh in the skies over Iran.
The two threats says
The collapse of the Communists in the USSR, Poland, East Germany and Romania was slowly, then rapidly.
Autocratic regimes do all they can to suppress and eliminate internal dissent, until suddenly they can’t.
When will the Iranian regime collapse?
Who knows. But it’s likely to be slowly, then rapidly.
Walter Sieruk says
That those despotic ayatollahs and mullahs in power in that Islamic regime of Iran want to have President Trump assassinated confirms that he must be is launching and having the right policies in the Middle East.
Tafty says
“ Iran wants the Americans to lift their blockade of Iranian ports so that it can again export oil, and unfreeze at least $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets — and both must take place, Tehran insists, before Iran will consent to negotiate: “After months of threats by Trump, resumption of Iran war now seems inevitable,” by Lazar Berman, Times of Israel, October 27, 2026:”
I believe that Iran can be taken with a renewed air war. of massive scale, with targeted hits of IRGC generals, especially Major General Ahmad Vahidi who is running the show in the name of the cardboard Ayatollah. My advice to Ahmed is not to buy green bananas.
The IRGC’s attitude towards surrender will change once the massive bombing starts. Japan ignored the Potsdam Declaration which was sent to Japan in late July 1945. It demanded the unconditional surrender of all Japanese armed forces and warned that rejection would lead to “prompt and utter destruction.” Japan called the apparent bluff, Hiroshima and Nagasaki followed, and then Hirohito announced Japan’s surrender on the public airwaves and in another address to his military leaders.
The IRGC has to know that when Trump green-lights the bombing, it will all be over. for them. Israel knows all movements of the IRGC brass, and they will be the first to go.
Masoud Pezeshkian, if he has any real authority and is not just a lying figurehead, will then unconditionally surrender, or surrender with a reasonable condition as did Japan. The reasonable condition for the buffs of WWII history was that Hirohito would not be executed.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I have been watching an Iranian podcaster Armin Navabi since the beginning of this year, and now, he has quite a team of podcast analysts who cover politics in Iran, Israel and the US, under the name “Liberty Politics”. On this issue, Armin’s analysis is that the islamic regime, or whatever is left of it, has a single priority: satisfy the 5% (actually I think it’s 20%) of the Iranian people who are still regime supporters. That is the only thing that enabled them to show that there is still any support for the regime
The thing about those regime supporters is that they are the rubes and dupes who believe in the anti-US and anti-Israel propaganda of the last 47 years. In other words, that the US and Israel are as evil as they claim they are. Oh, and they also believe the bravado and the megalomaniacal claims of the regime that it would destroy the world, bring in the mahdi, et al i.e. that the islamic republic was actually capable of destroying America
Now, if one was indoctrinated in that and believes it, why would they tolerate the idea of negotiating w/ the US or Israel? You don’t negotiate w/ Satan, big or little, do you? Particularly if you also believe that you are powerful enough to obliterate them. On top of everything, they assassinated your beloved supreme leader, so why would you even want to be in the same room w/ them?
So that is the bind that the regime is in. For instance, in the last several months, they’ve launched attacks against several countries – Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrein, Qatar and Emirates, while their Houthis proxies – the only ones that they have left – have been attacking Saudi Arabia. They’ve even tried some pin prick attacks on the US, knowing how hesitant Trump has been to resume the attacks. But one country they’ve not even dared touch is Israel. They know that Jerusalem is itching to resume the war, and that unlike the US, their targets are not Pickax mountain or some missile launchers in Bandar Abbas. Their targets are all the political and military leaders of the islamic republic, as well as all the IRFC and Basij security checkpoints throughout Iran. That is the one target even they cannot absorb, b’cos it will completely topple the regime and bring back Pahlavi. As a result, Israel has been off-limits to the regime that denounces them as the little satan
Not that this has gone unnoticed in Iran, particularly among the regime supporters. In their daily podcasts, Armin and Ali have a section called “Aligrams”, which contain Telegram messages from the supporters of the islamic regime. That section simply reads out and translates their messages. The bulk of them isn’t aimed at the US, Israel or even Pahlavi or the people of Iran. They are aimed at each other – the different factions within the regime – Pezeshkian, Rezaei, Ghalibaf, Vahidi, Araghchi, Rodai (sp?) and others. Some lash out at the regime for dragging Iran into this predicament where the economy is in free fall. Others lash out at the leaders who are involved in the negotiations, accusing them of being traitors and selling out to the butchers of their dear supreme leader. That section is a hoot to watch
Not true. The Shah’s advisors, including his security staff, did try to convince him to authorize a crackdown. But the Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi declined, saying that he’d rather quit the throne rather than forcibly cling to it while shedding the blood of the Iranian people. Then he took the next flight out of Iran
The reason they wanted him to stay on was not b’cos they worshipped the king, but b’cos they feared what either the communists or the jihadists would do to Iran. They were proven right almost immediately, but it has taken 47 years for enough Iranians to recognize that and fight for a return to that Iran
commonsense says
Thanks, Infidel, for your illuminating post.l
Walter Sieruk says
That those in power in that Islamic regime of Iran want the assassination of President Trump should surprise no informed person. For from the very start of that Islamic revolution there was deathly violence. First against its opponents and then after that Islamic regime was established, it then turned on and murdered its Marxist friends that helped enable that Muslim fundamentalist achieved that Islamic revolution, because those Communists were only the tools , stooges as well as useful idiots who aided that Muslim cleric revolution .
Later throughout decides Islamic regime oppressed the Iranian people in brutal e death –inflecting violence.
Even before this current America /Israel conflict/ war began 2026 on February 28 2026 that belligerent and conferential Islamic tyranny which has the title of “The Islamic Republic of Iran” hated the United States, and the State of Israel with a strong and spite -full Islamic passion.. Even prior to this 2026 violent confrontation, that belligerent and menacing Islamic regime referred to America as “The Great Satan.” and to Israel as “The little Satan.”. Likewise, two of its other themes were and still are “Death to the USA” and “Death to Israel.”
That brutal cruel malicious murderous vicious tyrannical Islamic regime completely evil, Deadly violence is a vicious part of the very essence of that Islamic regime.
It should be made known that if the founder of the current Islamic tyranny, Ayatollah Khomeini would still be alive today, he would spit on those Westerners who say that “Islam is a non-violent religion.”
If Ayatollah Khomeini had clearly announced that “Those who know nothing about Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war….There are hundreds psalms and hadiths urging of Muslims to value war and to fight. …I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.” [1] So if he was alive today who would spit on those Westerners who say that “Islam is a non-violent religion.” [1]
There are also many places in the Qu ‘ran that instruct in violence and killing for the cause of Islam. As found in ,for example Surah 2:191. 4:89.. 5:33. 9:5, 111,112 ,123. 47:4.
[1] THE ISLAM IN ISLAMIC TERRORISM by Ibn Warraq page 339.