In Lebanon, Even the Shi’a Are Turning Against Hezbollah

A new poll reveals that even among the Shi’a, once the rock-solid base of support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, two-thirds now want Hezbollah to be disarmed, and only one-sixth of the Lebanese Shi’a think that Hezbollah protects their security. More on this reversal of fortune for the goose-stepping terror group can be found here: “Are Lebanese Shi’ites abandoning Hezbollah? Poll shows majority favor disarming group – analysis,” by Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, October 24, 2026:

Hezbollah may face growing criticism from within Lebanon’s Shi’ite community, which has formed the backbone of its support for decades, according to a report from KAN on Saturday.

A recent survey of Shi’ites got attention in regional media. As reported by Israel’s KAN public broadcaster and the Lebanese Kataeb.org website, the survey, whose results emerged in mid-October, suggested that many Shi’ites are increasingly questioning the terrorist group.

The main question is whether Hezbollah should keep its arsenal. People also questioned Hezbollah’s conduct in the wars with Israel. However, this did not necessarily mean that Hezbollah is losing its influence over the community.

Respondents said decisions regarding war and peace should be left to the Lebanese state
The survey, conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September among 800 Lebanese Shi’ites, found that 66.4% supported transferring Hezbollah’s weapons to the Lebanese state. Another 29.6% preferred that the terrorist organization retain its weapons. The results were significant because Hezbollah has argued that its arsenal is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Roi Kais at Israel’s KAN noted, “A new survey has revealed that about 66 percent of Lebanese Shi’ites support Hezbollah’s transfer of weapons to the state, and more than 40 percent express anger and disappointment with its leadership. Amid growing criticism, the support networks and status the terrorist organization has given the sect still maintain its power – as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.”

Notably, Kataeb.org, the website of the Phalange Party (Kataeb Party), a political party in Lebanon, published details on the survey. The Christian Kataeb Party opposes Hezbollah. The website noted that 71.1% of respondents believed that decisions about war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah’s leadership should have a greater role in determining Lebanon’s future….

These figures show a colossal decrease in the once-massive support for Hezbollah among the Shi’a, with two-thirds wanting the group to be disarmed, and seven out of ten respondents now saying that only the Lebanese state should decide matters of war and peace. They are prepared to see Hezbollah dissolved as a military group, and to turn itself into a political party.

In just the last six months, Shi’a support for Hezbollah’s surrendering its weapons went from 7.9% to 66.9%. A huge leap.

An opinion poll reveals what the Shia now think. But they don’t dare demonstrate their massive disaffection with Hezbollah publicly, because of what the vindictive group might do to them. Hezbollah’s influence is based on force and the threat of force. The Lebanese Army will need more American weapons if it is to take on Hezbollah and force it to disarm. The Lebanese state will need more money, most likely provided by the rich Sunni states of the Gulf, to be able to deliver the social services that until now Hezbollah has been providing.

Now that it is so powerful, it is hard to uproot. Many people in Lebanon feared opposing Hezbollah over the years. For some Shi’ite families, it remains an important source of employment and assistance, even if they have to sacrifice their security due to the wars that Hezbollah has caused….

But Hezbollah is no longer able, as it once was, to be “an important source of employment and assistance.” Along with losing 80% of its weaponry, Hezbollah is almost broke. It used to rely on infusions of cash from Iran. But Iran’s economy has collapsed. With the American blockade of its ports, it can no longer export any oil; so far, that blockade has cost Iran $25 billion. The Iranian cupboard is bare.

Hezbollah is attempting to regain support through reconstruction assistance. According to KAN, Hezbollah recently announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

Hezbollah promises these subsidies to help Lebanese families reconstruct their dwellings destroyed in Israeli raids. But right now, this is a hollow promise. It has no money to provide; Iran is no longer supplying any funds to its proxies, but instead, it has asked Hezbollah and Hamas to send back money to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Since the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the IDF has killed at least a dozen of Hezbollah’s most senior leaders. And let’s not forget the nearly 4,000 Hezbollah members who were severely wounded by the “exploding pagers”; about 1,500 of them are no longer fit for military service.

Right now, the Lebanese state is being strengthened with the hundreds of millions of dollars in American military aid that is being sent to the Lebanese National Army (LNA), precisely so that the LNA can take on Hezbollah if it refuses to disarm, and to provide security for all Lebanese across the land. Other European countries have also provided lesser amounts of military aid to the LNA. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is not only unable to pay its recruits the full salaries they were promised, but has seen its once-vast arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles reduced, thanks to Israeli attacks, to less than 20% of that original total.

Having lost 80% of its major weaponry, and now without its Iranian financial support, Hezbollah is weaker than at any time in its history. The Sunnis and the Christians want to see it disappear as a military group, and now two-thirds of the Shia appear to agree. Can the group survive without its weapons, its commanders becoming members of Parliament? Or will Nabil Berri, the head of Amal, the Shi’a political party, resist sharing political power in Parliament with Hezbollah?