Iran has many weaknesses. One is economic: the country’s finances are in total disarray. Thanks to the American blockade, no Iran oil — the mainstay of the economy — is now being exported. The rial is now the lowest it has ever been; a single dollar is now worth 2.3 million rials; in 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, a dollar was worth only 70 rials. More than 40% of the Iranian population has now fallen below the poverty line. American sanctions have upended the banking system.
Another weakness is geopolitical: Iran has spent many billions of dollars on weapons for its proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen — only to see much of that weaponry go up in smoke. Hezbollah alone had accumulated a huge armory of 150,000 missiles and rockets, but since the latest war with Israel, the IDF has managed to reduce that number by 80%. Hamas is also on the ropes in Gaza, with the IDF having pushed it out of half of the Strip. And right now, the Houthis are warring against Yemenis and Saudi Arabia, with no end in sight, while 200,000 Yemenis have now had to move to avoid the fighting.
With the loss of Syria — the Sunni Arabs will never forgive Shi’a Iran for taking Bashar Assad’s side in the civil war — Iran has seen its close ally become its determined enemy. No longer can Iran send weapons to Hezbollah through Syria; that supply line to its main proxy has been cut off.
But the other great weakness of Iran has to do with the country’s minorities. Officially, 61% of the Iranian population of 92 million, or 56 million, are Persians. There is reason to believe that Tehran exaggerates the number of Persians. But even if we were to accept that 61% figure for the Persian population, the remaining 36 million consist of Kurds (10 million), Azeris (16 million), Arabs (4 million), Baluchis (4.8 million), and others, all of them minorities deeply unhappy with their Persian masters.
The latest armed revolt of a minority is taking place in Iran’s southeast, on the border with Pakistan, where fighters belonging to the Baluchi minority have been attacking Persian forces so effectively that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been sent in to suppress them. More on the Baluchi insurgency can be found here: “Iran facing growing insurgency in separatist, largely Sunni, Sistan-Balochistan region – analysis,” by Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, October 15, 2026:
Iran continues to clash with rebels in its Balochistan region, according to numerous reports. This follows several weeks of growing unrest in the region – the Sistan and Balochistan province of Iran. Little is known about the situation because media is not allowed in the area, and Iran keeps a tight lid on information. Nevertheless, videos that have appeared over the last two weeks, along with reports, appear to indicate a growing insurgency.
Recently, an Iranian commander and a police officer were reportedly killed in clashes. Haalvsh, a human rights group, said that “both casualties were from Zabol district.” It identified them as “Afsaneh Aqila, a female commander of the all-women’s Basij unit in Mehrestan County and Mohammad Ali Shahriari, a male police officer.”
On October 1, videos shared on social media showed smoke billowing from fighting in the area of Zahedan city.
Now, the Kurdish media outlet Rudaw has reported that “Iranian forces deployed around 40 additional vehicles to Taftan county in southeastern Sistan and Balochistan province on Tuesday, a Baluch rights monitor reported, as clashes between Iranian security forces and militants continue.”…
The Kurds are taking a keen interest in the Balochi separatist movement, for they recognize that the more difficulty the Iranian state has in putting down the Baloch uprising, the more likely it is that other minorities in Iran, including themselves, will rise up against their Persian masters. But if the IRGC manages to crush the Balochis, the Kurds and other minorities will remain subdued, unwilling to risk facing the same outcome.
TodayPress.TV, a media organization based in Azerbaijan, noted that “a bloody crackdown by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reportedly unfolding in the Sistan and Balochistan region, where assassinations are being carried out almost daily.”
Like the Kurds, the Azeris have been closely followed the fighting going on between another minority population in Iran and the Persian-dominated army and IRGC. Any Baluchi success will hearten the Azeris in Iran and make them wonder if this is their moment. There are more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan, so that the success of Azeris in Iran would surely lead them to want to become part of a greatly-enlarged Azerbaijani state. And how many Azeris will travel from Azerbaijan to fight alongside Azeri separatists inside Iran?
It [Iran’s TodayPress TV] added: “Several militant groups have joined forces in the region and claim to be fighting for control of all of Iran. However, at least one of these groups has historically been associated with Baloch separatism and follows a distinctly conservative Sunni ideology.”
This announcement about Baloch separatism is meant to encourage Persian support for a harsh crackdown on the Balochi insurgents. And as the Iranian media has been eager to point out, the Balochis are Sunnis, and historically the oppressors of the Shia.
There are more than twice as many Baloch in Pakistan — some 10 million — as there are in Iran. The Baloch in Iran can hide weapons and fighters, when necessary, among their fellow Baloch in Pakistan. They can also receive weapons and fighters from the Baloch. Is the IRGC ready to follow Baloch separatists into Pakistan if need be?
The regime in Tehran must be terrified. The greatest threat to the regime, and to the continued existence of the Iranian state, is the country’s large minorities that together constitute about 40% of the population; they would, if they could, become independent of the Persians. The Baloch uprising has waxed and waned, but it has started up again at a time when Tehran is reeling from a collapsing economy, and from the enormous damage inflicted on its arsenal of weapons by Israel and America earlier this year.
What if, following upon another battering of the IRGC by Israel and America, all of the main minorities in Iran—Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis — were to rise up at the same time ? How long could the IRGC manage to suppress them all? And what if the Americans were to deliver weapons, including vast numbers of drones, to each of these minorities? How long would Iran, as a single state ruled by Persians, survive?
Stive says
Azerbaijan a mostly Moslem secular state does not want united with azeris in Iran that are more religious. Like trying to merge Kurds in Iraq with Kurds in turkey, not a good merge.
ElderlyZionist says
Balochis in Pakistan are also “restive”, and the Pakistani government will probably co-operate with Iran to put down any uprising on either side of the border.
gravenimage says
In Balochistan, Iran, the Rebellion Heats Up
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If it weakens the Mullahs, good.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
No! Just no! Splitting Iran up into Balochistan, Khuzestan, Kurdistan and South Azerbaijan will just create 4 new islamic countries: it will not improve the geopolitical situation there
In April 2023, 32 Israeli lawmakers (from Netanyahu’s coalition) signed a letter urging then-Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to support the “independence movement of South Azerbaijan” and pressure Iran over its treatment of the Azeri minority in northwest Iran. The letter was initiated at the request of the Jewish community in Azerbaijan.
Reza Pahlavi’s reaction was immediate and furious
“The verbal assault on Iran’s territorial integrity by 32 members of the Israeli parliament is completely unacceptable and a service to the interests of the anti-Iranian Islamic Republic regime.”
The backlash forced a retreat: About 25 of the 32 lawmakers withdrew their signatures and expressed “explicit regret for questioning Iran’s territorial integrity.” Israeli officials backtracked, with one minister stating she convinced most signatories to disapprove of “the establishment of a state in part of the territory of Iran for the Azeri minority.”
This incident revealed that open Israeli support for Azeri separatism directly conflicts with support for Pahlavi and the Iranian opposition, who view territorial integrity as sacrosanct.
Israel faces a trilemma:
1. Azerbaijan: Immediate security partner, provides territory near Iran, accepts Israeli military support, helps encircle Iran
2. Pahlavi/Iranian opposition: Long-term strategic prize—a friendly, non-Islamist Iran that could normalize relations with Israel
3. Territorial integrity principle: Supporting separatism anywhere creates precedents that could backfire (Kurds, Palestinians, etc.). It’s also why Israel didn’t immediately recognize an independent Kosovo
There are a lot more ramifications for this – not just for Israel, but also the region:: Turkey would start wanting to bite off the Kurdish regions even while Baku tries to annex “South Azerbaijan”, becoming even more lethal than it is now. Also, once Iran falls, Azerbaijan won’t remain an ally of Jerusalem: it will more likely ally w/ Ankara. In the meantime, “Persia”, or whatever is left of Iran after dismemberment, will be miffed enough at Israel even if they throw off islam and refuse to embrace communism. That was Azerbaijan.
Now take Kurdistan. If a Kurdish revolt was encouraged, Ankara would not remain quiet: they have emphatically demonstrated this century that they will not tolerate a Kurdish state on their borders, be it Iraq or Syria. Iran will be no different, and Turkey will get a foothold. Also, if a “Greater Azerbaijan” is achieved, then Turkey will try doing to a dismembered Iran what it did to Armenia: carve a corridor to Turkmenistan or even Afghanistan to connect it w/ the Organization of Turkic States, thereby creating a neo Turkic empire. All that in addition to trying to annex Kurdistan. A far bigger threat to Israel – a Turkey w/ the oil of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan
Now, if this dismembership spreads to Khuzestan, they are likely to join w/ Iraq, since their cousins in Basra, Najaf, Kufa and Karbala are closer to them than the regime in Tehran.. Iraq has shown no inclination to normalize relations w/ Israel, despite their differences w/ the IRGC, so Israel won’t gain Khuzestani support either. Again, no good to Jerusalem
,Finally, Balochistan. If they are carved out, Afghanistan could get a corridor to the Gulf of Oman, but what remains of Iran will be cut off. Today, we are bothered about Iran blocking Hormuz traffic. Instead, a new rogue Balochistan regime might – and we have no idea what sort of a country they are contemplating. Their flag includes a ☪️, which suggests that they would be jihad-sympathetic. A stupid thing to want at the Strait of Hormuz, if Pakistan wasn’t bad enough
No, the best thing to root for here is a united Iran, under the Pahlavi transition team, which promises a new constitution that makes it secular, democratic and likely to sign the Cyrus Accords w/ Israel. That would be the ideal endgame to this Iran saga
Brian Ozzy says
Thanks. An excellent summation of the many problems. All caused as usual by the demands of that disgusting, vicious, murdering islam and its ludicrous man made koran and hadiths.
Transmaster says
I am in favor of an independent Kurdistan. But not necessarily the Kurds in Iran. But a Kurdish state in Northeastern Iraq would be a good thing. An independent Kurdistan, with a large US military base would give Erdoğan a heart attack. I know veterans who have fought alongside Peshmerga, and especially female YPJ (Yekǐneyên Parastina Jin) YPJ Amazon Warriors terrorized the Daesh to the point they would blow themselves up rather that fall into the hands of these vicious revenge fueled women. The vet’s I talked to said unlike the lragi, and Afghan soldiers who would run for the hills in battle the Kurds always had you back and the biggest problem they had was restraining them from doing suicidal things.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
That’s a good point. I’d support an independent Kurdistan in Syria & Iraq, and I’d even be fine w/ the Turkish Kurdistan seceding, if for no other reason than to humiliate Erdogan
Agree w/ you about Iranian Kurdistan. Incidentally, if the Iran revolution podcasters – Armin Navabi, Mahyar Tousi, Goldie Ghamari and Ali Samani are to be believed, then Iranian Kurds are opposed to seceding from Iran. In fact, one video that Mr Navabi showed was an Iranian Kurd showing the Iraqi Kurdistan president Barzani sending condolences after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who Iranian Kurds hated. She pointed out that that was the reason that the Iranian Kurds and the Iraqi Kurds could not be in the same page
Also, while Iran doens’t want its Kurdistan to secede, like Turkey doesn’t, I don’t see a Pahlavi regime going to war against a Kurdistan outside Iran if it becomes a reality