The Funeral for Khamenei, and Its Discontents

The regime had said that fifteen million Iranians would show up to weep — Shi’a Muslims love to cry — over the sight of the supreme leader’s coffin for what the government claimed would be the greatest state funeral in Iran’s history. People outside the regime insisted there would be at most four million, and possibly even fewer than that. In other words, with a population of 92 million, less than 3% of Iranians, if that, would show up. In the event, the Wall Street Journal said around twenty million mourners were expected.

A more interesting story is those who are staying away, rather than travel to Tehran to shout “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” That is clear from this story, which was published before the festivities began: “‘Extravagant ceremony for a dictator’: Some Iranians will avoid Khamenei’s funeral,” AFP, July 3, 2026:

 The funeral for Iran’s slain supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, which begins Saturday [July 4], is expected to draw millions, but some Iranians say they won’t attend, citing fears for their safety due to possible attacks and rowdy crowds, and others don’t want to take part in a lavish ceremony for a dictator while the country’s economy suffers….

The funeral is set to last for seven days. It began in Tehran, but then will move to other cities, including Karbala in Iraq, before ending in Mashhad, the former supreme leader’s birthplace, where he will be buried. There are 92 million people in Iran, but according to the estimates of Iranians abroad who closely monitor what is going on inside Iran, few Iranians still support the regime; most are hoping for its downfall.

Not only do those people fleeing Tehran by the millions just before the funeral begins not want to attend the funeral, but they cannot stand the people who support the regime and will be filling the air with cries of “Death to America” and “Death to the Zionist entity,” “Death to Bibi” and “Death to Trump.” Also there is “Our slogan is one word: Revenge, revenge,” and “We will kill, we will kill he who killed our Imam.” They’ve heard all this so any times before, and are sick of it, sick of their fanatical oppressors.

And then there will be the endless sobbing by several million attendees, weeping those “compendious and portable oceans” of tears which Shi’a Muslims, tearfully recalling the death of Ali, so often shed.

“My concern is that poor organization could put people’s lives at risk,” said Effat, a 67-year-old housewife in the northeast city of Mashhad. “I also worry about the possibility of violence or a terrorist attack intended to gain international attention.”

“When those kinds of tragic things happen, the authorities quickly blame foreign actors like Israel or the opposition, before the facts are clearly established. I just hope everyone who attends returns home safely,” she said.

“From what I can see, many people in Tehran are actually leaving the city and escaping the messy, crowded city and ceremony,” said Azadeh, 43, a translator in the capital Tehran.

“The city is unusually quiet. I don’t know who is supposed to make up the ’15 million’ attendees they’re talking about. People are saying government employees and even schoolchildren are being bused in from other cities to Tehran on Saturday,” she said.

“What worries me most is the safety of those kids,” she added. “I just hope they don’t get crushed in the crowd.”

How many of these attendees were given strict instructions to attend the funeral — that is, they were made an offer that they could not refuse? And that “command performance” was not just imposed on those who live in Tehran, but upon others who were bused in from other cities. No government employee would dare to disobey, lest he lose his job. And then schoolchildren, too, from outside Tehran were also bused in to swell the number of funeral attendees. They did not assent; they nolens-volens went.

Saeid, a 29-year-old tech worker in Tehran, said: “Despite the intense heat, the roads leading out of Tehran are packed. Many Tehran residents have already headed north, and I’m leaving too because staying in the city has become really difficult.”

“The atmosphere feels tense,” he added. “Many streets are closed, nighttime checkpoints are back, and the city is filled with security personnel and large numbers of people in conservative religious attire.”

“It feels unsettling and I can’t bear this. My guess is they may be able to gather around four or five million supporters, and then the state media will probably claim that 20 million people attended,” he said….

Of course, the regime will provide figures of 15 to 20 million mourners. 10.9 million Iranians are said to have attended the funeral of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, at a time when Iran’s population was 60 million. Now, with 92 million Iranians, they need to surpass that 1989 figure — or pretend to have done so.

If Iranian informants in Tehran predict that perhaps four to five million will show up for the funeral, who are we to say them nay?

“For years, it has felt like ordinary people and government supporters have been living in two completely different bubbles while being in the same country. This ceremony is no different from other state or religious events that attract only a minority of Iranian society,” she said.

Still, it will be fun for the rest of the world to see that repellent blend of rage, with calls of “death to America” and “death to the Zionist entity,” with that weeping, and wailing, and gnashing of teeth that will be on comical display. As of July 5, on-the-ground international media in Tehran including the AP, were reporting that there were “hundreds of thousands” of attendees, while Iran kept insisting there were millions at the funeral. Whom should we believe?

I’m betting that the real number of mourners, all over Iran, will not exceed four million, or 4.35% of the Iranian population. Not much of a turnout, and one more sign of massive popular disaffection with the regime.