The blockade of Iranian ports has led to a 90% drop in Iranian oil exports. Estimates are that the blockade is costing Iran $400 million a day in lost oil revenue. And Iran is no longer able to receive shipments of food and medicines from its traditional suppliers abroad, who are now blocked from using Iranian ports. How long can the Islamic Republic survive under such conditions?
Oil constitutes some 85 percent of Iran’s exports. And now, because of the blockade, none of that oil can now be shipped abroad. Iranians are now living meagerly on whatever reserves they may have saved from former years, a sum which is asymptotically approaching zero. And that American blockade that shows no signs of ending — certainly not until the Iranian leaders agree to hand over to a third party the 144 lbs. of uranium enriched to a level of 60% that Tehran possesses. Oil continues to be produced, and is now filling all the “parked tankers” floating just offshore in the Gulf and all the storage tanks on Kharg Island. But both are now filled close to capacity, with no end to the flow of oil from the wells in sight.
The blockade of Iran’s ports has put the Islamic Republic in the worst condition it has ever been. It can’t export the oil, which is now filling up both tanker ships and storage facilities on line, and they will be totally filled by mid-May. What then? Assuming the American blockade of Iranian ports remains in force, there will be no place to put the oil, and the government will have to halt its production. But that will have serious consequences for oil production in the future. When oil is no longer being pumped, it affects the quality of the oil in the wells.
Shutting off working wells can damage them in several ways. When oil cools, it can deposit paraffin wax and sediment which can clog the rock that holds the oil. Also, when extraction stops, the natural water table below the oil zone can rise, flooding the reservoir and permanently trapping the oil. Halting production can also cause pressure imbalances and corrosion. The costs of restarting production after all this can be prohibitive.
What can Iran do? In about a month, it will have run out of storage space for its oil. It is damned if it produces oil with no place to store it, and damned if it turns off the wells, and permanently damages them. There is no good answer. Iran has until mid-May to arrive at a deal on Trump’s terms, so that the blockade is called off and Iranian oil can again be shipped at rock-bottom prices to those hard-bargainers, the Chinese.
The people of Iran, worse off economically than ever before, with their collective gorge rising, will go out on the streets again, as they did in January, to shout their deepened despair, and rage by the millions at their tormentors, and this time, with nothing to lose, could well keep on protesting until the regime collapses. The key players in the 1979 Iranian Revolution were not the students, nor the bazaaris, but the oil workers. When they went out on strike in 1978 against the Shah’s regime and in support of the little-known and less-understood Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran’s production, and sales, of oil and refined petroleum products plummeted. This led to great economic distress, which only added to the fury of ordinary Iranians, who blamed not the workers on strike, but the regime itself, against which those workers were striking. Strikes at the facility played a major role in the 1979 revolution, helping to overthrow the shah of Iran. That symbolism is not lost either on the faltering regime, or on those who are now determined to topple it.
Iran is now facing a complete economic collapse. Every day that the blockade continues costs the country $400 million. Americans have to pay more for gasoline, but what a small price that is to pay in order to prevent one of the world’s worst regimes from obtaining the world’s most dangerous weapon. As Trump puts it, when one weighs the hardship of higher prices at the pump against the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran, there is in his view only one choice: Americans must endure what he believes is a painful but temporary price rise, in order to save the world from a nuclear Iran.
Patton says
This is about the most comprehensive explanation I have yet seen describing the situation. Some min argue, that there are lots of innocent people, and I ran who will be hurt by the tanking of their economy. I would acknowledge that there may be some people there who do not support the Islamo- fascist regime there run by these scumbag cleric pigs. But let’s not get confused here. Iran is more than 95% moose slime. The clerics and the IRGC may be the worst of them. But they are all overwhelmingly America hating pigs. So if they can’t figure out a way to surrender and change who they are. Well, my feeling is shit happens and karma is a bitch. They are already well on their way to ruining Europe, the UK and Canada and America will not fall behind. There are very few innocents in Iran. If they want to turn the country over to what’s left of their Christian community and let them run it and maybe they form an alliance with the Kurds. Otherwise, I don’t frankly give a shit what happens to them What’s important? Is America’s economy and the safety of our troops F-what’s left of their shit hole country?
Gamzu says
You know not of what you speak. Most Iranians no longer consider themselves Muslims.
Wellington says
Too bad the Democratic Party of the USA is not supporting the Trump Administration in the quest to deny the Iranian theocratic regime, apparently still in charge of Iran, any leverage whatsoever.
Highly telling and damning that the fading Iranian regime has as its best ally in all the world the Democratic Party of the USA. Know of a better ally? Well then, shatter me and tell me who that ally is. I aver it can’t be done as long as one strives for truth and accuracy.
somehistory says
Wellington, I saw a report where some rep from MA was interviewed on CNN. Seth Loudin, I believe is his name.
He was talking about Pete Hegseth being a war criminal. He said that the government was wrong to target boats in the Caribbean because the people on board were just ‘fishermen, doing their jobs, trying to make a living.’
And….he said the Trump Administration made up the term narco-terrorists. When I read that, I had to think how stupid. Narco-terrorist, narco-terrorism, have been terms for years and years before Mr. Trump ever became a politician.
The democrats are just plain stupid and shouldn’t be ruling over anyone, or they are evil liars who shouldn’t be ruling over anyone.
Wellington says
I believe the person you’re referring to, somehistory, is Seth Moulton, a Congressman from Massachusetts—oh yeah, Massachusetts is such a drag on America and because of sundry individuals, including its present foolish Governor, the ever idiotic Mayor Wu of Boston, its two obnoxious Senators, et al. All 14 of its counties have lost their mind.
Massachusetts has come a long way, a long way downwards, since the time of Calvin Coolidge, Governor of Massachusetts before he became to date my choice for the single most underrated President in American history. Ah, if Calvin could see America now, I think that very fine and wise man would have deep sadness in his heart.
Moulton referenced the prosecution of Nazi war criminals when mentioning the stalwart, competent and completely sane Pete Hegseth, the implication being that Hegseth, a true American patriot, is comparable to people like Goering. This is indicative to me of just how off the walls the Democratic Party has become. Well, that highly foolish and empty woman, one Kamala Harris, said back in 2024 that she believed that Trump is a fascist. A more idiotic and ignorant statement would be deuce difficult to find by a major candidate for the Presidency in all of American history (and which history I would bet a lot of money on Cackling Kamala knows very little about).
America remains in profound trouble because one of the two major political parties has indeed lost its mind as well as its morals. Nothing I know of could be cleared than this.
somehistory says
Thank you, Wellington. For the name correction ( I was sadly off on that) and for the other information.
I’ll bet that you were really good at being a history professor. Not just “professing” but actually knowing, understanding, and communicating..
James Lincoln says
Wellington,
Excellent post.
gravenimage says
Good exchange.
Taffy says
Yeah, all the fishing vessels that I’m familiar with are cigarette boats with quad 250s powering them. The rum runners during prohibition used Go-Fast boats, the predecessor to the cigarette to simply outrun the revenuers.
Walter Sieruk says
A blockade is useful in this current situation of this conflict with that diabolical jihad regime of Iran.
Furthermore ,when it comes to the subject of the United States with her war against that of dangerous and menacing Islamic tyranny of Iran . There should be no negotiations whatsoever with the representatives of that Islamic regime, because they and the despots who head that horrendous Islamic tyranny are lairs and will have no intention of keeping their promise on anything that they might sign. Such a printed “peace agreement wouldn’t be worth the paper that it’s printed on.
Therefore, It’s best to finish the job, as in “Get it over with ‘ by eliminating that horrific tyrannical regime, once and for all. As it had been ,rightly and wisely. “Half-measures in war is madness and folly.”
Then after the collapse of that “mullah regime” the Iranian people will be free to establish a legitimate ,genuine , government that ensure and respects the natural basic human rights of its citizens.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Right, so when will they run out?
Pray Hard says
Too bad that it’s not four billion a day.
gravenimage says
The Blockade Is Costing the Islamic Republic of Iran $400 Million a Day in Lost Oil Revenue
……………………………………………….
Good to hear.
Sarprina says
Iran is no republic by any stretch of the imagination. It is a theocratic dictatorship.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
True. Nobody is talking even about, let alone to, President Pezeshkian. They’re wondering who the leader is since Khamenei Sr is dead and Jr is completely hidden, probably in a coma or maybe dead.
nenus says
I was hoping to read this! Thank god and civilization that Islamofascist cavemen of Iran have suffered hug damage to their “economy” from which they’ll hardy recover. Imagine half a billion bucks lost daily and all most of their facilities not functioning! Be their “top dogs” are not too happy about it.
These savages have suppressed oppressed, tortured and killed 50,000 in less than 2 weeks! They should be sanctioned even more and make sure the same applies to Erdogan’s Ialamofascist Turkey, the Laundromat for Iran’s corrupt money going to the top Dogs and none reaching the poor Iranians!
In 1979, Ayatollah Khamenei ordreed that the first Law to passed was….to legaliize MARRIAGES of 8-year-old girls! Imagine this, a systematic child sexploitation and Abuse unde rteh guise of RELIGION! Epstein would have applied for Citizenship if that monster were alive today!