Even before we knew for sure that President Trump would not make good on his threat to “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age,” and before he concluded yet another spurious “ceasefire,” it was not too early to consider what each of the three parties to the current conflict — the United States, Israel, and Iran — hoped to achieve in this war and how close each of them has come to attaining them. Now, doing so is more urgent than ever.
Trump repeatedly set deadlines for Iran — two weeks, three or four weeks, “maybe” a month — and let all those deadlines pass without his promised ferocious attack. The attack that he promised most recently would “completely destroy” Iran “and its civilization.” If the remnants of Iran’s Islamic regime hadn’t signaled their readiness to conclude this “ceasefire,” that attack may have taken place, or it may not have. With Trump, you never know.
Right now, with the “ceasefire” putatively in force, there is no sign of regime change. The new set of leaders are even more fanatical than those they have replaced. They have been drafting 12-year-olds to man checkpoints and guard sites that have been attacked, and to fulfill other duties that previously would have been assigned to adult soldiers.
Even more likely to antagonize the Iranian people who had been hoping that American military intervention would save them and end the Islamic Republic was Trump’s incredible rhetoric: his warning that he would “destroy the Iranian civilization” and reduce the entire country to rubble if the regime didn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz. This kind of thing is turning Iranian opponents of the regime into opponents, as well, of the Americans. Trump could, and should, have said that “we want to rescue the noble Iranian people, heirs to a civilization that is 5,000 years old, from the fanatics who think Persian history began with the coming of Islam, and who choose to dismiss everything that went before as a jahiliyya, or ‘time of ignorance.'”
Meanwhile, by attacking all of its Arab neighbors, bombing their oil and gas facilities, their desalination plants, their airports, and major civilian complexes in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman, Iran has assured itself of their unassuageable enmity.
America and Israel have done a lot of damage to Iran’s military. Nuclear facilities have again been attacked at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Hundreds of ballistic missiles have been destroyed in their hiding places, including those in tunnels underground. So have ballistic missile factories. But the Iranians appear to have a much larger store than anyone realized, and they continue to lob them at Israel, at American bases in the region, and at Gulf Arab states. And Iran has not given up the 440kg of uranium enriched to a purity of 60%, just one step below weapons-grade. Nor does regime change — which Israel continued to demand as a war goal right up to the end, while America stopped mentioning regime change to focus entirely on the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — look likely even after the battering that Iran has endured.
Economic pressure after military defeat may now be the most likely path to regime change. If the Americans had seized Kharg Island, cutting Iran’s oil revenues by 90%, the resulting economic suffering could have led the people of Iran to again take to the streets in mass protests, as they did in January. If that had happened, the results could have been different from the result during the last protests, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij have been so weakened militarily, from wave upon wave of American and Israeli attacks, and the morale of their combatants fallen so low, they may not be either have been willing or able to scare the protesters into submission. Now, however, we will not know what might have been.
KK says
War is deceit. The muhammadists are experts at it as well as subterfuge.
Keys says
Yes.
All truces, cease fires, and pauses in war by Mohammadans are temporary – no matter the length – hours, weeks, decades, or centuries – because Islam is perpetual war against Infidels by command of Allah and his messenger until Islam is the supreme and infidels submit . Dar al Harb.
gravenimage says
Yes–they are just Hudnas, used only until Muslims have a chance to rearm.
Trico says
If anyone else besides me wondered what the hell “The War That Gang Agley” means, I looked it up. It’s a Scots phrase meaning “go often awry” or “go wrong,”
In short, The War That Gang Agley means The War That Went Astray or did not go as expected. Its origins apparently stem from the Scottish poet Robert Burns from his 1785 poem, “To a Mouse,” which includes the line, “The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft agley,” often phrased in English as “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.”
gravenimage says
Aye, thon it is…
Walter Sieruk says
Shame on President Trump to comprise with that wicked Islamic tyranny so that it will remain in existence and further brutally oppress maim and murders the Iranians people.
For the people of Iran really should have much support, and constant support, which tragically they didn’t get ,to be able fight back against that horrendous tyrannical regime and then establish a legitimate government, which ensure and respects basic human rights..
In other words, the Iranian people have had unlimited US aid , in their righteous and just right to rise up to overthrow that horrendously brutal cruel viciously oppressive malicious and murderous tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran, After that they may have the chance to establish a legitimate, genuine , government which ensures and respects the basic natural human rights of its citizens.
For those ayatollahs mullahs and the other Muslim despots in tyrannical control in that Islamic regime of Iran terribly oppressed the Iranian people through their thugs in uniform who are called the “Islamic Revolutionary guards.’
Therefore, it’s no wonder that the people of Iran are celebrating that they are free of those tyrants in power in Iran. Nevertheless, because the that “mullah regime’s Islamic state police, Revolutionary guards, many Iranians still live in fear of those Muslim dictators of that Islamic tyranny.
As Benjamin Franklin in his periodical entitled POOR RICHARD’S ALMANAC printed, “For it reads “Those who are feared are also hated. “Nevertheless, there are limits to how far fear can suppress a terribly abused and oppressed people.
For the Iranian people had “reached a point where fear is no longer a deterrent” In high-level meetings, official regime official said.. He also remarked that the “People are extremely angry,” he said, adding a US attack could lead Iranians to rise up again. “The wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear left.”
For that tyrant Ayatollah Khamenei when he was alive and in power, was an enemy the Iranian people, through that misery and death inflecting horrific Islamic tyranny of Iran, which is evil in sense of that word, he pushes the people too far. Therefore, that Islamic tyranny should be and needs to be overthrown and replaced with a genuine government, which respects and safeguards that natural human rights and freedom which of the people should of Iran have.
Therefore, it’s fitting to relate to the concepts, precepts and guidelines of the Intellect philosopher John Locke, His basic principles. very much apply to this situation in Iran.
For Mr. Locke taught that any good government has the duty to ensure the security and safety of its citizens, So the people under the bondage and oppression of a tyrannical government do have every natural and ethical right to overthrow that terrible and oppressive tyrannical government.
Walter Sieruk says
It’s no wonder, at all that the Iranian people feel that they have been betrayed by President Trump. First he promised that he would aid them in overthrowing that tyrannical regime that oppressive and harms them in many ways them so severely, since in would not stop committing mass murder of the Iranian protesters who were only demanding their basic natural human rights.
Then Trump does turns around and is very willing to have “talks” with the representatives of that same tyranny has murdered many Iranian protesters, that he would let those murdering despots remain in power in their same regime if they agree make changes in their agenda.
This certainly has a foil smell of treachery by Donald Trump towards the people of Iran.
In addition, Trump would then not only be treacherous, but he would be ignorant gullible and naive if he really would trust any promise made be those lying dictators of to keep their would in anything that they might promise.
Karen Dowden says
While I feel ‘treachery’ is an overly strong word, remember President Trump does not understand the depth of true Islam. He is a deal maker and believes in finding a palatable/comfortable decision for all parties, not realising that will never work with the IRGC. The Iranian people I feel, were looking for the US to actually go in and overthrow the IRGC. As regards international ‘law’, nations are not supposed to butt in to do this. The body that was supposed to take a stand was or is the UN – unfortunately a farcical and disgraceful excuse for an international organisation. At the end of the day once the IRGC remain in power nothing will change. Maybe some sort of overseeing group should go in and monitor, starting with a new election. Again, the UN needs to dictate this. This will not happen so sadly and tragically nothing changes!
dumbledoresarmy says
I just hope that our friends the Yanks (I am an Aussie) and the Israelis will make maximum use of this brief ‘break’ on their OWN account… to refresh their men and RESTOCK THE ARSENALS. Because it’s not ‘if’ but WHEN the next mohammedan assault will take place. If you know they’re going to breach the ceasefire (most likely while loudly and mendaciously claiming that it was YOU that broke it; that’s been mohammedan tactics since waaaaay back, all the way back to Mohammed) then… you have to be all prepared to bring down the hammer AGAIN, a lot harder than the first time. Watch the bastards. Watch them. And DON’T engage in wishful thinking. DON’T drop your guard for one second. That was Israel’s error, in the months or years prior to 7 October 2023. NEVER drop your guard. ASSUME that the mohammedans are cooking up something nasty and be ready to meet whatever it is, with devastating force.
Karen Dowden says
Well said. These people think nothing of ceasefires or treaties.