This is big.
The United Arab Emirates has just announced that it’s leaving OPEC in order to boost production in order to support the Iran War. The UAE was a founding member of OPEC and it’s one of the largest oil producers.
OPEC nations have mixed positions on the Iran war. Qatar is Iran’s closest Gulf ally, but it had left back in 2019. The Saudis have been publicly critical of the war while privately supportive of it (the situation is further complicated by various factions within Saudi Arabia and MBS trying to have it all ways in every way at the same time) and they have agreed to boost oil production. Their agreement to do so was crucial to any U.S. intervention against Iran which is why they ultimately had the deciding vote on whether the Trump administration would hit Iran.
But the UAE appears to be going further after a deal with the Trump administration.
The United Arab Emirates stunned the already reeling global energy markets Tuesday by announcing it is quitting both OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporters’ cartel and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia—and doing so just days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly backed an emergency dollar swap line for Abu Dhabi before the U.S. Senate.
Without the UAE and Qatar, and with shifts in Venezuela after Trump’s takedown of Maduro, OPEC looks weaker than ever.
Wellington says
Trump keeps playing three-dimensional chess while so many others aren’t even playing checkers. And yes, the person playing three-dimensional chess is not guaranteed to win, but, a la JFK, such a person has placed himself in the arena, risking all, while Lilliputians aplenty proceed so annoyingly with their very dreadful and petty little moral points and nitpicking—and risking nothing.
The UAE leaving the OPEC is indicative of the real possibility that Trump is winning the game but there is still no final outcome. In the meantime the vast majority of Trump’s critics remain mental midgets, Lilliputians in all regards. Though sometimes myself questioning the man, I’m rooting for him completely because it should be obvious by now that if Trump fails, America and what’s left of the Werst will fail and that is a prospect that only the stupid or vile could want. Unfortunately, there are many stupid and vile people out there. Way too many.
Taffy says
OPEC is a completely different organization from the days when it was run by Sheik Yamani, who orchestrated the 1972 oil crisis and OPEC’s stranglehold on the oil market as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister until 1986. OPEC was always operating an unstable economic enterprise because of the inherent temptation to cheat on quotas by its member countries and OPEC non-members to compete. Since its heyday, other non-OPEC oil producers tempered OPEC’s monopoly influence. But Biden gave OPEC a temporary rebound by killing the Keystone pipeline and limiting offshore drilling.
The exit of the UAE from OPEC is however OPEC’s death knell. They can produce enough oil by themselves to offset any quantity reduction mandated by 5he remainin* members.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Actually, the real muscle in OPEC is Saudi Arabia. If one tosses in OPEC+, then there is Russia as well: Venezuela is a shadow of its former self, and anyway, the US now runs it
During the Sheikh Yamani era, all the other Gulf states were proteges of Saudi Arabia. Ever since the various Iraq wars, that stranglehold has loosened, once Riyadh was exposed as a paper tiger. In 2017, Qatar’s differences w/ its neighbors caused them to leave OPEC, and now, Emirates, which has different geopolitical objectives than Riyadh in Yemen and maybe in Sudan as well, has differences as well that have caused them to part company
What this means is that OPEC is no longer a single monopoly: Emirates and Qatar will do whatever is in their own interests, independent of OPEC. Same is actually true about Russia as well, and also future Iranian and Venezuelan governments. This will no longer be a cartel, but multiple energy suppliers competing w/ each other like Dell vs HP vs Acer vs Lenovo…. Which is good for energy consumers
James Lincoln says
I remember – all too well – both the 1973 in 1979 oil crises orchestrated by OPEC.
Glad to see OPEC’s significance dwindling – especially with robust US oil production.
Cynthia says
The UAE is the most enlightened of the Arab world. They embrace western values and rally to the cause of peace with Israel and the US.
They are pragmatists and want a business/tech economy alongside oil profits.
Iran is livid at the Gulf states for leaning towards the west instead of Islamism.
That’s why they have been so brutally attacked.
Mike Ramirez says
Some Gulf States may lean toward the West but it’s solely for economic reasons and for giving the appearance of favoring partnership. However, the Constitutions of all Muslim nations still regard the religion of Islam and Sharia rule as their source of governance being superior to the West. The real situation becomes an ongoing sectarian power struggle between Sunni and Shi’a factions. Iran is definitely a threat to Israel and America but also a threat to Saudi Arabia and any Islamic nation that favors dealing with the West. Thus, if the Islamic Republic of Iran is totally wiped out politically, the Shi’a mentality will still continue elsewhere and, at the same time, Sunni nations will still have the same goal of eventual global conquest over Western Civilization in order to establish a One World Government (Shari’a) and One World Religion (Islam). Note: America and Israel along with some Gulf states may combine to defeat Iran but Saudi Arabia, will never be a true ally to both Israel and America. Remember that the inscription on the flag of Saudi Arabia is the Shahada, Islamic statement of faith.
Greg says
It takes an ill wind…..
Billy says
President Trump needs to understand that the Sunni Muslim Nations(eg. Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.) and the Shia Muslim Nations(eg. Iran) are ALL enemies of America, Israel, and Non-Muslims as taught in Islamic Law and in Islam’s Qur’an(Qur’an 9:5, 29, 111; 49:15, etc.). In fact, the Sunni Nations have funded Muslim propaganda in American and Western Universities for decades with Muslim discrimination, segregation, violence, and terrorism. Muslims are Totalitarian Terrorists of Allah. After all, Allah in Qur’an 8:39 says, “And engage in war with them[Non-Muslims] until there will not be sedition and the religion will be completely to Allah…”
Allah rewards Muslims, Terrorists of Allah, with Paradise when they kill and are killed in Jihad for Allah, war against Non-Muslims with MUSLIM MONEY and with MUSLIM LIVES to make Islam supreme. Allah in Qur’an 49:15 teaches, “Surely the believers[Muslims] are only those who believed in Allah and his messenger. They do not doubt, and they performed JIHAD with their MONEY and their LIVES for the sake of Allah. Those are the truthful.” See also Qur’an 2:191; 4:89, 91; 9:5, 29, 111; 48:29, etc.
Larry Estavan says
THIS DAY IN JIHAD Beirut Embassy Bombing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdCRUCV9kqo