The IDF and the American Military Battered Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program — Can It Rebuild?

The IDF and the American military destroyed thousands of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ballistic missiles, some of which were on launchers when they were hit, others hidden all over the country both above ground, and in a vast network of underground tunnels. Both countries also attacked and flattened a group of plants that manufactured ballistic missiles. The Israelis now believe that Iran is down to its last thousand ballistic missiles, and that it will take the Islamic Republic as much as ten years to reconstitute its ballistic missile program. But that timeline could be greatly shortened if China were to help Iran rebuild that program.

More on what Chinese help could mean for Iran’s ballistic missile program can be found here: “Without Chinese help, it will take years for Iran to have thousands of missiles,” by Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, April 17, 2026:

If Iran does not get heavy Chinese help with reconstituting its ballistic missiles program, the damage the Israeli and American militaries caused it means the regime will not be able to obtain thousands of missiles for multiple years, the IDF said on Friday.

On the other hand, the flip side of this IDF view is that if Beijing does go all in to help Tehran rebuild its ballistic missile program, the recovery may be much quicker, and in unpredictable ways.

The IDF’s positive scenario is based on the US and Israel having struck over 2,600 Iranian military industrial sites, including a vast number of targets connected to Iran’s ballistic missile apparatus….

The IDF quoted Iran President Masoud Pezeskhian putting the losses at a minimum of $150 billion, and the military expects that number to grow substantially once the regime has enough time post-ceasefire to visit and assess all the areas where it was struck….

In rebuilding its ballistic missile program, where will Iran come up with the money? If even President Pezeskhian admits that Iran has already lost “a minimum of $150 billion” that it spent on its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, that have now gone up in smoke, how will Iran, with its economy in ruins, be able to fund a renewal of the ballistic missile program? How many years will it take, given how little Iran can afford to spend on that program each year, in order to build many thousands of missiles? The Israelis think it would take at least ten years… unless China comes to Iran’s rescue.

The Israelis and Americans struck many Iranian companies so hard that their factories lie in ruins. Some of those companies have simply closed down, meaning that their workers are now unemployed. The popular discontent over the regime’s mismanagement of the economy, and its misallocation of resources, in choosing to spend such colossal sums on weapons systems rather than on education, health, and housing, will only grow as the unemployment rate steadily increases, the result of businesses shutting down because of the damage to their plants.

All of this will impact the ability of the Islamic regime, currently led by Mojtaba Khameini, the son of assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to remain in power in Iran, said the IDF….

Mojtaba will need to compete with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other power centers if he wants to remain in control, which will also depend on when he might recover sufficiently from his wounds to establish a more public presence as ruler.

For all we know, Mojtaba’s face may have been gravely and permanently disfigured, giving him the appearance of a boris-karlovian monster, making it impossible for him to appear in public. And if he is unable to do that, he will lose any hold he might have had over supporters of the regime, and someone, most likely a senior military commander from the IRGC, will take his place.

Regarding the 60% enriched uranium inside Iran under the rubble of multiple nuclear facilities, the IDF is confident that the US will succeed in convincing the Islamic regime to allow this to be removed to a third country or to be diluted.

This appears to be one of the concessions the Iranians have now made to Trump, who has announced Iran’s readiness to turn over the 440kg. of uranium enriched to a level of 60% to a third party — possibly the IAEA — either to hold onto or to dilute it in order to lower its enrichment level.

The IDF believes that without help from China, it will take Iran at least ten years to build back up to its prewar level of weaponry, with the focus on its ballistic missile program. But there are many obstacles in the way that should prevent China from doing this. First, Iran is now, and will be for the next few years, too broke to fully pay the Chinese for their services. The Chinese are unlikely to extend the full amount of credit that would be necessary. But even if they were prepared to do so, others — the United States, the Gulf Arab states, and Europe — could apply economic pressure on China not to help Iran rebuild its weapons. The Americans and Europeans could threaten anew to impose tariffs on Chinese goods if China helps rebuild Iran’s weapons industry. The Gulf Arab states could hold out both a threat and a promise. The threat would be to withhold oil sales to China, which is almost completely dependent on the Gulf states for its oil. The promise would be to hire Chinese firms to take major roles in the various building projects the Arab monarchs have in the works. Especially desirable for the Chinese would be being given a major role in building the four NEOM cities that Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is beginning to build in his country’s northwest. The Crown Prince can make it clear there will be no contracts for China to build infrastructure in his country if Beijing helps Iran to rebuild its weapons plants. That would be a most persuasive threat.