The greatest loser in the current war is not Iran, nor the United States, nor Israel. It is the GCC countries. They have learned that the American airmen and planes they hosted could not always protect them from Iranian missiles and drones, but their presence in GCC countries was all the excuse Iran needed to bomb those countries. Now they are wondering whether to have the Americans continue to stay in their countries, given that the American bases have become important targets of Iranian attacks, or to ask them to leave, which means those countries will no longer have American protection right on site.
When a $2 million dollar missile has to intercept an Iranian drone costing $40,000, eventually such interceptions become economically unsustainable.
While the GCC nations, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have threatened to retaliate directly against Iran, they have not done so as yet. They are afraid of antagonizing Iran still further, and are hoping, by keeping their heads down, that Iran will stop attacking them and concentrate its attacks, using missiles and drones, on the U.S. and Israel. It is clear that the Iranians have had no qualms about attacking fellow Muslim states, and are likely to continue attacking the GCC nations that are incapable of striking back.
The Iranians have managed to keep launching ballistic missiles at the Gulf states; they may have many more of these missiles than either the US or Israeli defense analysts had realized at the beginning of the war. But at this point, in mid-April, it seems that the Americans have seized the initiative in the Strait of Hormuz. Instead of pleading with Iran to reopen the Strait to international shipping, Trump has ordered American warships to blockade all Iranian ports on the Gulf, so that Iran, too, like the Arab oil states that can no longer use the Strait of Hormuz, won’t be able to ship its oil anywhere, and the Islamic Republic’s total economic collapse should soon follow.
The Iranian leaders are confused, scared, full of hollow bravado, while they wonder who among them will Israel assassinate next. Iran’s command-and-control centers are largely destroyed, and it is entirely unclear who is now running things in the public absence of Mojtaba Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen since Mojtaba’s father, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed. It is believed that his face is now too deformed to have him appear in public. Despite the Iranian leaders’ seeming confidence, the more realistic among them must know that both Israel and the United States have badly battered their military. “In the Gulf, states are ‘paying the price’ for a war they didn’t start,” by Lucia Stein and Tim Swanston, ABC.net.au,
Atlantic Council distinguished fellow Brett McGurk, who has served in top national security roles under administrations of both US political parties, said to “take a signal” from what Iran was doing with its “significant missile and drone launches.”
“They’re trying to send a signal to the Gulf states: There’s a new equation here, and it favours us,” he told CNN.
The “equation” to which Brett McGurk alludes is this: the expense of intercepting Iran’s drone swarms and ballistic missiles, of which it still has many more than initially believed by the Pentagon, is many times greater than the cost of those interceptors. Gradually the cost of such an asymmetric war will become apparent, and the anti-war sentiment in the United States is then likely to explode. The American people are keenly aware of the more than four trillion dollars the U.S. spent on the two senseless and expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both these wars ended in ultimate defeat for America. The Taliban again control Afghanistan, and an Iraqi regime hostile to America, one that hosts the Iran-linked terror group Kata’ib Hezbollah, now rules in Baghdad.
Iran has lost not just most of its store of ballistic missiles, its ballistic missile plants, and its nuclear enrichment facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. It has also lost the trust of every single one of its Gulf Arab neighbors. Even Iran’s former friend Qatar, having been hit hard by Iranian missiles and drones, now sees Iran as an enemy.
Now Iran is demanding “compensation” from five Arab states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan — for the damage that has been done to Iran’s infrastructure, not by those countries directly, but by the Americans who have military bases in those countries. Of course there is not the slightest chance any of the five will pay a dime to Tehran.
Iran now stands alone in the Gulf, having earned the mistrust and hatred of all of its neighbors. And it is hard to see how it will ever recover.
Tony says
To Sunni Muslims, the Iran War is a blessing because the Sunni Muslims(eg. Turkey) will have a better chance of conquering the Shia Muslims in Iran. According to Muslims, the Iran War has the further divided and weakened the Non-Muslims in Europe and the West against America and Israel. Furthermore, Islamization under Islamic Law marches on through Western Institutions where there can be only ONE. As a result, Muslims can now imagine with more evidence that Islamic Law will rule in the West as well(Qur’an 9:5, 29, 111; 49:14, etc.). Allah in Qur’an 8:39 says, “And engage in war with them[Non-Muslims] until there will not be sedition and the religion will be completely to Allah…”
Billy says
With President Trump under strong Sunni Muslim influence because the Sunnis ‘voiced support’ for President Trump and because Iran ‘indiscriminately’ attacked the Sunni Countries with rockets and drones(eg. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey, etc.), Islamic Law propagates in American institutions, cities, and states with minimal push back against Islamization. Muslims can commit crimes while Non-Muslims blame ISIS, Islamists, Iran, etc. instead of Islamic Law or even Islam. Brilliant success for Islamic Law growing in the West! This is the goal, to ultimately conquer America, Israel, and the West under Islamic Law! There is greater hope for Islam! Besides, the Shia Muslims gave their life for Allah in Paradise. Allah in Qur’an 9:111 says, “Surely Allah has purchased from the believers[Muslims] their souls and their money so that they may have the garden[Heavenly Paradise]. They engage in war for the sake of Allah[ie. Allah’s Cause to make Islam Supreme], so they kill and are killed…”.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
All this assumes that the Iranian people have no agency of their own. There is now little tolerance for islam in Iran as a whole – either sunni or shi’a. Note that the shi’a have the same fanatical devotion to Muhammad as the sunnis do: it’s just that they share that b/w a bunch of their favorite imams (all 12 are not equal) That’s a part of the reason why the islamic regime is not only drawing supporters from Iraq and Lebanon (Hizbullah), but also sunni Afghanistan and Pakistan
Reza Pahlavi has already drawn a line in the sand stating that Iran’s territorial integrity is non-negotiable. Also, non-Farsi minorities in Iran, like the Kurds, Balochis, Arabs and Azeris, have shown no signs of wanting to secede from Tehran. They’re pretty much united w/ Persians in wanting to end the islamic regime and replace it w/ a secular democracy
Winston 101 says
Infidel et al,
From your keyboard to Reality!
I so hope the people of Iran have had enough of any Islam and its hideous version of reality.
May they enshrine the separation of any religion and state as a First Pillar to an Iranian Constitution.
I long for the time when we can see Iranians celebrating in the streets, women burning their hijabs and shaming those duplicitous women in the West that said all cultures are of equal value. Iranian women can proclaim that it was NOT a choice. There is no choice under Islam for anyone for anything. The very word “Islam” means submit.
Do you think that while Iranians may be done with Islam are they also done with the other factions of the ’79 revolution – the Communist/Socialists?
It would be a tragedy, of truly epic proportions, to exchange a religious totalitarian state
for an atheist totalitarian state – as happened in Russia, 1917.
Any thoughts from Infidel and all?
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Winston
According to the GAMAAN opinion polls, Iranians are split 40%-40% b/w monarchy & democracy, w/ the remaining saying that it doesn’t matter. I’m not sure whether the streets are an indication, but most of the slogans have been in support of Pahlavi, but against the Mojahideen Khalq, which is an islamo-Marxist group, much like the PLO. Given all that, I somehow doubt that the Leftists will come to power in Iran. Particularly since China, which today leads the world communist movement, is an ally of the islamic regime
Westman says
There is one weapon still raw and under used which could provide the reach necessary to finish the Iranian Regime, and that is weaponized Artificial Intelligence(AI).
We remember Stuxnet, a delivered virus, destroying Iranian uranium enrichment centrifuges, yet it was just an infection which exploited commercial controllers. An AI in Iran’s computing systems could monitor and decrypt communication/phone systems to locate leaders, exploit undiscovered weaknesses in programmed systems, and carry out finely targeted attacks.
Bombs have limited targeted granularity whether dropped, guided, or self-propelled and the cost of interception is usually asymetrical. AI could have the granularity to seek, dynamically create means of disablement, and ruin specific devices central to war machines. It could eavesdrop on planning, locate leadership targets, and disable Iranian oil tankers. There would be many other possible exploits.
In short, Iran may be the testing ground for weaponizing AI to reduce the use of the war’s hi-tech, expensive weapons. One can imagine a Mullah frightened to use his phone, turn on the TV, or walk out the door.
Wellington says
Fine idea and to the extent it is further implemented I suspect it will be led by the Israelis.
Winston 101 says
The military bilateral security agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia was put in place after WWII. This agreement was part of the world shipping lanes protection the U.S. offered as a complement to the economic package of The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944.
Economic recovery is not possible if you can’t safely ship your goods to the country you’ve sold them to. Think if every country had to have a navy to battle Somali type pirates along each of their coastlines.
This complement was put in place, after WWII, when the U.S. was the only navy in the world that could make such an offer. It was an “enticement” to various countries that the U.S. would protect world shipping trade if that countries foreign policy aligned with the U.S. as opposed to the U.S.S.R.
With the fall of the Soviet Union all these agreements are slowly disintegrating, e.g. NATO etc.
The agreements and relationships the U.S. thought it had with Western countries are changing, but that’s another subject.
What other country is Saudi Arabia, realistically, going to go to as an alternative to the U.S.?
The asymmetric cost of missiles v. drones is a big problem – for now. War always presents you with a situation you couldn’t/didn’t anticipate. That’s the nature of war. It is also why leaders of war have to deal with the reality of unforeseen obstacles and respond effectively when they arise.
This just my perspective and as always, I could be wrong. I’d be interested to hear others.
Wellington says
Your analysis serves as a major argument for why America must remain, clearly, the greatest power in the world. No other nation can be entrusted with this because of either nefarious intentions (e.g., China) or inability (e.g., Israel). It’s America here or nothing (or even worse than nothing).
What most concerns me in all this is no longer can the fate of America be entrusted to either major American political party. It’s now down to one since the Democratic Party has lost its collective mind and has become itself a danger to America and thus to all of humanity functioning optimally.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Every treaty that the US signed prior to 1992, when the Soviet Union fell, needs to be revisited. Whether it’s membership in clubs like NATO, or bilateral treaties w/ countries like Saudi Arabia. In this case of Saudi Arabia, once the islamic regime in Iran falls, who will we need to protect them from? Iran? Reza Pahlavi has already stated that they won’t be a threat to their Arab neighbors. Israel? Jerusalem would like to sign the Abraham Accords w/ Riyadh. Turkey? Well, that’s a threat, but then the Saudis should work out arrangements w/ Turkey’s other adversaries, like Greece, Armenia, Israel and Cyprus
We need to totally revisit everything that we had signed before 1992, and maybe as a default, deprecate every one of them, and re-visit those that are worth re-visiting. For instance, stop pretending that Russia is the inheritor of the treaties that the Soviets signed, and insist that if the Kremlin wants something signed, it has to be examined from scratch. Same w/ all our NATO “allies”, none of who are doing anything tangible in Iran