Now that the IDF has destroyed 75% of Iran’s missile launchers, roughly 415 units, and the Americans together with the Israelis have destroyed so many of Iran’s ballistic missiles, while hundreds of others have been used up by the Iranians in attacks on Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, the Iranians have decided that they will husband their remaining supply of ballistic missiles, believed by the Israelis to number 2,500, and only launch those that have very large warheads and weigh at least one ton. Fewer launches, but those launched with much bigger payloads, is the order of the day.
More on this announcement, meant to terrify Iran’s enemies, especially the Sunni Arab states in the Gulf, even as the country’s military staggers under repeated attacks by Israel and the United States on its ballistic missiles, missile launchers, and underground stockpiles of weapons, that include both both missiles and drones, can be found here: “Iran’s IRGC commander vows to only use missiles with warheads weighing at least one ton – report,” by Maya Zanger-Nadis, Jerusalem Post, March 9, 2026:
Iran will only launch missiles with warheads weighing over one ton, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander Majid Mousavi said on Monday, according to Iranian opposition outlet Iran International.
To put this in perspective: At the outset of the current conflict with Iran, a missile weighing hundreds of kilograms but less than one ton completely destroyed a building in Tel Aviv.
Mousavi added that the “wavelength” and intensity of missile launches will increase, with attacks broadening in scope, according to Iran International.
Iran, though weakened by US and Israeli strikes, still has a powerful arsenal at its disposal, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing Martin Sampson, former UK defense adviser and leading Middle East military analyst.
These weapons include cruise missiles, cyber warfare, and mines, according to the WSJ, which quoted Sampson as saying that Iran “potentially has the ability to escalate much more broadly” with its current reserve.
Iran has begun using cluster munitions in recent strikes, resulting in the killing and wounding of Israeli civilians. Cluster munitions are known to be highly destructive; Iran also used them against Israel in the 12-Day War in the summer of 2025….
President Trump has claimed that the war is close to being over. Would that it were. But we know that Iran still has, according to the IDF, some 2,500 ballistic missiles in its current arsenal, despite the last ten days in which that store of missiles has been greatly reduced. More than 1,000 missiles have been destroyed inside Iran by the IDF, while Iran has lobbed 400 missiles at Israel and about 700 at the Arab states, with most of them intercepted or falling harmlessly in empty fields. Doing the math, we know that at the start of the war, Iran must have had close to 4,000 ballistic missiles. The Israelis knew that without the war, given Iran’s ability to build at least 300 missiles a month, Iran could have 8,000 ballistic missiles, some of them capable of hitting Europe and even America, by 2027.
Now Iran’s Defense Minister Mousavi insists that his country still has plenty of such missiles, though every day dozens more are either destroyed on the ground inside Iran by Israeli and American strikes, or are used up by Iran in continuing, in ever diminishing numbers, to strike Israel and seven Arab states (the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, and Iraq) as well as on two non-Arab states (Azerbaijan, Turkey).
As of March 9, Iran launched 20 missiles at Israel, while on February 28, the first day of the war, it had launched 90; clearly Iran’s “killing store” — as A.E. Housman would put it — is being husbanded by the regime to last longer. Mousavi is right; his country still has many missiles, though far less than it had at the beginning of the war. He is hoping that his country will make up in quality — missiles weighing at least one ton — what it has lost in quantity. This is not an idle boast. And that is why Trump’s insistence that the war is “almost complete” and will soon be over — though Iran responded immediately to Trump’s claim, saying that the “war will be over when we decide” — has to be ignored by the IDF, which must keep on keeping on in its war of self-defense against the Islamic Republic.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander is not a Defense Minister. From what I understand, Iran’s Defense Minister was among those killed, so now Majid Mousavi is left as the spokesman for whatever is left of their air force
That said, it’s time that the Israelis targeted and hunted down the remaining leaders of the regime – Pezeshkian, Larijani, Aragchi
Michelle says
I live in a liberal place. Some of the commentary I have heard on this Iran issue is that Trump stepped on a hornet’s nest and got us into trouble, and bit off more than he can chew. I am sure that is how CNN and MSNBC are framing this. I think that before the commentary was to blame Iran’s economy, but then you cannot ignore the lack of basic freedoms and human rights abuses in Iran. Basically, instead of seeing this as ideologically and or religiously motivated, this is seen as the republicans or Trump’s fault. The ignorance of Islam is widespread. It is see no Islam, hear no Islam.
Woody says
Ma belle, I don’t concur. I think that approximately 80% of the European population is acutely aware of the dangers mohamedanism poses, but our leaders just won’t budge enough. To be sure, they’re becoming aware of the dangers their electorate poses to them, but they’re just too obsessed with their own wrong notion of freedom of reliigion and freedom of speech. And that obsession comes from a lack of knowledge of/about mohamedanism and its, to say it bluntly, criminal orthodoxy and aims. And I’m referring here (a.o.) to suras 8: 39 and 2: 191. They just haven’t the foggiest. And that can only lead to one conclusion: either you do know and thereby are disqualified for your job, or you don’t know and thereby are disqualified for your job.
gravenimage says
Yes, MIchelle–that is how MSNBC (now MSNOW) is framing things. No mention of the horror Iran is, either to its own people of in backing Jihad terror, particularly against democratic Isreal.
Captain Quirk says
Here’s a chat with chatgpt that I had this morning: ‘So given the rate of attrition of the missile launchers, how long would it take to bring the firing of missiles down to approximately 0?
We can make a rough attrition model using the numbers that have been reported. The key point is that missile firing capability is constrained much more by launchers than by missiles.
Below is a simple estimate based on current publicly reported figures.
1. Starting launcher numbers and losses
Most estimates say Iran had roughly:
≈400–450 ballistic-missile launchers before the war
≈100–200 remaining now
That implies ≈60–75% destroyed so far.
The war began Feb 28, so roughly 10–14 days of operations.
Approximate attrition rate
If we assume:
Start: ≈425 launchers (midpoint)
Remaining: ≈150 (midpoint)
Destroyed: ≈275
Over ~12 days:
≈23 launchers destroyed per day (average)
2. How many launchers are needed to keep firing?
Missile launchers are mobile TELs (Transporter-Erector-Launchers).
Typical operational constraints:
One launcher usually fires 1–2 missiles before relocating
Reloading takes hours to days
Once a launcher fires, it is much easier to detect and destroy
So firing many missiles per day requires dozens of launchers still functioning.
Example rough capacity:
Launchers remaining Likely daily firing capacity
150 dozens of missiles/day
80 small barrages
30 occasional launches
<10 sporadic single missiles
3. Extrapolating current attrition
If ~23 launchers/day continues:
Remaining launchers ≈ 150
Time to eliminate most:
150 ÷ 23 ≈ 6–7 days
But the attrition slows near the end, because:
launchers hide better
they fire less often
smaller numbers are harder to locate
So the realistic curve looks like:
Phase Launchers Estimated time
Heavy losses 150 → 60 ~3–4 days
Slower hunt 60 → 20 ~4–7 days
Sporadic capability <20 weeks
4. When missile fire approaches “~0”
Military planners usually define “negligible” fire as:
<1 missile every few days
Israeli officials reportedly say this level occurs when ~95% of launchers are destroyed.
If the initial number was ~425:
95% destroyed → ≈21 launchers left
Given the attrition trend:
Estimated timeline to near-zero missile firing
➡ ~7–14 more days
after the current point.'
gravenimage says
Thanks for those numbers.
OLD GUY says
Keep the hammer down, Iran is on its last leg, nothing less than total destruction of its leadership and supporters is required to set Iran free.
ed says
Translation
They are out of missiles
Captain Quirk says
No, they are running out of missile launchers, not missiles, but: no missile launchers => no missiles launched. In that sense you’re correct.
gravenimage says
Iran’s Defense Minister Will Only Launch Missiles Weighing At Least One Ton
……………………………………………..
Running out of bombs, huh?