The Islamic Republic several days ago made the biggest mistake in its 47-year-old history. Its strategy beggars belief. Tehran apparently came to the dreamy conclusion that if it launched ballistic missiles and drones at all of its Sunni Arab neighbors, aiming not just at American military bases but at civilian infrastructure — hotels, apartment buildings, government buildings, airports, oil refineries and more in Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan — those countries would plead with the Americans to stop attacking Iran. It was a crazy idea, and the Iranian rulers, with close to fifty of the country’s civilian and military leaders just killed, clearly have lost the plot. Instead of those Arab countries wanting to stop the war, they are now taking great satisfaction in Iran’s military being decimated. Already Qatar has struck back at Iran; the UAE and Saudi Arabia may soon follow. The Iranians, instead of stopping their attacks on the Gulf Arabs, are using up their ballistic missiles —86% of its prewar stock having been destroyed on the ground or intercepted in flight — to teach their neighbors a lesson.
More on Iran’s attacks, that have caused the Gulf Arabs to draw closer to Israel, can be found here: “Tehran’s miscalculation: How Iranian missiles brought Gulf states, Israel together – analysis,” by Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post, March 4, 2026:
To many, it seems like an end-of-days scenario: Qatar and Israel on the same team.
Who would have thought? In September, Israel attacked in Qatar, targeting terrorist leaders the Gulf state was housing. But here we are. After five days of war with Iran, the Iranians have succeeded in putting Israel and Qatar on the same team – to say nothing of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and even Saudi Arabia – all countries targeted over the past five days by Iranian missiles and drones.
By some estimates, Iran has fired more missiles and drones at Gulf states combined than at Israel.
And by other estimates, Iran has fired more missiles and drones at the UAE alone, than it has fired at Israel.
What Iran may have done is something Israel has long struggled to achieve diplomatically: place Israel and several Sunni Arab states on the same side of a regional conflict. By striking the Gulf states directly, Tehran has widened the war in a way that forces governments across the region to reconsider where their interests truly lie.
Within the first 48 hours, Tehran launched missiles and drones not only toward Israel but toward every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. What might initially have appeared to be a confrontation between Iran and the US and Israel quickly transformed into something wider – a regional conflict touching key Sunni Arab states.
And it was not only countries that have agreements with Israel that were targeted – the UAE and Bahrain – but also countries that have tried to maintain good relations with Iran, such as Qatar and Oman. Even Turkey announced on Wednesday that an Iranian missile was downed as it headed toward its airspace. By going after these countries, Iran is signaling that it wants everyone in the region to formally pick a side.
And they have picked a side — unanimously — the side that is landing blow after blow on Iran, the side of America and Israel.
Now there are signs that several of the Gulf states may soon join the offensive against Iran. Qatar reported that it had shot down two Iranian fighter planes in its airspace, and other states have activated their air defenses. Qatar also attacked Iran. The details of the Qatari strike — the weapons used, the targets, and the result — have not been made public. The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman, Majed al-Ansari, released an explanatory statement: “We are exercising our right in self defense and deterring Iranian attacks against our country.” Iran did not issue an immediate comment, but later denied that it had targeted Qatar. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani that Iranian missile attacks were directed at U.S. interests and not at Qatar.
This angered Qatar even more.
Iran has certainly shot itself in the foot. No, in both feet. If it continues to attack its Arab neighbors — now mostly with drones because it has 86% fewer ballistic missiles than it had when the war began on February 28, with every attack Iran will push the Arabs closer to Israel. And Mojtaba Khamenei, his father’s successor, is considered “hardline,” which means he will continue down the same idiotic path. Just yesterday, the Iranians sent a ballistic missile toward Turkey; a NATO missile, no doubt American, intercepted it in time. Erdogan has now been fulminating against Tehran. Wasn’t it just a year or two ago that Erdogan was suggesting the formation of a pan-Islamic army — one including Iran — with Turkey at its head, that would be able to destroy the Jewish state?
The Iranian government has threatened the Europeans with attacks if they dare to help the Americans. Worse still for Iran, on the fifth day of the war, on state television, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened the “complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure.” What else can the Arab states do, after such a warning, then join the Americans (and very quietly, the Israelis) as they try to put down the mad dogs yapping in their Tehran kennel?
Westman says
Apparently Khamenei left instructions for the IRGC to do its own targeting if he was killed. The IRGC attacks on Iran’s neighbors should leave them no doubt that the IRGC must be destroyed.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I think it’s more likely that the IRGC, having been rendered leaderless, are now just on autopilot and doing whatever they feel like
Tony says
This is VERY BADS NEWS for Israel, America, and the West because Sunni Muslims(eg. Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.) can gain more Sunni-Muslim power over the Shia Muslims while the ISLAMIZATION(Sharia and Islam’s True Jihad) advances in Europe, America, and the West as taught in Islam’s Qur’an(Qur’an 8:39; 9:5, 29, 111; 49:15, etc.).
Fundamentally, Islam functions like a subversive Terrorist-Criminal-Gang Enterprise as evidenced by the continuous, Muslim attacks against Non-Muslims. ISLAM IS A WAY OF LIFE AND A REIGN OF TERROR, THE DAILY PRACTICE OF ISLAMIC LAW(Qur’an 1:5; 3:51,101; 5:48, etc.). Allah in Qur’an 4:95 says, “Those believers who stay other than those who are substantially injured are not equal to those who perform jihad for the sake of Allah with their money and their lives…. Similar to a Foreign Terrorist Organization(FTO) designated by the USA Secretary of State, Islam and its Muslims are a MUSLIM TERRORIST ORGANIZATION(MTO) fighting against Non-Muslims to make Islam supreme and NOT A PEACEFUL religion under Western Law because Islam funds, teaches, and promotes Terrorist Criminal Organizations with Muslims as Terrorists for Allah(Qur’an 2:191; 4:89, 91; 9:5,29, 111; 45:18; 47:4; 49:15, etc.). Islam, its Organizations, its Mosques, its Schools, etc. must be banned as illegal for their funding, teaching, inciting, and promoting acts of discrimination, segregation, violence, and terrorism against Non-Muslims as taught in Islam’s Qur’an.
Muslims, A DEATH-CULT, make false claims and deceitful exaggerations, breed a grievance mentality, and aggravate divisions among people in a manner that allows for justification of terroristic violence(Qur’an 3:28,54; 7:99; 8:30, etc.). Allah in Qur’an 49:15 says, “Surely the believers[Muslims] are only those who believed in Allah and his messenger. They do not doubt, and they performed jihad with their MONEY and their LIVES for the sake of Allah. Those are the truthful.” As a result, Non-Muslims are marked for death by Islam and its Muslims.
Allah describes Muslim women in Jenna, Allah’s Paradise, as whores of Allah in Qur’an 56:37. Also, Allah stirs hatred, cursing, and punishment against Christians until the resurrection day when Qur’an 5:14 instructs, “And some of those who say, ‘Surely we are Nasara (Christians),’ we took their covenant. So they have forgotten a part of what they were reminded of, so we have stirred up ENMITY and HATRED among them until the resurrection day. And Allah will inform them of what they were doing.” See also Qur’an 2:225; 5:64; 60:4; 8:55.
Allah demands extortion payments, ‘Jizyah’, from Non-Muslims to humiliate them and make Islam supreme. Allah in Qur’an 9:29 commands, “Engage in war with those who do not believe in Allah nor in the last day. Nor forbid what Allah and his messenger forbid, nor believe in the religion of the truth among those who have given the book until they pay the jizyah out of hand and they are subdued.”
Allah teaches and promotes discrimination when Qur’an 4:101 says, “…Surely the infidels(Non-Muslims) were your clear enemies.” Allah disrespects and detests Jews and Christians for not being Muslims by teaching discrimination and segregation. So, Allah’s apostle in Sahih Muslim 26:5389 says, “Do not greet the Jews and the Christians before they greet you and when you meet any one of them on the roads force him to the narrowest part of it[where excrement and trash flow].”
MUSLIM BELIEVERS public pray but privately are a greater TERROR than Allah while undermining a society from within using the man-made book of lies and deceit, the Qur’an. Allah in Qur’an 59:13 says, “You[Muslims] are a greater terror in their chests than Allah. This is because they[Jews & Christians] are people who do not understand.” Islam must be banned as illegal, and we have the legal right to defend ourselves from Muslim attacks and violence.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I don’t agree that any of these countries are getting “pushed” towards Israel. All that is happening is that Iran is angering each one of them, but they’ll all revert to whatever position they have on Israel now. Turkey or Qatar won’t suddenly become pro-Israel after the war. Whereas Azerbaijan may remain on good terms w/ Israel, but if Jerusalem decides not to continue supporting Baku once Pahlavi returns, they might end up agreeing w/ Erdogan on Israel
I also think that w/ most of their command destroyed, the IRGC is now just randomly attacking anybody and everybody around it. Like I pointed out in a previous thread, a day after the Azeri president condoled Khamenei’s death, they launch an attack on Azerbaijan 😂🤣 The clearest evidence that that nobody in that group knows what’s going on, and each of them are doing their own thing
Wellington says
I’m not so sure I agree with you, Infidel. The religious zealots in Iran, or what’s left of them, directly attacking Sunni Arab nations could, yes possibly, push such Sunni Arab polities even further along in agreeing with the overall intent of the Abraham accords a la Israel that Trump put forward in his first term (and which the woeful Biden and his equally woeful handlers stupidly did away with).
Time will tell. Matters very fluid.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Wellington
Like Robert Spencer opined on a few shows that he was on, once the islamic-Iranian threat to Saudi Arabia and the other Arab sunni countries was gone, the latter would have no reason to befriend Israel, and therefore wouldn’t! The only reason the Abraham Accords were possible was Khamenei’s threats to those countries
It won’t even be gratitude, which is unheard of in islam. Like Hugh used to note on occasion, muslim loyalties can never be bought, only rented!
I used to think that Saudi Arabia might, but I no longer think that, given how MbS has warmed up towards both Turkey and Pakistan, and now has a defense pact w/ both those countries
Wellington says
I take your point, Infidel, about the Saudis (and other Arab states) being OK with the Abraham Accords first and foremost because of a nuclear-armed Iran but there are other reasons too to embrace such accords, including technology exchange, general prosperity, non-isolation from America and neutering the most violent Islamic dead-enders irrespective of Iran.
Perhaps, just perhaps, peace in the Middle East can be achieved IN SPITE OF Islam, though this is still a long shot. And what if a pro-Western and stable Iran emerges? This would also function as an incentive for many Arab states to follow suit lest a “new Iran” overtake a backward Arab world.
Moreover, I think Pakistan almost certainly hopeless but a post-Erdogan Turkey per an Ataturk model is not completely far-fetched. It happened once so why not again? The centuries-long enmity between Turks and Arabs (ditto for Persians and Arabs) is something Israel and America could play upon, especially in a post-Erdogan Anatolia, to the advantage of Israel and America.
Complexities aplenty out there in Middle East land. Opportunities abound, though I fully understand that, as usual, Islam is the main drag on optimal or even mediocre results.
Saint Louis says
That may be old news. The last two months changed this and Saudi Arabia is pitted up against the UAE, and they are not interested in Abraham Accords any longer.
They are hooked up with a dangerous Islamic stye, Pakistan, and don’t even tell me Trump loves Pakistan. Pakistan is trouble trouble trouble. Israel doesn’t need friends with friends such as Pakistan.
Would you make friends with a friend who is friends with a crack smoking Islamist? Probably not!
gravenimage says
Wellington has of course *never* advocated considering the appalling Pakistan to be an ally of ours.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Wellington
Agree w/ you about the Saudis and Pakistan
About Turkey though, I believe that most Turks, left to their devices, are more like Erdogan than Kemal. The latter had to abolish the caliphate and crack down on islam, which Turks weren’t really thrilled by. So decades later, when Erdogan emerged and started showing jihad themed tele-serials, that got their imagination. Also, he has evoked a lot of Turkish racial pride: celebrating 16 Turkic dynasties – 8 pre-islamic, 8 islamic, which spread from Kazakhstan and the subcontinent to Anatolia. He also founded the Organization of Turkic states – the Turkic equivalent of the Arab League, that has Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. (Ironically, Turkmenistan, where most of Turkey’s Turks originated, to date hasn’t joined)
After China, Turkey, and not Russia, is our #2 geopolitical adversary, if not enemy. They have allies from Malaysia to Somalia and various random countries in North Africa. As well as some Arab countries as well, such as Yemen, Somalia, Algeria, part of Libya and Qatar
As for Israel, once this Iranian threat is over, it’ll be new enmity from Turkey, as well as some of the Arab countries, like Qatar, Kuwait…
Cynthia says
There is a strategy by US of carrots and sticks that hopes the Arab countries will continue to fear them and Israel. In the meantime, the prosperity and modernity of the next few years may be a track they wish to continue.
However, you cannot take for granted that jihad will not rear its ugly head.
James Lincoln says
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not acting rationally.
If they had nuclear weapons, they would have likely used them.
Wellington says
No doubt, James, that such religious fanatics almost certainly would have used them—welcoming the 12th imam, the end of the world and all that rubbish.
At least the Russians and Chinese, bastards that they are, are not crazy. Those running Iran since 1979 have been both bastards AND crazy, which is not a good combo in most any scenario but especially when nuclear weapons are put into the mix. Time for a beer.
James Lincoln says
Wellington,
Thanks for your reply.
And yes, time for a beer…
Ralph says
The behaviors of the IRGC leads me to believe that they are best obliterated, not offered asylum for “seeming” to make nice and give up.