The IDF has now said that Israel’s goal was never to change the regime in Tehran itself, but to so weaken the regime’s power to repress its citizens as to create the conditions for the Iranians themselves to change the regime. There is a difference. More on Israel’s goal can be found here: “Senior Israeli defense sources: Iran regime change not military goal, creating conditions for it is,” by Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, March 11, 2026:
As doubts about the prospect of imminent regime change in Iran spike, senior defense sources have told The Jerusalem Post this is not and never was a military goal.
Rather, the IDF always hoped to enhance the conditions that might make regime change in Iran possible if the domestic opposition to the government would be ready to take to the streets again in sufficient numbers to topple the regime, the sources said.
The military would look positively at regime change and wanted to try to help the process, but it never had illusions that military action by itself would guarantee such an outcome, they said.
This message might contrast with the public line of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vacillated between calling publicly for Iranian protesters to erupt into the streets to bring about immediate regime change, as opposed to talking about it as a potential event and process that might take at least a year.
The distinction is important to the IDF, which feels the public should view the current war as a success based on the limited mission parameters defined for beforehand.
The primary purpose of the current war for Israel was to destroy the immediate threat of the roughly 4,000 ballistic missiles that Iran was thought to possess, consisting of both those that survived the attacks last June, and of the roughly 200-300 missiles that Iran produced in each of the eight months since then. A second goal was to continue, along with the Americans, to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, by re-attacking those enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and in Isfahan, that had been greatly damaged but, as we now know, not “obliterated,” in the Twelve-Day War, as well as a secret underground nuclear compound outside Tehran, which the Israelis recently discovered, where scientists were working on key components for nuclear weapons. The compound, known as Minzadehei, was targeted after Israeli intelligence tracked activities at the site linked to covert weapons.
The IDF attacks on weapons arsenals, the command-and-control centers, and the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia, and attacks on nuclear sites, are meant to remove imminent threats to the Jewish state. But another result of these attacks will be to weaken the power of the IRGC and the Basij to cow the Iranian people, 85% of whom are against the regime. Israel does not believe that it needs to keep fighting until regime change is achieved; that’s a tall order, and no more than the Americans do the Israelis want to be stuck for many months to a Tar Baby in Iran. They instead hope to “create the conditions” for the Iranians themselves, emboldened by the weakening of the forces of oppression, to return to the streets by the millions to demand an end to the regime. And the battering of Iran’s military will also, so it is hoped, cause members of the IRGC and Basij to begin to quit or even to defect to the side of the protesters.
The IDF has been destroying so many of Iran’s ballistic missiles, missile launchers — about 80% of those Iran had at the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion have been destroyed — and plants where the missiles are produced, that within a few weeks, that threat from ballistic missiles will have been effectively eliminated. The IDF has also struck IRGC leaders and killed most of its senior leaders, and has destroyed their weapons storehouses.
The IDF has killed the supreme leader, and wounded his son who was chosen by the Assembly of Experts to be his successor. It has also killed about 50 members of the senior leadership, both civilian and military. But regime change was never the objective for the IDF, even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested otherwise. Creating the conditions for regime change — meaning so weakening the regime militarily that it will no longer be able to frighten would-be protesters from going back on the streets by the millions — is quite enough for the IDF. And that is what the IDF is hoping to achieve before well-appareled April takes its bow.
Wellington says
Winning the war is not enough. Winning the peace is just as essential and there will be no peace for anyone if this regime one way or another survives.
OLD GUY says
Absolutely TRUE.
Wellington says
And, on a positive note, there is this:
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/03/13/brilliant-move-against-basij-oppressors-n2200182
Ugly 312 says
Solid turn on. Thank you for that. I appreciate it very much.
Koshs Shadow says
This is exactly how Israel has to behave. Calling for regime change means the Ayatollahs can say Iranians opposing their rule are Israeli agents.
Weakening the regime so Iranians can overthrow the regime makes that accusation harder to stick.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Yeah, that’s a good point. Although most Iranians do seem to be pro-Israel, so that such accusations don’t bother them in the least. However, it may not be good for any replacement regime to look like it’s propped up by Jerusalem
What Israel could say is that they are destroying the entire regime architecture that has opposed them, and anything beyond that is up to the Iranians. Although, why are doubts about regime change spiking? Once the IRGC/Basij is completely decimated, Iranians will be told that it’s okay to get back into the streets, and it’ll be impossible for what’s left of the regime to suppress them, However, instead of having a chaotic transition, the remaining political leaders of the regime – Pezeshkian on downwards – need to be captured or killed, and then the Reza Pahlavi transition team should be told that it’s okay to go into Iran and then make plans for the new transition
Daniel Triplett says
Let’s stop mowing the lawn and start taking care of business, once and for all.
As long as the bad guys have all the guns, nothing on the ground is ever going to change. (Hence, the entire reason our Forefathers gave us the Second Amendment).
Either we must put boots on the ground to fight and vanquish the Iranian government malignant/hostile toward us, or we must give guns to the Iranian People with whom we hope to have a cooperative government. Bombs from the air aren’t going to cut it against this hostile regime. This is a “siege” situation that they will win. They know they have the “time” to outlast the time constraints and patience the American People are willing to tolerate.
Westman says
I agree on arming Iranian citizens. The IRGC is no different than the Ayatollah concerning citizen’s lives – they don’t care. Islam replaced their conscience with dogma. There will never be a point at which they are unwilling to murder citizens to maintain privilege, power, and income. They are waiting in the streets with machine guns for any sign of a protest.
What’s needed is a clandestine night supply of arms so the citizens can pick off the IRGC at night – an Iranian underground movement.
James Lincoln says
Daniel Triplett says,
Either we must:
1. Put boots on the ground to fight and vanquish the Iranian government malignant/hostile toward us,
or we must:
2. Give guns to the Iranian People with whom we hope to have a cooperative government.
I prefer plan number 2.
Ugly 312 says
The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is inbound to ships in the AO. Hmm, what are they planning. Kharg Island ?
2500 in total, plus warships.
China might be laughing all the way to Taiwan. Careful with your ego DJT even though I support you to the fullest.
Walter Siwruk says
Maybe a “regime change” had not have been the goal of the Israel Defense Force , but a very good goal would be for the IDF to aid and assist the Iranians overthrow the oppressive brutal cruel murderous Islamic tyranny, and then the people of Iran may establish a legitimate, genuine, government in Iran which ensures and respects the basic human rights of its citizens.
David M says
Their goal was always a regime change, they just won’t admit it. Same as the US.
Walter Sieruk says
Let’s hope that is really, truly ,so.
STJOHNOFGRAFTON says
Israel’s goal should be to totally and ruthlessly humiliate the Islamic regime. Islam is based on shame-honour. Only when humiliation is total will there be real victory.
David M says
They need to get out soon, or this will turn into another Vietnam & ruin the world economy.