Britain’s Gorton and Denton by-election on Feb. 26 was more than just a local upset. It gave a glimpse into demographic changes that could shape U.S. politics.
The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer won with 41% and 14,980 votes, turning this Labour stronghold into the Greens’ first northern seat. Reform UK came second with 29% of the vote, and Labour finished third with 25%.
Turnout was low at 48%.
The main story: Muslim bloc power flipped a seat, and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s strategy did not work.
The seat’s divided nature tells the story. Manchester wards like Burnage, Gorton & Abbey Hey, Levenshulme, and Longsight are changing fast: 40% Muslim, 62% U.K.-born, and 30% are graduates or students.
In Longsight, 60% are Muslim and 52% U.K.-born, making it a diverse, urban area where Gaza is a common topic. The Greens succeeded by using multilingual flyers, focusing on Palestine, and promoting anti-Islamophobia messages.
Instead of attacking others, they built coalitions. That bloc, along with tactical left-wing voters, overshadowed everything else.
Tameside wards, including Denton North East, South, and West, feel very different: less than 3% Muslim, 86% U.K.-born, and over 80% white British. These are working-class areas with few graduates and strong local roots. Reform UK led here, getting over 40% in some places by appealing to “keep Britain British” sentiment. Still, Manchester’s voters decided the outcome.
This is a story of two different visions, almost like a modern Dickens novel.
Manchester is moving away from traditional English and British identity, with lower native birth rates, more multiculturalism, less connection to Christianity and old values, and a shift toward new cultural expressions. Tameside, on the other hand, is more cautious about fast cultural change, holding on to traditions and trying to keep established cultural identities.
It is similar to the old divide between East and West Germany.
The East kept its German identity, had little migration, and held onto traditions. The West became more multicultural, saw fewer native births, and its religious makeup changed.
Gorton-Denton is a smaller version of this: Manchester shows the changing face of old England, while Tameside tries to stay recognizably British. The Greens won by understanding that concentrated bloc votes and progressive alliances now matter more than nostalgia.
Farage’s role was chaotic.
Before the election, he avoided criticizing Muslims, maybe to appeal to more voters. But after losing, Farage accused others of “sectarian voting,” “cheating,” and “dangerous Muslim sectarianism.” He complained about “family voting,” with observers noting it in twelve percent of sampled cases, where husbands and wives crowded voting booths—the highest rate ever recorded. Democracy Volunteers flagged 68% of polling stations. No mosques were used as polling places; the council managed the process.
Still, Farage’s comments sparked controversy. Critics say he changes his stance: soft on Islam to grow Reform, but harsh when things go wrong. Either way, he seems unsettled, caught between his supporters and the need to win votes.
Now, America faces similar questions in its primaries. The Muslim population is under 2% nationally, but is expected to grow due to higher birth rates and migration.
CAIR reported 38 Muslim winners across the country last year. Zohran Mamdani won New York’s mayoral race with strong support for his socialist and pro-Palestine views. Ninety-seven percent of Muslim voters supported him, along with major donors, and Gaza became a key issue. Does this sound familiar?
If the Gorton-Denton approach shows up in other places, like Dearborn, Queens, or Minneapolis, organized turnout could affect close elections.
Strong support from certain communities may help some candidates, while others might choose more moderate strategies. Family-based turnout, like what was seen in the U.K., could change usual voting patterns. Demographic changes are likely to continue, with some areas keeping traditional majorities and others forming new coalitions.
The message is clear: Pay attention to demographic trends, or you might be surprised by changes in election results. Primaries are still important—voters may choose to stick with the status quo or join coalitions that want change.
The lesson from Britain is that traditions alone may not be enough when organized participation increases.
Peter McIlvenna serves as chief of staff to Lord Pearson of Rannoch in the UK’s House of Lords, hosts the Hearts of Oak podcast and is a fellow of the American Freedom Alliance. This article has been cross-posted from The Daily Signal with the author’s permission.
rick says
To be able to win candidates in UK because the Muslims comprise a majority of the district is a truly horror story. England must begin a deportation of illegals, especially Muslims, before the native Brits lose control of their own country to foreign muslims.
Wellington says
But will this happen?
Doesn’t look like it but what does look like it more and more by the year is that Britain is finished.
I so much want to be wrong about this.
Beans🫘 says
The system must go on, nobody wants it to collapse. The population must grow or at the minimum stay stable. That is why Muslims are there for, to have large amounts of children to keep the system afloat.
Unless you are aware of some major movement of white women all of a sudden wanting 3 babies, then Britain is for sure lost.
The brits are done brother. Families cannot start any longer, housing is way out of reach, and there are too many people, and housing isn’t being built. Migrants because of their “need” jump the line for all housing by law. They are VIP, and they don’t tolerate no for an answer. They will tear up the hotel if they are in there too long. They don’t ask, they DEMAND. And they GET.
gravenimage says
But Muslims will *not* keep the system afloat–they seldom work, and often scam the system. All they supply is voters for the worst parties, children to make sure the schools are open (never mind what they teach), and large numbers of criminals for the prisons.
Even with weak prosecution and absurdly short sentences, Muslims still clog the prisons in ever enlarging numbers–at least until Shari’ah is able to take over entirely in Britain…
Beans🫘 says
Gravenimage
Yea of course they are garbage! But the elites and the people running these nations will not admit it!
Look at the Somalians in Minnesota. Who in their right mind can say these are a benefit to society? Only a stupid elite from Harvard.
We should support sharia law and Islamic nation. Let’s make one over there somewhere and they can all go back to paradise and build it how ever they want.
Wellington says
Better to be lost by demographic dearth than by demographic conquest. Surely you can see at least this much.
Rod says
Hey bean head.
No importing millions Muslims drained the system it didn’t put anything into it. This makes it fall faster bean head.
So what do you think. These grooming gangs, the imams , six babies second secret wife. drug dealers and pimps are paying into the “system”.
You are a fool. They are there to take all they can. Just look at Somalia in Minneapolis you clown. They thrive off people like you.
gravenimage says
True, Beans, Wellington, and Rod.
Eddie says
That Muslims vote on sectarian/ family lines is no surprise. That they use the democratic process against liberal societies is expected.
What is more interesting to me however is the response of Farage.
Openly courting thr Muslim bloc vote himself before the election – but when it all goes wrong and the Reform candidate is humiliated Farage gets very angry and full of recriminations.
.
This man is looking more unbalanced and irrational day by day.
Hopefully this will help convince those who write Jihadwatch articles that Reform is NOT a right wing party nor is it anti mass immigration.
All Farage wants to do is get votes and he doesn’t care how he gets them or where they come from.
He got slapped down on this occasion.
Good.
James Lincoln says
Eddie,
From my US viewpoint, I used to like Farage.
Used to.
Now I think that he is a fake, a phony, and a fraud.
gravenimage says
Sadly same here, James. And waffling anti-Jihadists cannot be helping the cause.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I believe that a bulk of Brits are rightfully very cynical about all their mainstream political parties. Including Reform
But if they sit out every election for that reason, they’ll unwittingly cede power to the muslims, and then the latter will legislatively and legally islamify Britain. To prevent that, 2 things need to happen:
⮞ Anti-islamic personalities and parties, such as Restore Britain, Britain First, UKIP, Reclaim as well as high profile personalities like Douglas Murray, Tommy Robinson, Connor Tomlinson, Anne-Marie Waters, Dan Wootton,…. should combine forces to form a coalition, and seek out candidates nationwide, in every constituency, county, district…. so that there is a viable English/Scottish/Welsh/Ulster candidate to offer a choice to the Infidels there
⮞ Voters should then rally behind these candidates in whatever election there is – general, by-elections, city councillor, whatever. Do everything to prevent more muslims from getting elected
That would be a minimum needed first step, before the islamization of UK can be reversed
James Lincoln says
+10
gravenimage says
Grim but spot on analysis, Infidel.
CHEVELLE says
Michigan. Once they get going , you really can not stop it. It’s like a snowball down hill. They will keep increasing and pull the votes away, and run their Islamic candidates bigger and bigger office.
They know how to get to the money money money. Ain’t no money like free government money!
Good news: Dearborn is nowhere near as bad as Paris or London. So America does have something innate that helps. What that is idk. But it’s real
gravenimage says
All we have is fewer Muslims overall. There is no ‘magic’ beyond this.
CHEVELLE says
Dearborn Michigan is a majority Islamic city. Fact is, you won’t be murdered with a machete or raped there like those Pakistani areas in UK and North Africans in Paris.
About 20 years ago, there was a chain of shish kabob restaurants, millions of dollars were being made and shipped to hezbolla in Lebanon. We used to go there to eat and we were not even aware. It is nowhere on the news. FBI was involved , the owner was locked up and the stores suddenly CHANGED NAMES.
People were furious. We have to ask, how many of these other smaller single businesses are shipping money to these groups overseas? Probably many in secret.
This is why I think it’s quieter in America here. There is too much money to steal, and too much money to send home. It benefits them to keep eyes off them. So they get power in office and pass out the grants, syphon money for back home.
What do you think, am I being weird and delusional?
gravenimage says
CHEVELLE, over half of the population of Dearborn is Middle Eastern. This used to be majority Arab Christian, but likely no longer. Even if Dearborn was majority Muslim, though–and it is not clear that this is the case–it is not *surrounded* by places that have large numbers of Muslims.
About 1.1% of the population of the US is Muslim–still *far too high*, but nothing like the situation in the UK, where Muslims make up 6.5% of the population, or Germany, about 6.7%, or Sweden, 5% to 10%, or France, where it is between 7% and 10%.
Yes, I believe that these numbers *do* make a difference.
Yes. the US is wealthy–but so is Western Europe, and Muslims sponge off and scam Infidels in both places–and in the rest of the West.
Then, your idea that Jihad violence does not exist in the US is inaccurate. Just look back through the Jihad Watch archives to see that this is mistaken.
jerry glenn says
UK surges in the European Islamopandering derby.
gravenimage says
Britain’s Islamic Bloc Vote Warning. America, Take Note.
…………………………………………………..
Chilling–and yes, it *can* happen here. Look at Dearborn and Hamtramck.
Wellington says
And let’s not forget NYC, gravenimage. Mamdani is now that city’s mayor because of a combination of Leftists, far too many apathetic people who didn’t bother to vote AND a Muslim population that is far more in that city than when 9/11 occurred.
You are correct. It can happen here. It already is.
gravenimage says
Quite right, Wellington–I should have mentioned NYC. Mamdani is pretending to be a “progressive” socialist. Crazy enough to vote for this stupidity, but I think few Infidels understand that Mamdani is a brutal Jihad-supporting anti-Semite.