Iranian negotiators have made clear to the Trump administration that while Iran is willing to discuss possible limits to its nuclear programs, it will not discuss the other items that the Americans demand be considered, including ending Iran’s ballistic missile discussion, its support for proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, and its murderous response to the millions of protesters who recently turned out in cities across Iran to shout “Death to the Dictator.”
Meanwhile, Israel watches in dismay as the Americans seem willing to continue negotiating with Tehran, even after it has said it will only negotiate on the nuclear issue. More on that Israeli alarm, and the possible unilateral action by Israel to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile threat, can be found here: “Israel warns Trump: We may act alone if Iran crosses ballistic missile red line,” by Avi Ashkenazi, Jerusalem Post, February 8, 2026:
Israeli defense officials recently told their US counterparts that Iran’s ballistic missile program represents an existential threat, and that Jerusalem is prepared to act unilaterally if necessary.
According to security sources, Israeli intentions to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities and production infrastructure were conveyed in recent weeks through a series of high-level exchanges. Military officials outlined operational concepts to degrade the program, including strikes on key manufacturing sites.
In early February, both the head of the IDF, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, and the new Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General. Omer Tishler, visited Washington D.C. to meet with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine, to discuss operational plans regarding Iran.
“We told the Americans we will strike alone if Iran crosses the red line we set on ballistic missiles,” the source said, adding that Israel is not yet at that threshold but is continuously tracking developments inside Iran.
The officials stressed that Israel reserves freedom of action and emphasized that it will not allow Iran to restore strategic weapon systems on a scale that threatens Israel’s existence.
One defense official described the current moment as a “historic opportunity” to deliver a significant blow to Iran’s missile infrastructure and neutralize active threats to Israel and neighboring states.
During recent talks, Israel also presented plans to target additional facilities connected to the missile program, according to the official.
It is not just Iran’s remaining store of ballistic missiles that the Israelis plan to target, but also the plants, spread across Iran, where they are being manufactured.
The worry in Israel is that Trump will be satisfied with hitting just a few targets — say, some Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders and their military bases — without engaging in the kind of sustained bombing campaign that would put paid to the ballistic missile program, which is Israel’s chief worry at this time. Trump will then take a victory lap, claim “total victory,” as he did last June when he declared, much too optimistically, that the one-day bombing by American planes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and “set it back for many years,” but some ballistic missiles may remain intact in tunnel hideouts, and some of the plants that manufacture those missiles might also escape destruction. This would be an unacceptable result for Israel, which would find itself compelled to finish the job by itself.
With both the Prime Minister and the Israeli Air Force Commander arriving in Washington, just a few weeks after Zamir had been in discussions with Caine, it is likely that a failure by Iran to respond favorably to America’s three demands will lead to a “kinetic” response. But what will be on the target list? The IRGC commanders? The command-and-control centers of both the IRGC and the Iranian army? The supreme leader, whose death will so hearten the protesters that millions more will appear in the streets of cities across Iran? How long will it take the Americans to harden their bases around the region, the very bases that Iran has threatened it will strike in response to any American attack? And will such an attack include both American and Israeli forces, or will the Americans want the Israelis to hold back?
In Iran, what’s to come still unsure, but as Shakespeare famously counseled, “in delay there lies no plenty.”
So we are left anent Iran the Famous Five Questions for study and discussion: Quis? Quid? Quibus auxiliis? Cur? Quomodo? Quando?
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Like I said yesterday, Israel should act alone to topple this regime – nothing less – once the talks end. There is nothing to gain by respecting Trump’s fantasies
Taffy says
Israel is in a bad position, stymied and kept in the dark, with the U.S. Navy sailing the Gulf of Oman and waiting and waiting for the Order from Trump to attack. At 11 a.m. EST, Netanyahu and Trump will meet, and they hopefully will solidify a unified MILITARY approach to a take-down of the Iranian regime. I doubt that Israel’s military will be part of the plan, except to provide intelligence on targets and the Ayatollah’s whereabouts that only Israel possesses. There are about a dozen US citizens in Iranian jails. I don’t know if that enters the equation, but it should not. Israel’s best strategy at this juncture is to get on the bus and leave the driving to the U.S. Only if it becomes apparent that the US will not act militarily, should Israel unilaterally try to take out the Ayatollah and the regime. Israel really needs heavy bombers to optimally go at this alone, which it does not have. Israel’s fighter aircraft can definitely accomplish precision bombing, but it is a long range mission and they cannot drop the tons of ordnance on target that the US can. This is a situation just like the Gulf War. Saddam was shooting Scud missiles into Israel, but the US would not allow Israel to join the fray for political reasons. The U.S. was afraid that they would lose Saudi and other Arab support, if Israel were allowed to attack Iraq.
With the above said, I believe that the US will act to take out the regime, but something is causing a hitch in the mission, possibly a fundamental disagreement between the Navy and the AF on strategy, or the need for another carrier group that is not yet there. Trump’s desire to make a diplomatic deal appears to be a cover to buy an additional two weeks or so to ready our military for an attack plan that has changed.
We will know Trump’s intentions by the end of the week, and we’ll most likely find out shortly after the Mullahs know that they are being attacked by the United States. In the improbable event that the US stupidly makes a diplomatic deal with Iran, Israel will have to complete the job.
Westman says
Whatever is done, Khamenei must be removed or it has little significance to freeing the Iranian people. He sits on the throne as a proxy “authority” of Allah in the minds of those who support him. His removal would demonstrate that Allah is not indebted to him nor cares.
This is what worries the Saudis who wish Khamenei gone yet are concerned it will weaken their claim of Allah’s right to rule, leading to instability.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I think it goes beyond that. They all know that the more non-islamic a country is, the more attractive it is for a variety of economic activity – from foreign investments to tourism. Right now, the Emirates looks like a good tax haven for Western entities, but once Iran is liberated –
⮞ Its oil will once again be available on the world market, and they’ll be able to resurrect their economy
⮞ It will be a more attractive investment hub for people wary of investing in islamic countries, knowing what they know. Just like Lebanon used to be in the 1950s and 1960s
⮞ It will be an even more attractive tourist hub for people interested in pre-islamic Persian history, and willing to visit their equivalents of the Parthenon
Also, if one wants to know how muslim countries will react to a muslim country becoming non-muslim, just look at Israel in 1948. Just like they hate that fact to this day, they’ll hate Iran even more. Which is why I don’t want Iran’s defensive capabilities to be eliminated: I’d much prefer that only the regime get overthrown
Westman says
Sounds good IFF it can ever be a safe place for tourists.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Westman
Once islam becomes a dwindling minority, I think it’s safe to assume that it will be. Certainly safer than any of the countries around it, which I concede is not saying much
Wellington says
What is Trump waiting for?
Westman says
Maybe some agreement to hold off until the Olympics finish? Russia held off the invasion of Georgia until after the Olympics in 2008, so there is a precedence. If there is a similar agreement, the invasion of Iran wouldn’t happen until after Feb 22. Just a guess…
David Lakatos says
No nukes for these puke murdering Muhammadian jihad terrorist.