Some senior advisors to President Donald Trump are hoping to persuade Israel to strike Iran first, in order that Iran will retaliate against both the Jewish state and the U.S., and that attack on American assets will then justify an American counter-attack. More on this comes from Politico: “White House officials believe ‘the politics are a lot better’ if Israel strikes Iran first,” by Dasha Burns and Nahal Toosi, Politico, February 25, 2026:
Senior advisers to President Donald Trump would prefer Israel strike Iran before the United States launches an assault on the country, according to two people familiar with ongoing discussions.
These Trump administration officials are privately arguing that an Israeli attack would trigger Iran to retaliate, helping muster support from American voters for a U.S. strike.
The calculus is a political one — that more Americans would stomach a war with Iran if the United States or an ally were attacked first. Recent polling shows that Americans, and Republicans in particular, support regime change in Iran, but are unwilling to risk any U.S. casualties to achieve it. That means Trump’s team is considering the optics of how an attack is conducted in addition to other justifications — such as Iran’s nuclear program.
“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” said one of the people familiar with discussions. Both individuals were granted anonymity to describe private conversations….
“If we’re talking about a regime-change scale attack, Iran is very likely to retaliate with everything they’ve got. We have a lot of assets in the region and every one of those is a potential target,” said the first person familiar with discussions. “And they’re not under the Iron Dome. So there’s a high likelihood of American casualties. And that comes with lots of political risk.”
What is wrong here? Israel is to be sent out, alone, to attack Iran first, and then the calculation is that Iran will attack American assets in the region, thereby justifying an American response. But what if it doesn’t work out that way? The Iranians might well limit their response to ballistic missiles launched on Israeli targets, as “our response to the Jewish state’s aggression. We were attacked by the Zionists and are responding in kind. But we will not attack American assets unless the Americans attack us. It’s up to them.” Iran will present itself as the innocent party that was attacked first by the Jewish state, and much of the world, alas, will accept that version of events. Israel would in this scenario be enduring casualties, but also major damage to infrastructure, all because the Americans wanted “Israel to go first and alone,” in order to trigger a response from Iran that would involve an attack on both Israel and on American assets in the region. And those attacks, in turn, would be used to justify an American attack on Iran.
Israel must not be exploited in such a manner. It will be happy to participate in a joint attack on Iran with the U.S., as it did in June 2025 with the 12-Day War, but it is the Americans, with the “massive armada” they have assembled, consisting of two aircraft carriers, several destroyers, and dozens of other ships, and more than one hundred of our most advanced planes — F-15s, F-22s, and F-35s — who should take the lead. Don’t make Israel go first, and alone.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
On another channel – either Iran International or Tousi TV, I saw it mentioned that most Iranians are rooting to be invaded by Israel, rather than the US. Main reason being Israel’s low percentage of civilian casualties in Gaza. Another better reason IMO would be Israel actually knowing the country better, compared to Americans, who tend to project our aspirations on other people who are nothing like us
In this case, I think Mossad should try to cause as much sabotage as possible of the IRGC and Basij, and provoke an Iranian aggressive attack on Israel, which could then trigger both an Israeli as well as an American response. While I don’t disagree w/ Hugh that Israel shouldn’t be made to go it alone, I daresay that even if they do, I think they could topple the islamic regime, given the daily demonstrations now of students. But if there are any more crackdowns on Iranian protestors – young or old, that alone should be a casus belli for US to (finally) attack Iran
Taffy says
The U.S. delivering the first strike is a MAJOR strategic advantage. We can deliver about a ten times more massive strike than Israel can. Using Israeli intelligence, we will be able to hit Iranian missile launchers and missile stockpiles simultaneously with other Iranian assets and preempt an all out Iranian response. Israel, on the other hand, will deliver a non-devastating blow, which will allow Iran to launch many more missiles at carriers, Israel, US bases, before the U.S. joins the fray.
Bexarkat says
This would not be an intelligent approach. It would simply give elements of credence to Israel-bashers, antisemites, and Islamists who claim Israel is a war-mongering nation state who needs America’s support to avoid counterstrikes by a common foe. Others would claim that Trump is just carrying out the wishes of his “Zionist puppet masters.”
If the decision to attack Iran goes forward, then the IDF should be there in support of American forces. The world must know this is an American operation supported strongly by her allies – actively such as Israel and passively such as Iraq and Jordan.
OLD GUY says
I think it should be a joint effort, with America taking out all the missile and nuclear sites and providing air coverage, and Israel providing the logistics for those strikes as well as boots on the ground to clear out the Hamas fighters and their leaders that survive the Americans strike.
ploome says
meanwhile:
The State Department is letting non-essential personnel and the family members of diplomats at the US Embassy in Israel leave the country as fears grow that war with Iran is imminent.
In an email to staff at the Jerusalem mission Friday morning, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee warned that those wishing to depart the Jewish state “should do so TODAY.”
ploome says
and now
” Multiple flights from Istanbul Airport to Tehran were cancelled on Friday, with Turkish Airlines and Iranian carriers suspending scheduled services as security concerns tied to Iran’s ongoing crisis continue to disrupt air travel between Türkiye and its eastern neighbor.”
gravenimage says
https://jihadwatch.org/2026/02/uk-green-party-campaign-video-is-entirely-in-urdu#comment-2659774
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I don’t like the idea of the US wanting Israel to do all of the hard stuff–if that is what is going on here.