Exposing the role that Islamic jihad theology and ideology play in the modern global conflicts

On Iran, Trump Has Overpromised and Underperformed

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President Donald Trump made a promise to support the Iranian protesters, and then did nothing as more than 36,500 of them were murdered by the regime. Now he has three possibilities: to continue to do nothing, to launch a brief attack on Iran to show that he had “done as promised,” or to launch a massive attack that could possibly lead to regime change, but also risks a furious response by the Iranian rulers, on American bases and allies in the region, including Israel, as they would no longer feel they had anything more to lose.

More on the current state of play between Washington and Tehran can be found here: “Trump has backed himself into a corner,” Andrew Fox, February 2, 2026:

Iran’s massive protests presented the greatest challenge to the Islamic Republic in decades. Donald Trump publicly encouraged Iranians to rise up, declaring on social media: “Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! … help is on its way.” Many protesters took these words seriously. For the first time in their lives, a US president had promised support, giving them hope that Washington would intervene if the regime used force.

Tragically, that help never materialised.

As the regime launched a brutal crackdown, shutting off the internet while gunning down crowds, demonstrators waited in vain for American aid. The result was a bloodbath: thousands of Iranians were slaughtered in the streets, with some estimates as high as 30,000+ killed in just a few weeks. The protest movement was drowned in blood, and the revolutionary moment seems to have passed, for now, leaving Iran’s cities eerily quiet under the heavy hand of security forces.

For Iranians who believed Trump’s assurances, the sense of betrayal runs deep. “Siavash hoped until the very end that Trump’s help would arrive,” recounted one Iranian about his cousin, shot dead during the demonstrations. Trump’s vow that “help is on the way” sounded hollow as the regime continued its killing spree. By mid-January, even as the White House claimed unconfirmed reports that Tehran had halted planned executions, the death toll from the crackdown only increased. Trump had drawn a red line only to see it repeatedly crossed without decisive US action.

The situation recalls Barack Obama’s infamous “red line” fiasco in Syria. Obama faced widespread criticism for failing to act after Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons in 2013, but Trump’s delay in Iran’s case risks making Obama’s mistake seem like a masterclass in diplomacy by comparison. The US president’s credibility among Iranians has been seriously damaged: “The people of Iran placed their trust in his words… If he fails to act…, that trust will be broken and the people of Iran will not forget who stood with them, and who turned away.”…

Trump has backed himself into a corner where every option is bad. Do nothing substantial, and he will be remembered by Iran’s freedom-seeking people as the US president who promised hope but left them to be massacred – a betrayal that will echo for generations. Strike Iran in a token show of force, and he will claim to have acted, while likely failing to end the ayatollahs’ rule or even their nuclear ambitions: a hollow, performative act to save face. Go all-in for regime change by military force, and he risks a massive regional war with no guarantee of success, which is a gamble far more dangerous than anything his predecessors attempted.

I differ with Andrew Fox here. If the Americans finally launch an all-out attack, bringing to bear the firepower that their two carrier strike groups, with nearly 200 planes, provide, how easy will it be for Iran, with its senior leadership, including the supreme leader and the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, presumably killed in the first hours of the American strike, to respond? Those threats Iran has made to attack American bases and allies throughout the region will be hard to make good on. And if Israel is attacked, the Jewish state’s response will be, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, far more devastating than what Israel did to Iran in the 12-Day War last June.

I allow myself to believe that the “massive armada” Trump has assembled is not meant merely to intimidate Iran into agreeing to Trump’s demands that Tehran halt its restarted nuclear program and turn over the 400 kg. of uranium that Iran has enriched to a level of 60%, just below weapons-grade, to give up its ballistic missiles, and to end support for its proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. I think that now that the American armada is in place, and anti-missile defenses at American bases in the region are being hardened, that by the end of February, our planes and drones will be launched to do far more than destroy ballistic missiles and remaining nuclear facilities; the American attack will aim to decapitate Iran’s senior leadership, leading inexorably to regime change.

Comments

  1. While most of us have become accustomed to his manner, it’s been deadly to protestors. He was wrong to speak so quickly and casually. That alone, however, isn’t enough to cause me to want risk American lives and involvement in another ME quagmire.

    • I don’t see why American lives have to be in danger. In an initial wave, destroy all of Iran’s anti-aircraft missile launchers, and then, bomb IRGC/Basij bases throughout the country. Then withdraw and just let Iranians do their own thing. Heck, this was successfully (albeit wrongly) done in Libya in 2011, to remove Gadaffi. It could be done in Iran, and then Pahlavi could take over

      However, given how he has betrayed the Kurds, Druze and the Israelis, I expect nothing better from him. I now regret that he won the GOP primaries 2 years ago against DeSantis and Ramaswamy. The only saving grace is that he can’t run in 2028, regardless of the trolling some of his supporters like to do w/ Trump 2028 shirts

      Also, while they may not be saying it aloud, one thing that the Kurds, Druze and now Iranians must have learned: the US is not a trustworthy ally, and should not be depended upon in any circumstances

      • +1
        It’s probably now time while this regime is at its weakest.
        Our weakness will let that regime rearm and attack again, just like Hamas.

      • I’m inclined, Infidel, to think your assessment of Trump is too harsh but I must concede that you may very well not be mistaken in your assessment. I’m sure you’ll understand why I want Trump to be better rather than lesser re Iran presently.

        And here’s the crux of it all: If Trump is not good enough, who is? Yes, who in the West is? And why I still conclude that even though noble people like Reagan, Thatcher, Pope Benedict XVI and, yes, Trump, have fought against the forces of idiocy and malevolence unleashed in the West since the 1960s, none have still proven good enough. Are there such people on the horizon? I see none at present. Do you?

        • Wellington

          I normally would be as charitable as you are about Trump, knowing his tendency to exaggerate and hype his capabilities, achievements and intentions. In this case, however, his bloviating has resulted in the deaths of 36,000 innocent Iranians. This is not something where he sends the Dow or Nasdaq or S&P down hundreds of points, which can recover later: it’s 36,000 or more people dead who need not have been and who can’t be resurrected. People berate Obama and Biden, but one thing they didn’t do: give Iranians a false hope that if they revolted, Uncle Sam will help them do what he (wrongly) did in Libya. Even if he does a volte-face and suddenly topples the Iranian regime, he’ll still have all that blood on his hands

          The absence of an informed leader (about islam) does not excuse the things that Trump is doing, which is worse given that he knows, or at least seemed to know better during Trump 45. At that time, if you recall, he warned muslim countries to isolate jihadists and hate preachers, and even (against the objections of the State Department) supported the Saudis, Emiratis and Egyptians against Qatar. This term, Qatar and Turkey seem to be his closest buddies, which is unconscionable. Oh, and then there was him reading Israel the riot act when they looked on the verge of toppling the Iranian regime last year, and who knows how many innocent deaths that has caused?

          If he didn’t want to seem “islamophobic” (although I see no reason for that given what he said in 2015 after the San Bernardino massacre), he could have cozied up to countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Emirates, instead of Qatar and Turkey. Indeed, he’s indulging the worst of the jihadist offenders

          If you are right – and I think you are – that there is no American leader on the horizon who understands islam the way readers and posters of this site do, then what I suggested above to the Druze, Kurds, Israelis and Iranians would seem right – don’t count on the US to be an ally! How can we be, when we don’t comprehend the threat to their lives that they can clearly see far, far better than we seem capable of?

        • Thank you for your reply, Infidel. As usual, you argued your positions well. I find myself at times liking Trump 45 more than Trump 47. And I wonder what JD Vance and Rubio really know about Islam.

        • Wellington, after Trump’s betrayal of the people of Iran, it’s my assessment that he is incapable of viewing himself as having done something horribly ignoble. A man with conscience would be ashamed of what he did when promising help while Iranians were being murdered, and then doing nothing..

      • DeSantis or Ramaswamy would be my choice too, Infidel. In fact I voted for Ramaswamy in our primary.

        • GE

          Same here. This was way after everyone of Trump’s opponents had dropped out, but the primaries were still going on. I didn’t want Nikki Haley to emerge ahead of either Ramaswamy or DeSantis, so on the day of the primaries in Virginia, I went ahead and voted for Ramaswamy

          I do hope that his poll numbers improve in his governor’s race, and that he succeeds Mike DeWine

      • Well, the long US history of bad moves and poor results in the ME (followed by the supposed obligation to take in scores of hostiles) leaves me far less optimistic than you are that anything, even the most limited action, will proceed as originally advertised, or that residents of another country will react as advertised by war hawks. It’s difficult for the US to remain apart from an action once engaged.
        I am an isolationist of long standing. I first came to that as a child when looking around another country, wondering just how US citizens benefited as fully from US support of that country as did those the US propped up. I find it difficult to ignore decades of disastrous interventions, or the great practical needs of US citizens, as this country is crumbling.
        Civil disagreement; nothing more. I understand your pov, but realistically, neither of us is going off to risk our lives.

    • Hoi, “risk American lives”! In 1987, a Russian-led communist army of 27,000 in Angola, travelled about 1,000 miles from Luanda to south-east Angola intending to crush the pro-Western UNITA group. South Africa. sent in 3,000 soldiers to help UNITA. Those 3,000 soldiers smashed that communist army, killing between 4,800 and 6,000, wiped out the entire 47th armoured car brigade, destroyed 94 Russian tanks and captured a few. They also captured the Soviets most advanced surface to air missile system. 73 South Africans were killed.

      That is what you do for people who need help. You don’t tell them: “Help is coming”, don’t turn up and betray them after at least 36,500 have died. This is what Trump did after asking Muslim Qatar and Turkey for permission to strike Iran. So pardon me if my initial faith in Trump’s presidency went down the toilet. Israel now knows it cannot trust Trump. His negotiations with Iran using Witkoff who is as useless as the hind tit on a bull, is a horrible waste of time. Jusat watch him leave the vile mullahs in power – just what Qatar, Turkey and Saudi-Arabia want. He climbed into bed with oil-rich Muslim dogs and now has their flees.

      • I agree Trump was wrong, very wrong.
        But.
        “you do for people who need help”
        No, neither you nor I would actually do anything as it’s not our lives at risk. It’s a score of young parents or young adults who will be killed before ever even having the opportunity to become parents. The US will add to its deficit as its home territory crumbles and will be told it must accept even more muslims.
        Trump made the error, yes, a serious one, but that cannot be erased by sacrificing more American youth.

  2. It is deuce difficult not to conclude that Trump has indeed backed himself into a corner. I suppose there is still time for him to redeem himself but that prospect is looking very bleak right now. And merely a brief attack on Iran is basically as worthless as doing nothing.

    Only if this regime falls can Trump be redeemed in this matter. For several reasons I hope this happens but then hope is not a winning strategy. As Emily Dickinson wrote of hope, it is very much “a subtle glutton.”

    • Wellington says,

      “Only if this regime falls can Trump be redeemed in this matter.”

      Precisely!

      • And presently, James, it doesn’t look like this regime is going to fall. I fear Trump goofed here—big time. I would dearly welcome being wrong about this.

        • Wellington, it’s evident that Trump is being influenced by his disgusting Muslim buddies in Qatar, Turkey, Saudi-Arabia, Egypt and elsewhere.

          He told the the people of Iran, “Help is coming”, encouraged then to go out and protest, to take over institutions, to “take names” – a truly stupid suggestion – and then betrayed them.

          From Davos, Marco Rubio told us “Trump delivers”. What does he “deliver”. Manure? I need some for the tomato plants in my my back yard.
          .

    • Wellington

      As I mentioned above, the needless death of thousands of innocent Iranians is what would keep Trump from being redeemed, in my eyes. We all know he bloviates and hypes his own leadership, but he’s been POTUS before: all this is no longer new to him the way it was in 2017. If he wasn’t ready to instantly take action, say the way he did against Assad in Syria in 2017, then he should not have said anything. But he did, and the Iranian populace read something into that, and the result was thousands of them being massacred

  3. Sadly in Iran there is a Persian expression: “Gul-e Amrika’i” meaning “American promise” – meaning, a promise given but never honored.

  5. Trump should not get us (US) involved in a major confrontation in the middle east; every time this happens refugee muslims end up in America. Fuck this and fuck them, let the middle east burn to the ground on their own accord. Not to mention that we have a communist war going on in our American streets that require priority attention.

    • @Antonio

      You make a very good point.

      I long ago got very tired of US leaders who speak loudly and crry no stick.

    • Yes. I’m not enthusiastic about exchanging the lives of solid American citizen fathers of children (many of whom are still young enough to be at home) for another influx of muslims, and that’s been the one constant to these operations.

  6. As this jihad watch article revealed Donald Trump publicly encouraged Iranians to rise up, declaring on social media: ‘Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! … help is on its way.’ ” ir further informed the reader that those iranians “who believed Trump’s assurances, the sense of betrayal runs deep.”

    No wonder they feel like that . Sadly , Trump, so far ,has not following through by puting his words into action , he has severely tarnished his credibly. Only by immediate direct military action of strong might to aid the iranian people to overthrow murderous despotic Islamic regime , can Donald Trump be viewed as US President of genuine action and not just a speaker of empty meaningless words.

  7. President Trump should definitely not delay aiding in the liberation of the Iranian people from the cruel oppressive murderous tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran. Even if it requires using the intervention of a strong force of US military might.

    For President Trump did promise to help the people of Iran in their righteous and just quest to establish a legitimate government installed in place of the horrific tyranny they now surer under.

    Our President should keep his promise and not let the people of Iran down.

    To out this in another way President Trump should not make a liar out of himself by not keeping to help them in their righteous quest to have a real, genuine government .

    For Trump needs to and should and use American might to the Iranians overthrow that horrendous abomination of the “mullah tyranny” for they can then establish legitimate government that respects and safeguards the basic human rights and freedom that all people should have .

    For It’s just too late for any type of “diplomatic settlement’.” The reason why this is so is because the massive human carnage is so horrendous that those murderous despots of Iran must be brought to justice. Likewise, their tyrannical Islamic regime need to be destroyed.

  10. I blame Witkoff and Kushner for Trump’s betrayal of the Israelis, Iranians, Ukrainians, Kurds and Druze. These two guys have too much invested in their relations with Qatar and Saudi Arabia to be able to freely support any action that weakens the Muslim and Marxist jihad against the west and Judeo-Christian civilization. Do Kushner and Witkoff really understand the ideology of Islam?

    • +10

      “Do Kushner and Witkoff really understand the ideology of Islam?”

      These people are businessmen. I don’t think the art of the deal focuses on ideology. Neither does it focus on whether the people want to get back to sanity, kick out Islam, get back to their Persian society before MoMo arrived, nor stop the funding of Hamas and so on.

      “Few men have virtue to withstand the highest bidder.” -George Washington

  11. There is a much wider consideration. Trump has excoriated the term “Nation Building.” He is being very methodical. He has not moved all of the assets needed for the operation. Right now, Israel is attacking what is left of Iran’s nuclear program. Word is that not only is Iran going to be attacked, but the Iranian bases in Iraq. A second carrier battle group is on its way to the Middle East. When the attack happens, it is going to be gigantic. The Persian People have sacrificed for their own country, so when this is all over, it is going to be the people who will establish their government.

  12. The total destruction of islamic countries is the answer. However that would result in disruption of oil and commerce starting WW 3. The non-islamic countries are caught between a rock and a hard place either way. Wouldn’t want Trumps position.

    • Well, at least Iran is proving that a country could be de-islamized. Maybe it’s worth seeing whether that’s possible w/ other people, including Turks and Arabs, before we decide that it’s worth plunging the world into Armageddon

  13. China is the country that will be most adversely affected by this situation. They have effectively been excluded from the Western Hemisphere. They no longer have access to cheap Venezuelan oil, and Panama has expelled China from the ports on either side of the Panama Canal; the ports will be operated by Maersk. With Iran in revolt, one of their last suppliers of under-the-table cut-rate crude. The Communist regime in Cuba is crumbling. With the loss of Venezuelan oil, Cuba’s already struggling power grid is only functioning for a few hours a day, if at all. The Cuban people are revolting. Russia, Cuba’s primary financial supporter, no longer possesses the resources to sustain Cuba. Numerous successful Cuban businessmen and women in South Florida are eagerly anticipating the opportunity to return to Cuba with their wealth and establish new businesses there.

  14. Trump only does what he thinks makes him look best. The man has no standards or morals if you ask me.

    🇺🇸🇳🇮

  15. Are we so sure the Iranian people would welcome a US intervention? In the wake of 9/11, we saw all seven Afghan feminists trotted out to tell us what an evil hellhole their Old Country was. Indeed, they were right, but how well did our Mission Civilizitrice turn out? What of Iraq? That rescue of an oppressed people went south pretty quickly.

    We wanted to “make the world safe for democracry” by intervening in World War I. We ended up making it safe for all kinds of destructive nationalisms across Europe and Asia. We tried the same in World War II (which, indeed, we had to fight), and ended up making the world safe for Stalinism. We bankrupted ourselves shouldering the burden of free world defense in the Cold War, with the Carter presidency’s initial tacit admission (backen Union would carry out a pre-emptive strike against Communist China’s nuclear facilities. It came out again with the Soviets and Chinese holding their proxy war in Cambodia. Nothing could have been better for the world than our standing back and letting the Communist bloc fracture and destroy itself.

    With Islam, it broke into warring Sunni, Shi’ite, and Kharijite factions before Muhammad’s shortly after Muhammad died. The more purely Islamic the realm, the more likelihood that it’s a sinkhole of factions, feuds,and civil war. While the defection of many Iranians from Islam is a welcome development, the Mujaheddin-e-Khalq, which their toxic mix of Marx and Muhammad, is on the ground there. Islam in iself is no realm of peace.

    • There have been surveys of Iranians by GAMAAN on a variety of issues over time, from their religious affiliations 6 years ago to now, where they’re agreed on regime change, but not on what would follow. It’s way different from Afghanistan or Iraq, since people want an end to the islamic republic, and most have left islam. It was 60% in 2020: now it’s estimated to be something like 80%

    • Kepha: I, like you fear that Iran will be yet another case of a rear view far less rosy than the sales pitch.

  16. Am I the only one to notice that the IRANIAN PEOPLE have under-performed? This is a violent revolution to overthrow the government. The way this is done is very simple. Kill an Iranian guard and take his gun. Use the gun to kill more Iranian guards and take THEIR guns, organize underground guerilla forces and use lightning attacks, assassinations etc. to gain traction. A million Iranians marching in the street and shouting “Down with the Dictator” is PATHETIC after awhile. Israel and U.S. did the ‘heavy lifting’ the regime was on the brink of collapse and….. from the Iranian people….NOTHING.

    • It’s not a hopeful sign that they’ll be partners in a revolution nor that they’ll be able to hold a country together in the future. I’m not as optimistic as others regarding US involvement.

    • It’s not a hopeful sign that they’ll be partners in a revolution nor that they’ll be able to hold a country together in the future. I’m not as optimistic as others regarding US involvement.

    • It takes courage of personal sacrifice that most people do not have. I would venture a guess that if the United States were led by a tyrannical government at the level of the Iranian mullahs, or China’s Xi, or Venezuela’s Maduro – most Americans, left without firearms in their possession or the threat of imprisonment or execution of themselves and their family members would also back down. There are those who would rather live on their knees than die or their feet – to paraphrase Emiliano Zapata. It is my fervent hope this never has to be tested in the United States, but with elections of Islamists becoming more frequent, who knows – perhaps in 50 years American patriots will be shot down in the streets or sent to Islamic-style gulags. Islam is very patient.

  17. On Iran, Trump Has Overpromised and Underperformed
    ………………………………………………….

    I wish I didn’t have to agree here…

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