Saeed Ghasseminejad is an adviser on Iran’s economy at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He’s been looking at the country-wide protests in Iran, now in their second week, and has concluded that even if the regime somehow survives this round of protests, as it did those in 2017, 2019, and 2022, it will nevertheless soon crumble into dust. More of his thoughts on his native land can be found here: “Not for Gaza, but for Iran: Protesters reject regime’s global proxy wars – opinion,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad, Jerusalem Post, January 5, 2026:
For a week, the Islamic Republic has tried to tell itself, and the world, that the protests in Iran are merely about the price of the dollar. They are wrong.
As the shutters rolled down in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar in protest, a different sound rose up from the universities and the streets of Isfahan, Mashhad, Qom, Kermanshah, and Hamadan. It was not a cry for subsidies. It was a chant for the death of the Islamic Republic and the return of Pahlavi.
Cautious Western observers are mislabeling the protests rocking Iran today as “economic riots.” While the trigger was indeed the rial’s catastrophic freefall, decimating the life savings of millions overnight, the fuel is something far more combustible: a decade of accumulated revolutionary demand.
The distinction between “economic grievances” and “political demands” in Iran has been dead for a decade now. When protesters in Delijan set fire to the statue of Qasem Soleimani on the very anniversary of his death, chanting “This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return,” they are not negotiating for lower bread prices.
They are burning the regime’s most sacred icons and rejecting its right to exist.
This uprising marks a critical evolution from the protests of 2017, 2019, and 2022. Today, the merchant and the student are marching in lockstep, joined by Iranians from diverse backgrounds across 100 cities and towns so far.
The universities, historically the bastions of anti-monarchist Marxism, are now echoing with chants of “Down with the three corrupts! Mullah, leftist, Mujahid.”…
The university students protesting now are not anti-monarchists, as they were in 1978. They are now shouting for the crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, to return and rule as head of state. Nor are they Marxists: it’s not Russia or China that has won their allegiance, but the capitalist West, headed by the Great Satan itself.
Pezeshkian’s attempt to stem the tide by sacking Central Bank Governor Farzin and recycling the previously impeached Abdolnasser Hemmati is a desperate reshuffling of deck chairs on a sinking ship….
A change at the head of the Central Bank will not prevent the rial from sinking still further, nor change the percentage of Iranians who have fallen below the poverty line, nor the number of university graduates who cannot find jobs. And even if the economy were magically to improve, the popular fury on the streets is no longer about economic conditions, but is aimed at ending the regime itself. The Iranians are sick of the theocracy; they want secularism; they want freedom.
The Iranians know that billions of dollars have been spent arming, and financing, Iran’s proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen. They aren’t interested in the Islamic Republic’s dream of creating a Shi’ite crescent around Israel; they aren’t interested in destroying the Jewish state. They want Iran’s money to be spent not on terror groups far away, but at home, and only to improve the well-being of the long-suffering Iranian people.
The stakes have now transcended Iran’s borders. By murdering demonstrators and hunting down dissidents, Khamenei is directly testing the red lines established by President Trump, who explicitly warned the regime about killing protesters. The White House has stated it is “locked and loaded.”
That statement alone has caused the regime to use batons rather than bullets on protesters; the Iranian leaders know now, after the American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, and even more spectacularly, after the seizure of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, that Trump means what he says.
The protests continue in Iran, with ever-swelling numbers, chanting “No to Gaza.” “No to Lebanon.” “Death to the dictator!” “Reza, Reza Pahlavi!”
Wellington says
If the toppling of this evil regime does not come with a major introspection by the Iranian people en masse about how much Islam contributed to the nightmare that has plagued Iran since 1979 then I fear that any success in getting rid of this odious regime will largely be superficial and ephemeral.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
As per that Gamaan survey some 6 years ago now, 60% of Iranians have already done that, and left islam. They’ve taken a variety of paths – None (for religion), Agnosticism, Atheism, Zoroastrianism and Christianity being their top choices. Only 40% of that country is now muslim of any sect – shi’a, sunni, sufi and Bahai. Note that these are 2020 numbers, so the actual number of muslims may be way lower
Yesterday, I was watching a video by Armin Navabi, an Iranian ex-muslim who hosts a YouTube channel Atheist Republic: he had interviewed Robert months before. He was talking to Seth Dillon of the Babylon Bee, and he told him that the most “islamophobic” people of the world right now are the people of Iran. Given some reports I saw of some islamic buildings being attacked in some cities, he’s probably right
Wellington says
Encouraging. Indeed. Thanks for that, Infidel.
On a side note, even though I am an agnostic it has been my conviction for a long time now that society as a whole needs an enlightened religion that puts forth solid ethical norms irrespective of any possible theological truths involved. As Voltaire opined, a fellow skeptic like myself, if God doesn’t exist we’ll have to invent Him. Of course Islam would be the exception to this rule of Voltaire’s. Better no religion than Islam, still problematic though this be.
Taffy says
That’s correct! The existence of God is but one aspect of most religions. The Judeo-Christian religions have a set of fundamental ethical values, based on natural law, at their core. Hinduism takes a different path, but ends up in the same place. Islam, on the other hand, teaches jihad and the killing of infidels for Allah as the highest level of worship. All religious except Islam are live and let live philosophies. Christianity may actively seek conversion of non-Christians, but nowadays it is not done forcibly.
gravenimage says
+1
SKA says
The word for republic in Persian, Jomhur, now carries the foul after-taste of autocratic theocratic rule thanks to 46 years of misrule by the clerics. Even if the monarchy is restored (as a constitutional monarchy) the nation will probably demand some sort of guarantee of separation of church and state if not also a guarantee of religious freedom and toleration.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
There is actually a huge number of Iranians who’d like islam to be banned altogether. While I don’t see that happening if Reza Pahlavi returns, I do hope that most islamic practices – both shi’a and sunni – get to be regulated by the government so that muslims can no longer do what they did for centuries. Also, they should do what they can to resurrect artifacts of pre-islamic history, and level a number of those mosques and shrines – particularly those associated w/ the regime, if not the original 12 imams. For instance, Khomenei’s mausoleum outside Tehran
Wellington says
And now this:
https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/01/07/watch-as-iranians-rename-tehran-street-for-trump-amid-protests-n2197864
Worth the read. Damn, thank God Trump is President of the most powerful nation on Earth and not Cackling Kamala. A given.
Walter Sieruk says
One of the reasons that that “Islamic Republic of Iran is at the end of the line.” Meaning its losing steam and is quickly going into “the dustbin of history” is because it is based on nothing but a foundation of lies.
,To put this in another way, that Islamic tyranny of Iran is based in the foundation of false and empty promises. As well as lying words of Ayatollah Khomeini After the fiendish Muslim clerics obtained total power in Iran they showed their true colors by having their Islamic state police who are called the “Revolutionary Guards truest the people on Iran in many heinously brutal and ruthless ways. As, for example, their brutal, callous misogyny against both girls and women. This thesis statement is explained, in some detail, by the following.
, That tyrannical Islamic regime in Iran that so falsely and inappropriately has the word “republic” in its title. It should be made known that this called the “Iranian Revolution” turned out to be a hoax. Ayatollah Khomeini before achieving power in Iran in his lying and deceptions presented himself to the Iranian people as if he was someone who would be in power would give freedom to the people of Iran with any tyranny. The reality turned out to be just the opposite.
As explained by a former Muslim as well as a man who took part in this Islamic “revolution “ ,who is now a Christian informs the reader of his book that “Prior to the Revolution no one ever imagined that other political parties would be suppressed under the rule of Ayatollah Khomeini. He had promised that all groups would have freedom to run their own campaigns after the Revolution. He even stated that governing system would be based on the decision of the people via a referendum. He never spoke of a system that would be governed by Islam. He even made clear that mullahs would not take part in any political activities, and that they would only be allowed to teach spirituality… Immediately after the Revolution, mullahs rushed into government offices to occupy the most important political l positions, making it difficult for the interim secular government to function … The mullah’s occupation of position was exactly the opposite to what the Ayatollah Khomeini had promised before the Revolution.”. [1]
In other words, the insincere, disingenuous and outright lying Ayatollah Khomeini made many bogus promise he really had no intention of keeping. His lying deception worked, for he achieved great power in Iran.
Furthermore, of the many heinously evils outcomes of that Islamic “revolution” is the extremely cruel, brutal and demonic misogyny of this hideous Islamic regime. Not only against women but even young girls.
As explained by a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard member who defected to the West and how now lives in America his book also informs the reader about the malicious and murderous affront girls in Iran’s Evin prison which reads that those in power ,the “paraded teenage girls in front in front of me as they led them to their deaths. These girls were barely out of their childhood, barely old enough to think of themselves, much less form thoughts against the state. They knew nothing about the machinations of politics. They were innocent in every sense of the word and certainty innocent of trumped –up charges that led to their imprisonment. Yet they suffered fates too brutal for even the most vicious criminal. ..Their few remaining moments of life had been filled with the level of abuse that few can imagine”
The author further states “They tortured and killed young girls, in God’s name and before their execution they raped them because they believed that if a girl dies virgin, she will go to heaven, and they wanted to deny them this reward.” [2]
This is as malice -filled cruel brutal oppressive malicious and murderous Islamic regime of Iran, since it took power in Iran it thrives on installing fear on the Iranian people.
First, the Bible reads, “All the days of the oppressed are wretched.” Proverbs 15:15. [N.I.V.]
Second, Benjamin Franklin had printed a very true statement in his periodical Poor Richard’s Almanac which may apply to that horrendous tyrannical regime of Iran. It’s “Those who are feared are also hated.”
One important this to understand that since that brutal .cruel oppressive and murderous Islamic regime of Iran was built on a bedrock of lies as well as false and empty and unkempt promises its footing is based on a foundation of sand, therefore the collapse of that hostile horrific and horrendous Islamic tyranny of Iran would be inevitable.
[1] ISLAM THE HOUSE I LEFT BEHIND by Daniel Shayesteh . Pages 90, 91
[2] A TIME TO BETRAY by Reza Kahlili. Pages 2,3. 117.
Huh?!? says
+1
Walter Sieruk says
First, the Iranian people are very justified, right and righteous to chant repeatedly “Death to the Islamic Republic “ It’s not even a real “ Republic” in the very essence of that word.
That Islamic tyrannical regime of Iran is and always was since its very beginning a horrendous violator of human rights, especially females, both girls and women, even the most basic human rights of the Iranian people. Since those tyrants in power in Iran care nothing ,at all , for the humans rights as in lives and safety of the people of Iran , how much less do they care ,if even possible, about the lives and safely of the people of other countries.
Second , but not less important is the facts that the entire foundation of this whole Islamic “Republic “of Iran is based on a mayor falsehood.
Which is that “holy book” of Islam the Qur ‘an, as in 47;4. Some call this religious book, the Qur ‘an. All this leads to a very important question: “Is the Quran the Word of God or is it a fabrication of a man. Thus, is the Quran the truth or a fiction and a hoax ?”
The jihadists use many verses from the Qur ‘an as the main source of justification for their violence, mayhem and murders. As found in For example, 4:89. 5:33. 9:5,111,123. The answer is clearly given on pages 145 through 157 in THE ISLAMIC INVASION by Robert Morey in which he wrote a section on the Qur ‘an with its self-contradictions. Just two of the many he cited are the following “The Qur’ an differs on whether a day is a thousand years or fifty thousand years in God’s sight’ and “Who was first to believe? Abraham or Moses [Sura 6:14 versus 7:143]? The above is inconsistent and illogical.
Further, Morey wrote about “The fact that Judaism and Christianity broke up into different sects was used in the Qur ‘an to prove that they are not of God [Suras 30:20-32. 42:13, 14]. Yet Islam has broken up into many warring sects and therefore cannot be true if the Quran is right.” Moreover, Morey in his book shows many more contradictions and absurdities in the Quran, there are and how Muhammad incorporated extra Biblical and Jewish folklore along with pre-Islamic Arabian myth and parts of Zoroastrian and Hindu stories into the Quran.
Furthermore, the Muslims claim that “the Quran is the direct, literal word of God unmodified in any way by the Prophet who uttered them at the bidding of God.”
In addition in the book UNVEILING ISLAM by Ergun Mehmet and Eethi Caner has shown that the Qur ‘ an was modified in the following account on pages 45. “Muhammad felt the need to improve on the words of Allah, since he changed Allah’s wisdom for his own on several occasions. A hadith tells of the nonchalant emendations of Muhammad:’ On a number of occasions he [a scribe] had, with the Prophet’s consent changed the closing words of verses. For example, when the prophet had said ‘God is mighty and wise ‘ Adbollah b. Abi Sarh suggested writing down ‘Knowing and wise’ and the Prophet answered that there was no objection. Having observed a succession of changes of this type, Adbollah renounced Islam on the grounds that revelations, if from God could not be changed at the prompting of a scribe such as himself. After his apostasy he went to Mecca and joined the Qorayshites.’
Other writers reveal that later Muhammad and his people did go war with the Qorayshites and he personally killed Abdollah. Obviously Abdollah knew too much and Muhammad wanted Abdollah’s knowledge to die with him.”
In conclusion, the Quran is not only a fiction, it’s also a hoax , therefore that Islamic regime of Iran is built on a foundation of the sand of lies.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I was watching a video by Armin Navabi yesterday, where he told Seth Dillon that right now, the best litmus test of how authentic an opposition is is their attitude towards Israel and the US. On this, he pointed out that the only the Pahlavis pass that litmus test, being supportive of normalizing relations w/ both. All the other opposition parties, be it Leftists or the Mujahideen Khalq, have the same views on Israel as the Palestinian authority does, and so not much would change were they to come to power
About the economy, when it’s a million+ rials to the dollar, one can’t grasp the magnitude of it until one compares the rial not to major currencies like dollars or Euros, but rather, currencies that have to be carried in wheelbarrows, like that of Zimbabwe or Uzbekistan. I did a lookup, and both those currencies are higher than the rial. Iran would have to just ask the US and Israel to help them do a total transformation of the economy once a new regime takes over: I don’t see what they pull off on their own
Also, on the demonstrations, a major threshold has been crossed. Previously, demonstrators would only shout “Death to the dictator”, maybe to leave some ambiguity about who it is they wanted out – be it the President, Speaker or other government officials. Yesterday, for the first time, seeing the demonstrations in Anbadan, they were shouting “Death to Khamenei” very explicitly, leaving no doubt that that fear is gone
There are also more reports of more Iranian security forces switching sides in some cities, and swearing allegiance to Reza Pahlavi. I do think this regime will fall sooner rather than later
James Lincoln says
According to the feature article:
“The Iranians know that billions of dollars have been spent arming, and financing, Iran’s proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen…They want Iran’s money to be spent not on terror groups far away, but at home, and only to improve the well-being of the long-suffering Iranian people.”
Yes.
The average Iranian wants freedom, safety, prosperity – and lots of clean water.
The average Iranian…
Adrian Fegan says
Iran’s far right bandwagon
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Iran’s only “Right” is Pahlavi, and the pro-monarchists. Then there are the Leftists, as well as the Mujahideen Khalq, which is also hated there, and of course, there are the jihadis of the islamic republic – the IRGC/Basij
Adrian Fegan says
Iran’s far right bandwagon
Huh?!? says
All excellent posts here> I will continue to pray to my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ to give the real Iranians strength and wisdom in this difficult time for them. Depose the Imams.
gravenimage says
The Islamic Republic of Iran at the End of the Line
……………………………………………
God, I hope so…