The evolving Saudi-UAE strain potentially affects global energy markets, not to mention regional politics.
The central issue of why the UAE backs the Southern Yemeni separatists: Yemen’s more than a decade-old civil war involves Iran-backed Houthi rebels controlling most of the north and a Saudi-led coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemen government in the south. The United Arab Emirates supports the Separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which calls for South Yemen to secede again from Yemen. In fact, right after Christmas, Yemeni separatists accused Saudi Arabia outright of launching airstrikes against them. The only reply from Saudi Arabia came from the Saudi-owned, London-based newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, which quoted “informed sources” who admitted “that the kingdom carried out the strikes ‘to send a message’ to the Council.”
Part of the UAE’s support of the STC is its mutual opposition to the Islah Party (the Yemeni Congregation for Reform), which is a Saudi supported, Muslim Brotherhood-aligned movement. Recall that months before October 7, Saudi Arabia decided to release more Hamas-linked prisoners after meeting with a Hamas senior delegation. Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot.
Although the UAE said it had pulled out all its forces from Southern Yemen over the weekend, Saudi Arabia is now publicly accusing the UAE of undermining its national security.
Any further escalation between the two countries could have a severe negative impact upon global energy markets. Both countries are “among the world’s largest oil exporters and are positioned near two of the most critical maritime chokepoints in global trade – the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab – through which a significant share of the world’s seaborne oil flows and much of the shipping bound to and from the Suez Canal passes.”
“More Saudi airstrikes hit separatist positions in Yemeni port city,” by Ahmed Al-Haj and Fatma Khaled, Associated Press, January 4, 2026:
ADEN, Yemen — Southern separatists in Yemen said Saudi warplanes carried out new airstrikes Saturday on a military camp in the port city of Mukalla and other areas where their forces are stationed, as Saudi-backed forces moved to retake the city.
There was no immediate Saudi comment. It was the latest direct intervention by Saudi Arabia, which in recent weeks has bombed the separatist Southern Transitional Council, or STC, and struck what is said was a shipment of Emirati weapons destined for it.
The Saudi strikes hit Barshid Brigade camp west of Mukalla in Hadramout, one of two governorates seized last month by the STC, according to the group’s AIC satellite news channel.
Yemen has been engulfed in civil war for more than a decade, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels controlling much of the north and a Saudi-led coalition supporting the internationally recognized government in the south. But coalition member the United Arab Emirates also supports the separatists, who call for South Yemen to secede again from Yemen.
The latest Saudi strikes came a day after the separatist movement announced a constitution for an independent nation in the south.
Last month, the STC moved into Hadramout and Mahra and seized an oil-rich region. That pushed out allies of the Saudi-supported National Shield forces, a group in the anti-Houthi coalition.
After Saudi pressure and an ultimatum from anti-Houthi forces to withdraw from Yemen, the UAE said early Saturday it had pulled out all its forces.
The tensions in Yemen have further strained ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE…
Hugh Fitzgerald says
This is one of those pull-up-a-chair-to-watch situations, and hope that this particular conflict between the UAE and Saudi Arabia goes on forever, using up men, money, and especially, weaponry on both sides..
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I’d think that instead of cozying up to a rogue regime like Qatar and trying to rehabilitate them w/ their Gulf neighbors, I’d rather resolve this rift b/w the Emirates and the Saudis, since they had been on the same side against Qatar, Iran and Turkey
What exactly is either side – the Saudis or the Emiratis – doing that’s enhancing either dawa or jihad activity? Both had ended support for it in 2017, unlike Qatar. I’d rather see both of them become hostile to Qatar
Also, in Yemen, which side is the least pro-jihad? Is it the Emirati-backed STC, or the Saudi-backed regime in Aden? Also, in Sudan, where the Emirates has picked a side in their civil war, which side are they supporting?
Taffy says
This is one of those messed up situations without a solution that would be attractive to both sides. Pop up a huge bowl of popcorn and sit on the sidelines and see what happens.
As much as I like the politics of the UAE in establishing ties including tourism with Israel, in my view the Saudis have the most say here because they border Yemen and the UAE does not. In fact, Saudi Arabia’s inhospitable desert with no roads is between the UAE and Yemen, and Oman is between the UAE and Yemen on a more circuitous route, albeit with roads. If I were negotiating this, I would appeal to the UAE to get out of the Yemen conflict. Also, I would appeal to the Saudis to align their Yemeni forces with the STC until the Houthis are defeated, and then worry about which group will rule.
I think that @Infidel has the right idea, where the UAE and the Saudis need to have a uniform and united stand against Qatar, Hamas, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Every other disagreement can be stayed until these other entities are defeated.
Taffy says
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN8MguFDI5_hxkWuF98nolX0UWTFjKsBOhvQBi1Jak0Ot0QRvd6bivUBW3Z1V-X8KtJZGDJwP39YwlY12M5q7AHJJBuCEjybTlr7GrLDdQAu0f_7r5oqIrxk0hVZHo6nKKccg487taA4QLSmF9g0MtI6aicul8JxuaVUNlvVnPKzHVEm1epqIiue9R8LLn/w400-h223/interested-viewing.gif
Wellington says
Muslims versus other Muslims. Better than Muslims versus non-Muslims.
Yes, there exists gradations here respecting what is optimal for the non-Muslim sphere of mankind but, in general, Muslims going after other Muslims is far preferable to Muslims going after non-Muslims.
The curse of Islam to all mankind (and especially to the West) continues. Yes it does.