With Trump’s unconscionable refusal to launch an air attack on the Iranian regime — there need be no use of boots on the ground, no fear of repeating the costly errors of those wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — he has demoralized the protesters, who believed him when he said that “help is on the way.” Now, unless this mercurial man has another sudden change of mind, the regime that appeared to be on the brink of toppling a few days ago will survive to torment the people who turned out, so indomitably, and in such great numbers, to call for “death to the dictator.”
Had the Iranian regime fallen, it would have been the most momentous and glorious event in the Middle East since Israel’s victory in the Six-Day War.
Just before Trump made the announcement that “the killing has stopped” in Iran, Jonathan Spyer published a piece on why only an external force — America — can change the Iranian regime. More of his argument can be found here: “All the Mullahs Have Left Is War on Their Own People,” by Jonathan Spyer, The Australian, January 13, 2026:
The latest reports emerging from Iran suggest that the Islamic regime is now launched on a path of drowning the growing uprising against it in a sea of its own blood. The rulers of Iran have evidently understood the stakes. Well versed in the grammar and logic of revolutions, they understand that events in Iran have reached a critical juncture. From its point of view, the regime has grasped that turning back would mean its own destruction. It is therefore moving forward to crush its domestic enemies.
The details of this are emerging, despite the static imposed by the regime’s near total shutdown of the internet since January 8.
The opposition-linked Iran International media network, which has extensive sources within the country, is now citing as a ‘conservative estimate’ the figure of 2000 people slaughtered by the regime in its crackdown over the past days….
The latest figures, which Iranians in the West compiled from their contacts inside Iran, is that the regime has murdered at least 12,000 people. Some suggest that as many as 20,000 protesters may have been killed in almost 200 cities across Iran.
What all this means is that with the forces balanced as they currently appear to be, this could run on for quite a while. Contrary to some reports in international media, this regime will almost certainly not simply make provision for hoarding its stolen wealth and then flee. Its DNA remains that of a revolutionary Islamist regime.
The variable which could tip things in favor of the protestors would be external intervention, whether of the immediate, kinetic kind, or through efforts to keep the opposition in the game through the provision of assistance – weapons, medical supplies, means of communication, money. A combination of both short and long term intervention and assistance would be the most judicious path. Absent this, the Islamic regime in Iran could limp on for a while, to the extreme detriment of Iran’s people, and the wider Middle East region.
There is now no sign that the Trump administration will attack the Iranian regime’s leaders, or the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the army, despite his weeks of threatening rhetoric. Trump seems to have decided that the regime really has stopped its attacks on protesters, and he seems mightily impressed that the regime, for obvious reasons of self-preservation, has decided not to execute Erfan Soltani, who had been sentenced to die on January 14. He has only imposed sanctions on a dozen Iranian officials accused of repressing the demonstrators. The regime is breathing easier. The protests have thinned out. Trump has turned a possible victory — the overthrow of the regime — into a defeat, leaving the regime in place and the protesters demoralized.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I’m not sure I agree. In other words, I don’t see this regime remaining in power: sooner or later, it’s likely to collapse. What US intervention would change would be the price tag – in terms of number of lives – that it would take to bring about this revolution. I know I’m not a military analyst, but I don’t agree w/ the strategy to take a week to send navy ships to the Gulf. Rather, use the military assets that we already have there in Qatar, Bahrein, Emirates and Iraq to selectively bomb those IRGC depots and targets in places where the massacres are the worst, so that the Iranians are less demoralized in their resistance. Overrule them if they object – in fact, threaten to withdraw the US security umbrella over their countries completely
I was watching Reza Pahlavi’s press conference this morning, and he said that it’s never too late to support the revolutionaries, no matter when US decides to join. I somewhat disagree: we shouldn’t have to wait for, say 50,000 people to be massacred before we start bombing assets of the regime
James Lincoln says
࿗Infidel࿘ says,
“…I don’t agree w/ the strategy to take a week to send navy ships to the Gulf. Rather, use the military assets that we already have there in Qatar, Bahrein, Emirates and Iraq…”
Precisely.
The carrier battle group can do cleanup later.
Tony Porcaro says
I think Israel has prompted a change in Trump’s readiness to take action and that a possible alternative plan is in the works involving Israeli forces; either way the Iranian leadership will self-destruct as it cannot continue to strangle the life out of its own people.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
That’s another Leftist conspiracy theory, and doesn’t even begin to make sense. If anything, Israel has been at the forefront of supporting and advocating regime change in Iran, and have been very explicit about their support to Reza Pahlavi. In fact, at the end of the 12 day war, had it not been for Trump’s bluster, Israel was on its way to taking down the Iranian regime
Even if you are loathe to criticize Trump, don’t explain that away w/ conspiracy theories that are down and out asinine, and don’t even begin to make sense
Transmaster says
Trump will intervene. Right now he is evacuating unnessary personals form area bases. plus the Abraham Lincoln battle group is moving to the Persian Gulf.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
While I don’t pretend to be a military expert, I don’t see why some targeted air strikes on IRGC bases, particularly in cities where the massacres have been their worst, shouldn’t do the job. They’d be more expedient, saving more Iranian lives, and they’d be less expensive, since no battle groups need to temporarily move to that region. Particularly when the US now has a policy of focusing more on the Americas as well as the Asia-Pacific region
Also, the Iranian air force was decimated by Israel last year, and still does not exist. Their currency has collapsed to ZERO, and therefore, they’re unable to pay for any military toys. Their shipments to China can be easily intercepted, and Russia has no use for their oil. I agree that the Pentagon needs to be cautious, but I do think they are exaggerating the magnitude of the Iranian threat, which is nowhere near what it was 2 years ago, when they tried raining missiles on Israel, and when Israel bombed them and destroyed their entire air defenses
If the administration didn’t like the odds of taking down the Iranian regime, President Trump shouldn’t have said anything about the Iranian crackdown on the protesters. In fact, I now find myself disagreeing w/ some Iranian commentators, who are praising Trump over Obama or Biden on this. Say what you will, but at least, neither Obama nor Biden sent the Iranians any false signals that they would back them in their revolts, so whatever the Iranians then did, they did on their own. But Trump has done that, and is now leaving them languishing. The only other leader he resembles in that aspect is President Bush 41, who during Operation Desert Storm compared Saddam to Hitler, leaving the shi’a and Kurds w/ the impression that regime change was on the cards. That didn’t happen, and massacres of both groups followed
Stive says
If trump does not help Iran to be free under Pahlavi transition then I’m confident that trump made a deal and sold his soul to the devil. Recently trump did say he won’t make the kingdom so he will just do good.
With vatican controlled Jew hater Vance with his friends around trump is worrisome. Trump can only prove he hasn’t sold out to Satan by helping Iran.
Keys says
I don’t see how the regime can be eradicated without troops on the ground.
Certainly, the IRGC and basij are not massed in their barracks, but purposely scattered so as not to be mass annihilated. That causes a situation a bit like the one Israel faced in Gaza. To get them out means tremendous infrastructure damage followed by troops for “cleanup”. That means causalities.
Since their mosques are used to hide and store munitions, not to mention the source of Iran’s captivity, and they think their mosques are untouchable, how about mass destruction of those mosques, especially the major ones where ayatollahs and imams have heavy influence? That would hasten the demise of the regime, but there would be a berserko world-wide response – but also a message to those who would do us harm. I think Israel attacked mosques when they were used to attack their military. Do the cons outweigh the pros? Too bad, if they do.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The troops on the ground are the Iranian demonstrators. They have the numbers to overwhelm the regime in all 31 provinces. What they need is the elimination of the weaponry advantage their oppressors have. Targeted bombing of arms depots in some of the places where the massacres are the worst should do the job: either there will be accelerated defections, or at least, the massacres will stop b’cos regime entities in other places will be too afraid to respond
Just this much is enough, and the rest can be left to the Iranian people, as well as the Pahlavi transition team
gravenimage says
Only an External Force — America — Can at This Point Bring Down the Iranian Regime
………………………………………………………..
I hope the Mullahs fall–but without outside help I don’t know if they will.
somehistory says
I’ve read the prophecies of Ezekiel. The result of all of the evil coming out of iran has been foretold. There can be no other outcome.
JDow says
I observe a demand for trump to do something beyond words. OK, I challenge you to declare WHAT he should do in detail. Then describe, convincingly, in detail what happens next.
Regardless of Trump doing something or not, if the regime goes down, what replaces it? And why does it replace the regime? Additionally, how effective will it be and how long will it last?
Ask the main question, “And then what happens?” Ask it repeatedly with slight variations in conditions. Then figure out how to bring the “best” result to fruition. Babbling about “Trump should (or should not) do something is a waste of pixels.
{^_^}
OLD GUY says
Iran or any other muslim/islamic countries internal affairs are not Americas problem or any one else. We do not need to do business or allow visas or migration of their citizens and could deport all Iranian visitors.
If Iran on another country invades another nation, yes we could help defend against them. But their internal political problems are theirs.