The Economic Consequences of a Mayor Mamdani

On Tuesday, Zohran Mamdani will likely be elected mayor of New York. His antisemitism, his deep hatred of the Jewish state, his “activism” that began with his forming the first Students for Justice in Palestine outpost at Bowdoin College, his refusal to condemn the annihilationist slogan “Globalize the Intifada” — all of that is morally intolerable. Israelis, Jews, and many others offended by Mamdani’s hostility to Israel may choose to invest elsewhere, live elsewhere, contribute to the economy of other places just beyond the city’s borders, if they feel the mayor is hostile to them. But there are also the grave economic consequences of his views. And the well-off whom Mamdani intends to tax much more heavily to pay for his freebies — the buses, the universal child care, the not-for-profit food stores — will also move outside the city.

More on the economic effect of a Mayor Mamdani can be found here: “Mamdani’s economics, Israel stance could incur a $5b. expense on New York – analysis,” by Alex Winston, Jerusalem Post, November 2, 2025:

Israel is the seventh-largest source of imports for New York State, sending goods worth around $5.1 billion in 2024, according to a report released by Stacker.com, using data from the Census Bureau. The leading Israeli imports are precious stones and metals (about $4.1 billion), electrical machinery and equipment ($175 million), and optical and medical instruments ($148 m.).

Much of that trade flows through New York City, which is the state’s commercial and financial center. Israeli exports sustain jobs across sectors from jewelry and manufacturing to technology and healthcare. The connection between Tel Aviv and New York runs through trading floors, start-ups, and research partnerships, a network built on decades of commercial and cultural cooperation.

The upcoming mayoral election for New York City, scheduled for Tuesday, is not just about foreign affairs. A mayoral candidate’s stance toward Israel can affect local economics, investor confidence, and the city’s reputation as a global hub.

Zohran Mamdani, who is running for the Democratic nomination and leading the polls, has long made opposition to Israel a core part of his political identity. As The Jerusalem Post’s Michael Starr reported last week, “Mamdani says co-founding the Bowdoin College Students for Justice in Palestine chapter and anti-Israel BDS activism were the ‘crux of the reason’ he joined the Democratic Socialists of America.”

Mamdani’s repeated claims that Israel is committing “genocide,” his calls to “arrest” Israel’s elected leaders, and his association with the BDS movement have transformed this race into a serious question for the city’s Jewish demographic. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed 60% of New York’s Jewish voters now support former governor Andrew Cuomo in the race, following Mayor Eric Adams’s withdrawal, while only 16% back Mamdani.

Yet concerns over Mamdani’s likely election are about more than moral or ideological debates. There are financial ones too.

His financial attitude has left many feeling unimpressed. The financial sector and Wall Street have expressed concerns about Mamdani’s proposed agenda, which includes increasing taxes on the city’s highest earners, elevating corporate tax rates, halting rent increases for rent-stabilized units, and expanding affordable housing programs funded by public dollars.

What happens when high earners in New York are taxed at a much higher rate? Some of them will move out of the city, to Scarsdale, to Mamaroneck, to Oyster Bay, to Tuxedo Park, to Westport. The city’s tax base will shrink. The more it shrinks, the higher the tax that will be put on those residents who remained, leading still more of them to exit. Owners and executives of companies may move their companies out of the city, too, and the corporate taxes collected by the city will decrease.

Who will pay for the free bus service Mamdani says he will put into operation? Mamdani says that program will cost less than $700 million a year. The MTA chairman, John Liebler, insists that the annual cost will be far greater — close to $1 billion a year. Unlike Mamdani, Liebler does not pull his figures out of a hat.

What will happen if Mamdani’s “rent stabilization” plan goes into effect, which would end all rent increases for rent-stabilized apartments? How many would-be investors in existing rental housing, or those who had been planning to build new rental housing, will change their minds if Mamdani’s proposal were to become law? Who will spend money keeping up rental housing if it does not provide a suitable return on investment?

Mamdani’s plan to provide universal child care for those aged between six weeks and five years is estimated to cost more than $6 billion. And Mamdani, though the self-appointed scourge of the “billionaire class,” wants to make the program available to all children, no matter how rich their parents may be. An estimate of the cost of running the city-owned grocery stores that Mamdani promises to build all over New York has not yet been given, but it must run into hundreds of millions of dollars.

New York will end up being a much poorer city, with its richest taxpayers leaving, business owners and executives moving their companies out of New York to save on corporate taxes, and investments in the city’s housing stock decreasing.

Will Mamdani be able to come up with another $7-8 billion every year to pay for his free and universal child care, his free buses, his city-owned food stores? He can raise taxes on the rich, but if he does, many of those rich city-dwellers will then leave New York City. And the more Mamdani raises those taxes, the more the city’s tax base will shrivel. Just like morality, economics is not his strong suit.