The twenty Israeli hostages will by now have been released by Hamas (but not the bodies of the 28 hostages Hamas murdered) , and the 1750 Palestinian prisoners, including 195 who were serving life sentences for multiple murders, have simultaneously been freed by Israel. Now comes Phase 2 of the Trump Plan, which looks almost impossible to fulfill, given Hamas’ intransigence. This phase of the plan requires Hamas to disarm completely, otherwise Israel will not proceed with further troop withdrawals. More on the unbridgeable gap between Israel and Hamas on Phase 2 are discussed here: “The Ghost of Gaza: How Hamas Survived,” by Gregg Roman, Middle East Forum, October 10, 2025:
…President Trump’s 20-point plan announced September 29 represents ambitious diplomacy addressing multiple dimensions simultaneously—hostage release, humanitarian relief, governance transition, regional security cooperation, and long-term economic development. The document’s sophistication is apparent; its implementability is not. The plan mandates that Hamas cannot have any role—direct, indirect, or in any form—in Gaza’s future governance while simultaneously requiring Hamas to release hostages, coordinate withdrawals, and accept technocratic replacement. This circular logic assumes Hamas will facilitate its own dissolution.
Israel’s cabinet, facing unprecedented pressure from President Donald Trump and internal political crisis, approved a framework that represents everything warned against in previous strategic analyses: negotiating with terrorists from a position of incomplete victory.
Consider the disarmament provisions. Trump’s framework demands complete demilitarization, with all military infrastructure destroyed under international supervision and weapons placed permanently beyond use. Hamas’s October 3 response accepted hostage release and governance transition, but made no mention of disarmament. Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk stated explicitly: “We will hand over [our] weapons to the future Palestinian state, and whoever governs Gaza will have weapons in his hand.” When challenged that Israel had already destroyed most Hamas capabilities, Abu Marzouk responded: “If they destroyed 90% of Hamas’s military capabilities and killed most of Qassam’s fighters, as President Trump says, whose weapons are you going to disarm?”
This rhetorical question exposes the agreement’s central contradiction. If Hamas has been militarily defeated to the extent claimed, then disarmament becomes either redundant or impossible—redundant if capabilities no longer exist, impossible if weapons are buried under rubble or distributed among decentralized cells. If Hamas retains significant military capability, then it possesses leverage to resist disarmament and will use the ceasefire period to reconstitute. Either way, the disarmament provision exists on paper without enforcement mechanisms beyond resumed military operations, which would merely return both parties to the pre-ceasefire status quo.
The governance transition presents similar problems. Hamas was asked to step aside for a “technocratic Palestinian committee of qualified Palestinians and international experts” overseen by a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump and including former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair. Hamas immediately rejected this structure. Abu Marzouk declared: “We will never accept anyone who is not Palestinian to control the Palestinians,” specifically objecting to Blair given his role in the 2003 Iraq War. The Palestinian Authority, supposedly positioned to assume control pending reforms, remains weak, corrupt, and deeply unpopular. President Abbas, 89 years old and serving the twentieth year of his four-year term, called Hamas members “sons of dogs” while lacking capacity to govern the territory they control.
How likely is it that Hamas would ever agree to be replaced as the ruler in Gaza by the Palestinian Authority, its mortal enemy? And how could the PA, so “weak, corrupt, and deeply unpopular,” ever hope to take command in Gaza?
The sequencing of Israeli withdrawal amplifies these contradictions. Netanyahu emphasized repeatedly in his October 5 interview that “Israel makes a tactical withdrawal, stays in Gaza.” Yet Hamas head Khalil al-Hayya demands complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip with “real guarantees” that the war ends permanently. The Trump plan states withdrawal will be “based on agreed standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization”—language that resolves nothing since demilitarization itself remains disputed. Israel will not fully withdraw until Hamas disarms; Hamas will not disarm until Israel fully withdraws. This is not a negotiable difference but an existential contradiction that no amount of diplomatic language can resolve.
Since Hamas now says it will refuse to disarm, the IDF will not pull back further in Gaza, much less withdraw from the Strip altogether. How does Trump, so self-congratulatory over the success of Phase 1, by far the easiest part of his plan to fulfill, hope to bridge that gap?
Alan Gold says
But the hostages will be back. IDF will have a respite. And Israel will be able to ignore foreign useful idiots. A round two would be fast and complete. Some Palestinians might even be able to support Israel. Israel has shown an ability to evacuate large segments.
Transmaster says
What is now starting to happen is that a much weaker HAMAS is having to deal with the Gazan clans, who have the tacit support of Israel. These families have a score to settle with HAMAS.
Hugh Fitzgerald says
Yes, you are quite right to point this out. The fighting in Gaza won’t stop. But it will be a half-dozen of the strongest families — clans– who are well-armed, and enraged with how Hamas has treated them, who will be fighting a demoralized Hamas. It will be a pleasure to watch.
mgoldberg says
Are they any less Jew hating than Hamas, or Fatah? I imagine they’ll lay low to consolidate power but the key provision of Islamic control is always utter disdain for Kafir, for Jews, for Israel. Do the clans have any future without this hatred?
Alphonse Caprice says
Surely, m, you’re right, I’ve already said plenty of times that hamas will return as ‘ humus’ after a while, but hey, by all means let them blow each other (the clans) to smithereens, right? Because, hey, that’s a double whammy Benji (and us).
By the way, this news that on/for October 7, 2023, explicit orders were given to kill civilians is totally in line with what has been said on this site about surah 2: 191, reading: kill them wherever you find them. It is of the utmost importance to rub this command into the left wing useful idiots who chose, what expressly in view of this order, must emphatically and explicitly be called the wrong side of history.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
💯
Wellington says
Sound point, Transmaster, and indicative of a major verity, to wit, when Muslims are not busy killing non-Muslims they spend a good bit of their time killing each other.
Islam is a sickness—and for many reasons. One knows this by now or should know it.
rubiconcrest says
I hope Hamas will not agree to total disarmament, so that Israel can finish them off. But of course there are many more where they came from.
The bigger problem is policing ‘Palestinians’. How is that possible given their culture and Islam.
Tim gallagher says
Islam and peace is the very definition of a complete impossibly despite so many fools telling us that islam is basically peaceful
Cynthia says
The only policing that works is brutal Islamic repression. That’s what keeps the population in line in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. There will never be anything but jihadist Palestinians and jihadist states surrounding Israel waiting to be strong enough for their next attack.
Qatar and Turkey are Muslim Brotherhood. Good luck with their de radicalizing Gaza!
Captain Quirk says
@Cynthia: never say never. The developments concerning whether or not mohamed actually existed, whether or not Mecca existed in 632 AD (the year mohamed is supposed to have died) and concerning the autehticity of the koran as the one never changing and never changed book are so devastating for mohamedanism, that there emphatically is great hope. We need to go out there asking (mainly) prove mohamed existed, because until you can, the working thesis is he did not; prove Mecca existed in 632 AD, because if it didn’t a huge part of the stories about mohamed can not have taken place. Same thing for the koran. And if they can’t prove these things, we must conclude that all of mohamedanism is based on falsehoods, on lies. At some point this must destabilize the mohamedans.
Captain Quirk says
That should be authenticity, of course, sorry for the typo.
By the way, the best way forward for the program I outlined above, is to do so in Arabic, Turkish and Farsi. The message must be accessible and easy to read.
James Lincoln says
According to the feature article:
“Phase 2 of the Trump Plan… requires hamas to disarm completely.
They will not.
It is not in their DNA.
somehistory says
James, hamas is already working to eliminate their rival groups in Gaza….and they are patrolling the streets with their weapons.
James Lincoln says
somehistory,
Thanks for the update – it does not surprise.
Walter Sieruk says
The prisoner exchange is to lopsided and also to dangerous .Isreal receiving the few serving Israelis who the Muslim terrorists had kidnapped and not yet murmured for thousands of menacing malicious Hamas Muslims terrorists is an action by the Israeli government of desperation and folly.
Desperation in that Israel does need to have those peaceful surviving Israeli’s captives freed. Very understandably so.
Folly it is to release so many , unrepentant Muslim terrorists to further engage in future murderous and destructive jihad attacks,
bill says
Al qaeda and ISIS continue to create havoc wherever they can, although they were supposedly ‘defeated’
I fully expect Hamas to do the same. Any peace organisation which includes Balir will surely be ineffective as was his previous job of peace envoy in the ME. Af!ter what he did to UK he should be in forced retirement
OLD GUY says
All the talk in the world will NOT stop the hate for Israel coming from Islam. As long as Islam exist Israel will have to defend its self. The further Islam spreads across the globe the more the rest of us will have to defend ourselves against Islamic Jihad also. There is NO peace with Islam.
Joseph Askew says
The naive West will believe peace is possible, President Trump knows Hamas will start harassing and fighting again soon. Israel can then target Hamas including those released that they had to feed and care for in jail, in the meantime clan civil war will hopefully rise, the only solution is to evacuate all Arabs out of Israel. Go Israel, Jesus is your Messiah.