British analyst Andrew Fox considers what Israel, in accepting Trump’s 20-point plan, has gained and lost, here: “Waiting on Hamas with bated breath,” Andrew Fox, September 30, 2025:
After nearly two exhausting years of conflict, Israel has agreed to a US-mediated Gaza ceasefire deal that, if Hamas accepts, guarantees the two things Israelis desire most: the return of all hostages and the assurance that Hamas will no longer pose a threat to Israel’s security. These outcomes were celebrated this week as historic by Trump and Netanyahu.
However, the timing and form of the deal are heavily influenced by international pressure and Israeli domestic politics: Trump needs this war done, and Bibi needs an off-ramp. Any agreement with Hamas will likely collapse Israel’s governing coalition. The far-right will withdraw from government, an election will be held, and so Netanyahu needs to have his victory ducks in a row. This deal is the perfect opportunity and timing to represent himself to Israel’s electorate as the man who defeated Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, all of which he can quite reasonably claim.
Internationally, Washington took the lead even as the UN General Assembly turned into an extended global diplomatic rebuke: a series of Western leaders defied the US and Israel by formally supporting Palestinian statehood, prompting the White House to act swiftly before Israel’s diplomatic isolation moved from the inconvenient to the catastrophic. The resulting agreement, announced with optimism at the White House, was essentially shaped by the US, which presented a 20-point plan and told both Netanyahu and Hamas: take it or leave it. The Trump administration also encouraged Egypt, Qatar, and other Arab states behind closed doors, making it clear that now was the moment to bring both Hamas and Israel to heel. In short, this ceasefire’s timing was less about the combatants’ own realisations and more about a superpower’s impatience and global outrage.
On paper, the deal’s provisions read like each side’s wish list, both Palestinian and Israeli. Hamas are supposed to disarm and relinquish control of Gaza (the deal might equally specify that pigs must fly), while Israel will halt its offensive and gradually withdraw troops. An immediate exchange of all remaining hostages for over a thousand Palestinian prisoners will take place, followed by a phased Israeli pullout and the installation of a foreign-led transitional government in Gaza. It then lays out gestures towards a future path to Palestinian self-rule – a bitter pill for some in Israel, including Netanyahu himself.
The United States likely outlined these terms to Arab leaders on the sidelines of UNGA in New York and secured significant agreement, effectively boxing in both combatant parties. Washington’s urgency was evident: after so much bloodshed and a diplomatic setback, America wants this deal as much as anyone, if only to demonstrate that US influence in the Middle East remains decisive. The ceasefire, coming after President Trump’s direct engagement, seems less like a mutual agreement between Israel and Hamas and more like an arm-twisting intervention by a world that had seen enough.
Hamas has played its weak hand cynically. Two years ago, Hamas’s surprise October 2023 onslaught made it Enemy #1; since then, relentless Israeli bombardment and raids have crippled its military capabilities. In truth, Hamas has not posed a serious threat to Israel in about 18 months – pinned down in Gaza, its rocket fire largely silenced. So why seek peace now, when Hamas is already so battered?
One reason is Israel’s need to rehabilitate its global image. Hamas’s horrific initial attack earned it worldwide condemnation, but as the war dragged on and Gaza’s suffering increased, the group saw an opportunity to reshape the story. Hamas leaders openly admitted their strategy was to win the battle for international public opinion by baiting Israel into causing substantial civilian damage as a result of Hamas’s human sacrifice strategy. Tragically, it worked: images of devastated neighbourhoods and desperate hospitals in Gaza caused outrage against Israel and sympathy for Palestinians. Hamas will see enormous wins in Israel’s shocking global isolation, and the deal’s pathway to the Palestinian state, which Netanyahu and others have long denied….
While we all wait to hear from Hamas, some supporters will hope, as Fox quotes from Abba Eban, that “the Arabs” — in this case Hamas — “never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity” by turning down a deal that would have saved them from the IDF completely annihilating them. If Hamas refuses the deal, Trump has announced his full support for Netanyahu to “finish the job” by killing the thousands of Hamas fighters still in Gaza City. If it does accept the deal, it will have agreed to dismantle what remains of it as a fighting force, with individual combatants turning in their weapons in order to obtain an amnesty, and some will also receive safe passage out of Gaza to whatever Arab states are willing to take them in.
PMK says
It’s been said that some Hamas fighters, even after going to another country, will still have the right to return to Gaza. If true, it means they’re not giving up anything.
OLD GUY says
Absolutely Correct!
Billy says
The West’s Leaders continue to expose their weaknesses for failing to learn from European history as Muslims advance their islamization of Non-Muslims using discrimination, segregation, violence, and terrorism as taught in Islam’s Quran(Quran 9:5, 29, 111; 98:6-7, etc.). Islam is deceit.
ISLAM IS ANTICHRIST, AHISTORICAL, FALLACIOUS, DECEITFUL, AND POLITICAL against the USA Constitution and Western Laws to conquer and to subjugate Non-Muslims using a MUSLIM-TERRORIST-CRIMINAL-GANG ENTERPRISE with ISLAMIC LAW(SHARIA) and with CONTINUOUS, TERROR PROPAGANDA from Islam’s Quran to make Islam supreme(Quran 3:28, 54; 7:99; 8:30, 16:106, etc.). Moreover, Islam is a delusional fraud because there is NO MECCA, NO MUHAMMAD, and NO QURAN in the 7th century AD in Saudi Arabia despite the Muslim Standard Islamic Narrative(SIN) claims; the Deceitful House of Islam is founded on propaganda, lies, and deceit where Islam’s 1400-year traditions are based on fallacy and myth including a more than 300-year gap with no documented history. Hence, NEVER give money to Islamic Countries, Islamic Organizations, Mosques, Islamic Schools, etc. because your are funding your ultimate destruction. Islam must be banned as illegal.
Muslims are to be terrorists for Allah. Allah in Qur’an 49:15 teaches, “Surely the believers[Muslims] are only those who believed in Allah and his messenger. They do not doubt, and they performed jihad with their MONEY and their LIVES for the sake of Allah. Those are the truthful.” Again, Islam is a FACTITIOUS IDEOLOGY and CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION despicably fabricated over time into the 21sth century, and there is NO PEACE only genocidal obliteration with Islam and its deceitful Muslims(Quran 8:39: 9:5, 29, 111, etc.). Allah in Quran 4:101 says, “…Surely the infidels[Non-Muslims] were your clear enemies.”
MUSLIM BELIEVERS are a greater TERROR than Allah. Allah in Qur’an 59:13 says, “You[Muslims] are a greater terror in their chests than Allah. This is because they[Jews & Christians] are people who do not understand.”
Islam, its Mosques, its Schools, its Organizations, etc. are Terrorist-Criminal Enterprises with hatred and enmity against all Non-Muslims as totalitarian Islam islamizes the society with impunity(Quran 5:14; 9:5, 29, 111, etc.). As taught from Islam’s Quran, Islam should be banned for its incitement, funding, and promotion of violence, terrorism, hatred, human trafficking, and discrimination against women, children, and Non-Muslims.
Allah stirs hatred against Christians until the resurrection day when Quran 5:14 instructs, “And some of those who say, ‘Surely we are Nasara (Christians),’ we took their covenant. So they have forgotten a part of what they were reminded of, so we have stirred up ENMITY and HATRED among them until the resurrection day. And Allah will inform them of what they were doing.”
MUSLIM BELIEVERS are a greater TERROR than Allah. Allah in Qur’an 59:13 says, “You[Muslims] are a greater terror in their chests than Allah. This is because they[Jews & Christians] are people who do not understand.”
William Kemmler says
>>”After nearly two exhausting years of conflict, Israel has agreed to a US-mediated Gaza ceasefire deal that, if Hamas accepts, guarantees the two things Israelis desire most: the return of all hostages and the assurance that Hamas will no longer pose a threat to Israel’s security.”
Is this a joke? Really, is this a joke? Trump and Netanyahu actually think they can broker a peace with Hamas and their Arab terrorist supporters? It’s got to be a joke, right? it’s the height of foolishness to think that you can negotiate with an organization whose only goal is the destruction of another sovereign country (Israel). But I guess those two are the fools. All this will do is allow Hamas to regroup, rearm, and plan for the next attacks against Israel. The only way to secure peace and security for Israel is to eliminate those that threaten its peace and existence. Nothing less will achieve that goal.
Controse says
Exactly. Hamas smiles only when every single Israeli is dead so Israelis get to smile only when every single Hamas sympathizer is either dead or to far away to kill. Unpleasant truths, when avoided, remain truths.
STJOHNOFGRAFTON says
The deal will be found to have been another false hope. There are too many variables. There needs to be only one solution and no variables for success: Hamas surrenders unconditionally. This won’t happen and the mess will keep on evolving. There will never be lasting peace.
Troybeam says
This 20 point deal will never hold, Hamas will lie and return to fighting. All this does is delay delay delay the fighting that will continue.
memi says
Fittzgerald’s article hits the strategic nail on the head!
“This deal is the perfect opportunity and timing (for Netanyahu) to represent himself to Israel’s electorate as the man who defeated Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, all of which he can quite reasonably claim.”
This is true as no one else could have accomplished this almost ‘impossibilty’. He did it without fail and without fear and protected his country from an existential threat which shall be present as long as Hamas, the Muslim Bros., and Hezbollah are still in ‘operation’!
The only fear is that Qatar is not the sole “leader” but Saudies, UAE and Egypt assume more leadership. Certainly, Egypt’s al-Sisi’s secular government may not be perfect, but god forbid they should go back to 2011–2012 when Turkey’s Muslim Brothehood brought in Islamofascist Morsi and the country was ruined!
Also, Jihadist “Syria” under Beheader al-Jolani is going ahead with its massacres of Druzes, Alawites and Christians and the Caliphate there must be ended–the sooner the better and Amb. to Turkey (I should say “agent of) Tom Barrack should stay away from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza and not promote Erdgoan and Hakan Fidan’s secret service agendas for the islamicization of these countries via their “guests” of Hamas/Hezbolla/Muslim Bros terrorists for whom they remain hosts and likely will destabilizae Gaza and the great efforts to rehabilitate region.