John Spencer, formerly a West Point professor of urban warfare, sums up who won and who lost, in the 12-Day war between Israel and Iran, here: “Who are the real winners and losers of Israel’s 12-day war with Iran? – opinion,” byJohn Spencer, Jerusalem Post, June 25, 2025:
“War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.” — Carl von Clausewitz
War is not chaos. It is the deliberate application of force in pursuit of political objectives. Every modern conflict must be judged according to those objectives. In the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, three major actors pursued distinct goals: Israel, Iran, and the United States.
Based on what can be objectively and openly assessed, Israel and the United States achieved overwhelming success at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Iran, while executing limited retaliation, suffered a decisive defeat. Most importantly, the world is now safer, because Iran is no longer as close to acquiring a nuclear weapon….
Israel’s operation focused not only on infrastructure, but also on people. Over 20 senior Iranian military commanders were killed, including:
Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Gholamali Rashid, head of Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, IRGC Aerospace Commander, Saeed Izadi and Mohammad Shahriari, senior Quds Force officers, and IRGC intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq.
In parallel, at least 14 nuclear scientists were eliminated. These included Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, and physicist Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. Their deaths dealt a devastating blow to Iran’s nuclear weapons capability.
Major nuclear facilities were heavily damaged or degraded:
Natanz suffered destruction of its above-ground pilot enrichment plant and possible damage to underground centrifuges
Isfahan, struck twice, saw nuclear research infrastructure destroyed
Explosions near Fordow suggest the deeply buried site was severely damaged, especially with US support using bunker-busting munitions…
Beyond destroying physical assets, Israel achieved a broader strategic goal: dismantling Iran’s proxy umbrella. For decades, Iran’s nuclear ambitions served a political and military purpose: creating a protective shield under which its terror network could operate. That network included Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Shiite-backed groups in Iraq and Syria.
Since October 7, Hamas has been severely degraded down to a shadow government and guerrilla force with limited to no military capability. During the war with Iran, Hezbollah did not fire a single rocket. The Houthis, who launched dozens of missiles at Israel in the months prior, managed only two over the course of the 12-day campaign. Iran’s entire regional strategy, built over years, crumbled under pressure. It has been defanged.
This is not just battlefield success. It is a transformation. In just 12 days, Israel left Iran’s nuclear aspirations, its myth of invincibility, and its network of terror proxies in rubble. What Tehran built over decades, Israel dismantled with precision, determination, and overwhelming force.
The most recent assessments of the effect of the American raid conclude that Iran still has 900 pounds of uranium enriched to just below weapons-grade, and that Iran still has “nuclear aspirations” that Spencer claims were left in “rubble” after 12 days of war with Israel.
Spencer says that Iran’s nuclear program has been “pushed back by years.” The most recent assessment by the DIA claims that Iran’s nuclear program has been set back by “at most a few months.” Which claim should we believe?
The Iranians themselves are likely discussing the pros and cons of trying, despite the expense and the danger of further Israeli and American strikes, to continue with their badly damaged nuclear program.
Spencer for now accepts the Trump administration’s claim that Iran’s nuclear program was “totally obliterated.” The DIA thinks instead that the program was “severely damaged,” and that the American attack set back Iran’s race to build a bomb by only “a few months.” Nonetheless, he is right to identify, and celebrate, all the ways that Israel managed in 12 days to inflict so much damage on all of Iran’s military power, destroying 1000 ballistic missiles, as well as missile factories and more than half of the country’s missile launchers, put out of commission six airbases, and destroyed the planes — F-4s, F-14s, and AH-1 — sitting on their tarmacs. The IDF, with help from Mossad, managed to assassinate 15 senior nuclear scientists whose collective knowledge cannot easily be replaced, and 20 top generals and commanders both in the IRGC and the regular army. Iran’s conventional forces have been devastated, while not a single Israel plane has been hit, and on the ground, only 24 Israelis have been killed, compared to 974 Iranians killed. In the 12-day war, Israel came out the clear winner, even if the American raid did not, in fact, “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear program.
Cynthia says
Exactly! However, if given more time the destruction of that regime could have been a possibility. Many Iranians are being tortured now and are fearful of rising up.
Alphonse Caprice says
Apparently, regime change was not on the agenda.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Yeah, another lost opportunity. I hate being on the same page as the Neocons, but I am now
Westman says
What was obliterated for certain is the notion that Khamenei is able to get any support from Allah while getting his ears trimmed back by Jews. Khamenei must be an embarrassment for Islam after being his own “Bagdad Bob”. It seems he must have something about him that Allah rejects even more than Israelis. Maybe his approving the torture and murder of Iranians in Allah’s name?
It takes a special psychopath to murder people and think you are God’s chosen. Romans and Greeks had experience with those and the end result was bad religion in the dustbin of history.
The Khamenei Regime must be creating hidden apostates every day. Other Mullahs must be plotting his removal.
Alphonse Caprice says
Well, point well made, but hey that means that there are an awful lot of special psychopaths out there and, let’s face it, it shows.
Alphonse Caprice says
Mr. John Spencer observes:
‘For decades, Iran’s nuclear ambitions served a political and military purpose: creating a protective shield under which its terror network could operate. That network included Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Shiite-backed groups in Iraq and Syria.’
This is what truely shocks me to the bone. This abject abuse of religious claims to further one’s own interests. And do they know, or perhaps more importantly realise, this themselves? Well this must be assumed, given the wanton torture, rape and violence these people use.
Many years ago, I read a short story by a certain Eric Blair* about an execution of some convict by hanging. This was in India, I understand. In the story Mr. Blair explains the criteria for the length of the rope, for example. Too long and the head is ripped off the body. Too short…. Never mind. Too revolting for words. Judging by the pictures of public hangings in Tehran, the condemned are just hoisted up by the noose. I’ve seen the results of that in a suice video. You don’t break your neck, you suffocate. Disgusting. Any such an execution must have impressive consequences for those attending it.
Suppose, for example, that one attends the amputation of fingers (recently reported on). This must be even more revolting to watch. So they know. They know…
* better known as George Orwell
gravenimage says
Yes–this is an escpecially painful form of hanging–and it is quite deliberate.
Alphonse Caprice says
And the thing that even shocks me more is that there are people, even ‘unbelievers’, that go along with all this filth.
Joe1 says
I beg to differ. Enriching Uranium is a fragile process. The centrifuges are fragile, and some of the products are volatile.
It would seem that the vibrations from the bombs would destroy the centrifuges, and that is a couple of years to get them back. This was the 2nd or 3rd time the centrifuges were destroyed. The first was with Stuxnet, the 2nd may have been from exploding light bulbs.
Then there is the volatile material. It doesn’t mean much that it burned. But if it burned hot enough to set the enriched material on fire (not an explosion), that fire will probably keep burning until the Uranium is gone. The project has to be started over, and that takes a long time.
Hugh Fitzgerald says
Thank you for that information.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
How flammable is uranium hHexafluoride UF₆? Normally, the reason something would burn is that it would oxidize (yeah, fluorine is an “oxidizing” agent, but the ultimate one in the periodic table), so it would seem that UF₆ is the most stable compound of uranium that can exist (not factoring in nuclear breakdowns of uranium). It sublimes at 56.5℃, so that material should be gone pretty quickly.
I do think that that particular mountain would be unusable in future, & that the Iranians would have to start from scratch building it at a new mountain, which could take 4 years
David says
Trump should be praised for the attack on 3 sites, but blundered in forcing a cease-fire on Israel. Both the U.S. and Israel should have continued for a while, obliterating everything of importance and working as best they could for regime change. The 12-day war cannot be considered a victory, because the U.S.’s goals were completely wrong.
gravenimage says
Agreed.
gravenimage says
‘This is not just battlefield success. It is a transformation.’
……………………………………..
Hear, hear!