In April and October of 2024, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. The Jewish state responded by weakening Iran’s air defenses, but it did not go after any major installations. It is quite possible that the regime felt that since Israel did not become more aggressive, it was a sign that the Jewish State wouldn’t risk a major direct attack. But as we’ve seen, they were very, very wrong.
What the Iranians should have understood, but failed to, was that Israel’s response on October 26, 2024 to Iran’s previous volley of ballistic missiles managed to destroy most of Iran’s anti-missile defense systems. When the time came, Israel could be sure that it would have little difficulty penetrating Iran’s air space. And that is exactly what happened on June 13, 2025, as the IDF attacked Iran and swiftly took control of the skies.
Now the Iranians have seen just how aggressive the IDF can be. It has attacked and destroyed hundreds of ballistic missiles and missile storehouses. It has severely damaged six major airbases, and destroyed Iranian planes sitting on the tarmac, including F-4s, F-14s, and AH-1s. It has bombed more than two dozen nuclear sites, including those at Natanz and Isfahan that would again be hit by the Americans on June 22. And after the American strike, the IDF has again bombed Fordow, to make sure that its own bombs penetrate to the deepest part of the crater created by six of the American 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs. The Israelis, it seems, are not convinced that the Fordow site was “totally obliterated” in the American strike. And their cautious assessment undermines Trump’s bluster about the American raid having “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The Iranians continued to be pounded by the IDF until Trump issued his diktat, demanding both Israel and Iran agree to a ceasefire. His blaming of Israel for violating the ceasefire was both foul and foul-mouthed; the IDF did not violate, but rather enforced, the ceasefire that Iran had violated. The IDF sent only a brief reminder, in the form of an airstrike on a single radar installation in Iran.
The 12-day war with Israel has so weakened the central government in Iran that the country’s two largest minorities — the Azeris and the Kurds — might even attempt to secede from Iran in order to join with their ethnic brothers in states of their own. The more than 20 million Azeris in Iran could try to become part of an expanded Azerbaijan, which now contains only 9 million Azeris. And the nine million Iranian Kurds in Iran might try to form an independent Kurdistan that in time could include the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, and possibly even including the Kurds in Turkey. Israel has managed to devastate both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. By knocking out Hezbollah, the IDF deprived Assad of his closest ally, and paved the way for the Sunni rebels, headed by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, to take over Syria. The only proxy Iran now has consists of the qat-chewing, rifle-raising, Allahu-akbaring ragtag army of the Houthis in Yemen, who have been bombed repeatedly, along with their airport in Sanaa and their port at Hodeidah, by Israel, and now cannot manage more than an occasional missile lobbed at Israel. Iran, then, is in this latest war with Israel on its own.
Should the regime fall, to be followed by a struggle for power among competing groups, should the largest minorities in Iran rise up to demand autonomy or perhaps a separate state, Iran will be so racked by domestic turmoil that it will likely have neither the will nor the ability to continue with a new nuclear program. The first nuclear program cost Iran $500 billion in sunk costs and in losses due to sanctions. As a result, Iran — which with its vast oil and gas deposits ought to be in the same deep-pocketed league as the Sunni Arab oil states, is now impoverished. The people of Iran will not stomach a renewed nuclear program that will cost them a similar sum. The Muslim fanatics now ruling in Tehran don’t realize it yet, but they are on their way out.
Billy says
Islam wreaks havoc and impoverishes every nation from within as taught in Islam’s Quran(Quran 9:5, 29, 111, etc.). Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, etc. will continue to suffer similar fates in the near future as a Revived Islamic Empire will emerge to terrorize Israel, America, and the world.
Allah’s hateful Islam, a Terrorist-Criminal Enterprise and a Murderous Cult with its Believers, Terrorists for Allah continually fund, promote, and practice ideological subversion, propaganda, bigotry, discrimination, deceit, mass murder, supremacy, segregation, hatred, incitement to violence, genocide, and terrorism as taught in Islamic Law, Sharia, and in Islam’s Quran(Quran 9:41, 88; 5:35, etc.). Hence, Muslim actions should be legally challenged with a multi-faceted force of Western Laws like Muslims wield against Americans and Westerners via Tax Exempt Organizations, the Media and Hollywood, Foreign Funding, etc. because Islam violates and is incompatible with Western Laws(Quran 9:5,29, 111; 49:15; 60:4 etc.).
Like a Foreign Terrorist Organization(FTO) designated by the USA Secretary of State, Islam functions as a MUSLIM TERRORIST ORGANIZATION(MTO) fighting against Non-Muslims and NOT A PEACEFUL religion under Western Law because Islam funds, teaches, and promotes Terrorist Criminal Organizations with Muslims as Terrorists for Allah(Quran 9:5,29, 111; 49:15 etc.).
Allah’s demoniacal Islam, a hateful Antichrist Ideology, is using Western Freedoms and Laws against Non-Muslims to conquer Non-Muslims under Islamic Rule. Non-Muslims should legally designate Islam as a Muslim Terrorist Organization(MTO) where Mosques, Muslim Schools, Islamic Centers, Sharia Courts, and Muslim Organizations are banned because of their incitement of segregation and discrimination to fight back against ISLAMIZATION, Muslim subjugation, and tyrannical violence(Quran 4:65; 9:5,29,111; 60:4; 98:6-7 and more).
Sahih Bukhari 3126 says, “… the Prophet said, He who fights so that Allah’s Word(ie. Islam) should be superior, fights for Allah’s Cause.” Allah in Quran 9:111 says, “Surely Allah has purchased from the believers[Muslims] their souls and their money so that they may have the garden[Heavenly Paradise]. They engage in war for the sake of Allah[ie. Allah’s Cause), so they kill and are killed…”.
Under Islam and Islamic Law, Muslims have the Legal Right and the Quranic Duty to terrorize Non-Muslims because neglecting this QURANIC DUTY is a Crime against tyrannical Allah. Jihad means warfare against Non-Muslims to ESTABLISH ISLAM’S RELIGION AS SUPREME(Quran 3:115, 151; 9:5, 29, 111; Muslim Law Manual: “Reliance of the Traveller”, o9.0 and more).
More specifically, Islam, a terroristic-totalitarian way of life, is a Muslim Terrorist Ideology and Murderous, Criminal Enterprise of: incitement, intolerance, continuous war, discrimination, segregation, supremacy, genocide, polygamy, propaganda, deceit, hatred, sedition, rape, terrorism, and violence against all Non-Muslims as taught in the Quran(Quran 2:208,216; 4:65, 89,95, 115; 5:14,64; 8:12,39,60, 74; 9:5,21,29,36, 41,49, 73,88, 111,123; 21:92; 49:15; 60:4; 61:9-11; 62:6; 89:14; etc.).
Gurek says
Yes, it’s islam, not just Iran as the Western propagandist idiots who are allied to Sunni terrorists claim.
OLD GUY says
Political Islam is truly the culprit in the world turmoil today.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Talking about the potential of different Iranian provinces seceding, Reza Pahlavi has already made the integrity of Iran one of the points of his transition plan. Also, over the weekend, I watched interviews of some Iranian dissident expats, and one of them pointed out that when Mahsa Amini – who was a Kurdish woman – was murdered, there were protests throughout Iran, not just in Kurdish areas, and by people of all ethnic groups
Historically, the Kurds had been best treated in Iran, out of the 4 countries in which they live, during the Shah’s reign. In fact, while reading up a bit on Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi, Wiki mentioned that he wanted to support the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga in fighting for indepence from Iraq, and the US rejected it b’cos it would encourage Turkish Kurds to rebel, and they didn’t want to antagonize Ankara. While there has been the Peshmerga in Iraq, the PKK in Turkey and the SDF in Syria, I’ve not read of any Kurdish secessionist movement in Iran. Similarly, Azerbaijan is well integrated in Iran, despite being Turkic: in fact, the Safavid dynasty that flipped Iran from sunni to shi’a was an Azeri dynasty that started in Ardabil. Baku’s claims on Iran’s province of the same name as the ex Soviet republic would fall on deaf ears
On the question of the mullahs being on their way out, Iran seems to be experiencing a more acute version of the Biden problem. During Biden’s term, he was out of sight for so many days that people were wondering about “proof of life” as well as who was actually running the country. Iran now has their version of this: Khomenei, who used to regularly surface for rallies in Teheran, has gone underground for several days, and few Iranians know where he is, and are wondering about it. If too much time lapses w/o any proof of life, that could potentially start an insurrection
The main thing that’s giving the regime borrowed time is the success w/ which it has shut down the internet, preventing Iranians from accessing social, or indeed any media. That may slow down the spread of information, but not stop it. But the converse is true as well: let’s say that slowly, the news of the regime’s degradation spreads throughout the country, and then the regime manages to rally some forces. News will be just as slow to spread about its recovery, and if they restore internet services, the same subversive content that they sought to suppress would again be available
I am rooting for the Iranians to somehow topple this regime within weeks, if not days. Hopefully, if they can hunt down all the potential successors of Khamenei, as well as Khamenei himself, it’ll all come crashing down. Hizbullah, which used to provide the forces to suppress the Iranian populace, is too weakened, and Syria will no longer allow them to use their airspace to fly to Iran, and neither will Israel
Walter Sieruk says
The policy of the Trump administration regarding that agressive “Islamic Republic of Iran” was too limited, . the first part was right ,which is to :stop Iran’s nuclear weapons development project, ” yet the second part is folly” which is “Not to seek a regime change”
Since that Islamic state is now weak regime change would be a very good idea and a righteous action to undergo . For since that so called “ceasefire” Iran will use that time to regain its military power and then strike Israel with many missile attacks again. It would have had been best to just :get it all over with and destroy that dangerous and hostile :mullah regime one and for all.
Furthermore, of that that hostile vicious and death inflecting oppressive current Islamic regime was defeated, and destroyed ,as it should have had been and then a genuine Iranian government would need to be installed which ensures and respects the basic humans rights of the Iranian people. This is both necessary and important.
An authentic and rightfully just Iranian government would be a safeguard to the security and freedom of the Iranian people.
To elaborate on all this a bit more the intellect and philosopher John Locke, ideas of precepts which do apply to this subject. For Mr. Locke taught that any good government has the duty to ensure the security and safety of its citizens. Yet when a tyranny is the people in the tyrannical government do have every natural and ethical right to overthrow that terrible and oppressive tyrannical government.
Rick Gordon says
Regarding your thoughts on current Iranian minorities and the Iranian citizens affected – may it be ‘from your mouth to G-d’s ears’.
Walter Sieruk says
It’s a valid clam some things under the rule of the Shah of Iran bad. Nevertheless, after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the establishment of what is known as the “Islamic Republic of Iran” things went not from “bad to worse” but it skiped the word “worse,” to bad to the very worst possible too the most horrific extent possible.
To put it another way, the government of the Shah of Iran had its faults .Still, under the tyranny of that “mullah regime” of Iran , to say it “has some faults” isn’t exactly true, because the word “some” would put a limit on the number of things that ‘s wrong with that Islamic regime of Iran.
abu taleb says
There are still too many muslims in Iran, I don’t expect any good thing in the short future.
Gurek says
Unless they destroy the terrorist mosques don’t be hopeful.