America just became unpredictable.
One of the great weaknesses of American foreign policy has been our predictability. Our opponents have been able to pinpoint what we would and would not do.
While one President Trump’s greatest strengths has been his unpredictability. And on the Iran strikes, he not only kept everyone guessing until the last minute, but used sophisticated means to draw everyone off. Tucker Carlson’s pal Dan Caldwell was booted from the Pentagon over allegations of leaking. So were a number of others. When the strikes were actually launched, there were zero leaks despite claims by some in the media that they were getting information from anonymous “officials”. Everyone had learned to stay quiet on the big issue.
The media and social media analysts were misled about our staging prep for an attack which proceeded quite differently.
President Trump’s “two week” deadline may have been sincere but fell apart when Iran refused to engage in high-level negotiations, but it may have been another level of the feint.
Either way everyone was caught by surprise. Including yours truly. And that’s a good thing.
It’s also a message to China. The CCP believes that it can anticipate and predict us. When it can’t, it gets nervous. Any CCP plan for Taiwan just became a lot shakier because there is no way that Xi and top officials can look at what happened with Iran and believe that they can gauge America’s response with any degree of certainity.
The Israeli response after Oct 7 against Hezbollah and now Iran already showed how war plans by their allies could go awry through misdirection and sophisticated planning. The Iran strikes are a more direct warning to China that America’s moves cannot be predicted and that, like the Israelis, we might be capable of something more sophisticated than our actions in the last generaton would suggest.
China’s allies in the Middle East are losing. And America just became unpredictable. That might buy us the time we need in the Pacific.
It now seems likelier that Xi will push back whatever he was planning for after 2028.
Johanna Jahns says
also, China uses Russian air defense systems which turned out to be not very useful against the Israeli strikes.Also that will push China back.
Cynthia says
Great signaling to the world that US power will be used when forced.
somehistory says
I read a report that china and russia aren’t as cozy as we have been told for quite some time….there are rifts and disagreements.
gravenimage says
Yes–and I’m not sure that either of them would start a war with the West for the Mullahs.
Brogo57 says
They’ve used supposed rifts to their advantage in the past. Could be exactly what they want us to think.
gravenimage says
Brogo, if you have evidene that Russia and China want to kill–or die–for Iranan surpremacsm, I’d love to see it. Of course, both hate the free West, but that may not be the same thng.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I read hours ago that Beijing warned Iran against closing the Straits of Hormuz. I doubt that Iran is in any position to do any of that
gravenimage says
The Trump Iran Strikes Were a Message to China
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Hope this was a warning to Iran, as well…