The writer on foreign policy Alan Zeitlin has identified here what he considers to be the five greatest miscalculations by Iran: “The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made,” by Alan Zeitlin, Algemeiner, June 23, 2025:
President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran surprised some. Here are the five main miscalculations the Iranian regime made that led to this point. The Iranian regime has seen its miscalculations surface in layers, like the peeling of an onion. Though no one can predict the future and some things remain unclear, it is important to examine five mistakes.
1. Iran’s leaders thought Trump was bluffing and wouldn’t attack directly.
President Trump was not lying when he said he didn’t want to start new wars. Perhaps military action could have been prevented if Iran’s leaders offered inspections, negotiated in good faith, and were ready to seriously constrict uranium enrichment.
Many news reports and podcasts made the regime think the isolationist wing of Trump’s power base had his ear, and the public would fear attacks on US servicemen in the region so much it would be too costly to attack. Trump did kill General Qassem Soleimani in his first term, but he didn’t go further. The stealth B-2 bombers that dropped the huge bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities cost more than $2 billion each, and the regime may have thought Trump would be risk averse to seeing them shot down. While it is extremely difficult to take down B-2 planes, seeing that no Israeli planes were shot down and Iran’s defenses were weakened likely emboldened Trump.
2. Iran’s leaders thought proxies and “allies” would make them bulletproof.
With the well-armed Hezbollah, the Houthis disrupting shipping routes, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Syria, Tehran thought Israel and the US would be too scared to attack it directly.
But by the time Trump was considering whether to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, all of Iran’s proxies in the region, save for the Houthis, had been so battered and weakened by the IDF as to be unable to offer any military help. Hamas in Gaza is clinging to life support, Hezbollah has seen 90% of its once-vast store of missiles and rockets destroyed by the IDF, Syria is now under new, Sunni management that is virulently anti-Iran for the help Tehran provided to Assad during the Syrian civil war. Only the Houthis, though they have been hit hard by IDF attacks on the port of Hodeidah and the airbase in Sanaa, still pose a most modest threat to Israel, by occasionally lobbing a missile or a drone at the Jewish state.
Iran never imagined Hezbollah’s power would be reduced so quickly, it did not expect the Syrian government to fall in the way that it did, and it did not expect to see Hamas and the Houthis so weakened. The Iranian regime, which assisted Russia in its war against Ukraine with drones, and provides a huge amount of oil to China, also imagined the potential threat of Russia or China coming to its aid might scare off any significant attack. There remains a possibility that China, North Korea, or Russia could get involved militarily — but it is unlikely. More likely the Houthis will resume firing missiles….
Neither Russia nor China was willing to risk their own military assets to rescue the Iranian regime. Russia is willing to buy Iranian drones and China to buy Iranian oil, but neither wanted to take part in what might well have become a direct clash with either the powerful IDF or, still more daunting, with the American military.
The October 7 attack by Hamas, in which 1,200 Israels were raped, tortured, mutilated, and murdered, at once united Israel; all the political warfare over the issue of judicial reform that seemed before that date to be tearing the Israeli public apart, disappeared on October 7.
Yes, Mossad and Shin Bet made a terrible error in dismissing the threat of a mass cross-border attack by Hamas on October 7. But since then, the Mossad has recovered and demonstrated the power of what is clearly an immense intelligence network inside Iran, consisting both of Persian-speaking Mossad agents and of disaffected Iranians — of whom there are a great many — hoping to hasten the regime’s demise.
Mossad not only managed to smuggle drones into Iran, to be launched from launchers its local agents had hidden around the country, but also may have smuggled in the components for a drone factory. The Mossad detected the precise locations of fifteen of Iran’s most important nuclear scientists, as well as about twenty generals in both the IRGC and the regular Iranian army, and eliminated all of them.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Given the general islamic lack of gratitude towards infidels for anything, it’s somewhat hilarious to see them paid back in their coin, w/ Russia happy to use their drones but not militarily back them, and same for China – happy to use their oil but not lift a finger to preserve them
Wellington says
Yes, how fitting considering Islam’s “track record” on gratitude. Both Russia and China have seen what is so obvious for so many to see and that is that Iran is a loser but might as well, what the Hell, still take what one can from a loser. If only Russia and China were as weak as Iran but of course that is not the case, notwithstanding that both Russia and China have their own problems but not to the extent that Iran does.
gravenimage says
Yes–I don’t think that either Russia or China want to go to war with the West so that Iran can get nukes to destroy the Infidels.
somehistory says
The moz scums of the world…in and outside iran….would like to see the infidels of both china and russia dead as doornails.
moz scums are users and abusers. They are takers, giving only evil for any good extended to them.
The russian idiot who spoke of arming iran with nuclear warheads, would not be spared if in some future day, iran did receive those weapons and decided it was time for world wide war against all infidels so they could see their expected thirteenth.
Psychopaths never show appreciation. They are users and abusers and islime is chock-full of them.
SKA says
The Iranian leaders’ worst mistake was putting all their faith in a “god” who could have save anyone, in a false prophet and in a bogus pseudo-Abrahamic religion.
Westman says
Obviously, Islam was constructed for wars of swords and horses where dexterity rather than intellect was the determining factor. It has fallen behind since, the Persians perhaps being the brightest of Islam, yet still hampered by cousin matrimony and two generations of Ayatollahs.
Islam is failing in its ability to deliver the booty of old. No Islamic nation would survive a serious war with the US, Russia, or even France. If we could live another 100 years we would see Islam collapsing under its own non-productive weight, the exceptions being those with oil wealth.
Notice that Turkey’s Erdogan makes noises but doesn’t attack Israel because he previously suspected, and now knows for certain, the US would respond.
The declining power of Islam can’t be hidden from the Ummah, most having a window on the world in their hand.
Keys says
I hope you are right about Islam’s declining power, Westman. And I hope Muslims choose what is true and good over power.
Inbreeding, death for those who leave Islam, men dominating women, sex and booty, fear, hatred, sex in paradise, cultural/national pressure, public “on your knees for all to see” prayer, manipulation by their leaders, outbreeding the infidel, etc. all give Islam a heinous power difficult for them to overcome.
abu taleb says
Again and again, Islamic god fails to help the muslims, yet, the muslim leaders still “believe” that their god will help them. Or, they have realized it a long time ago, but they pretend to believe it. Then they can lie and fool their people so that they can reap the wealth and power from their people.
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
“Yes, Mossad and Shin Bet made a terrible error in dismissing the threat of a mass cross-border attack by Hamas on October 7. But since then, the Mossad has recovered…”
Things have turned out nicely since the Big Steal in ’20. In this context, have Biden running the White House (it was actually Barack, but never mind that) lulled the Moslems back into the comfort zone they enjoyed during the Obama years and BOOM, Trump lowered the hammer on them.
But I think it’s plausible the Mossad looked the other way in the months leading up to Oct 7. After all, Israel couldn’t let the then status quo of rockets and missiles almost every day. That was never peace, and allowing Hamas and Hizballah to be all Moslem on Israel wasn’t sustainable. Compliments to the Mossad and Bibi since that awful day. Historical success.
gravenimage says
Iran’s Biggest Miscalculations
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All good analysis, Mr. Fitzgerald.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Hugh
You listed 2. What were the other 3 miscalculations of Iran?