A Few Notes on the American Raid and Its Aftermath

1. Democrats are livid that Trump “went to war” without authorization from Congress. Does that attack on three nuclear sites, at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan really constitute a “war”? Has Trump just “dragged us into another seemingly endless conflict like those disastrous and wasteful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,” as his horrified enemies are now claiming? Let’s see: the Iraq war went on for eight years, and the war in Afghanistan for twenty years. The “war” that these hysterics are so outraged about consisted of bombing raids that took a total of 25 minutes, and then 90 minutes of travel in and out of Iranian air space. There were no American boots on the ground, and there won’t be.

2. Trump said that the nuclear sites were “totally obliterated.” The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, was more cautious, claiming that “final battle damage will take some time, but initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.” But until the IAEA inspectors can visit the site, it’s still a matter of conjecture.

3.  A total of 125 US military aircraft, including bombers, fighter jets, and refueling tankers, were used in the raid. Seven of those were B-2 stealth bombers. Several other B-2 bombers headed west, with the Pentagon announcing they were going to be stationed in Guam. These were decoys, designed to fool Iran as to American intentions. This was one of the deception techniques used by the US. Another was Trump’s announcement that he would give Iran “two weeks” to agree to negotiate, temporarily lulling Iran, but after two days, he ordered the raid. The main strike force, including seven B-2 bombers, took off from Whiteman Airbase in Missouri, headed to Iran. Six bunker buster bombs were dropped on the nuclear site built deep inside a mountain at Fordow. The rest were dropped on the nuclear site built deep underground at Natanz. Just as the bombers entered Iranian airspace, two dozen Tomahawk missiles were fired from a submarine at the nuclear facilities in Isfahan. The entire bombing operation, for all three sites, took twenty-five minutes. The remaining ninety minutes were sent flying into, and then out of, Iranian airspace.

4. General Caine said that as the B-2 bombers entered Iranian airspace, the US deployed “several deception tactics, including decoys,” with fighter jets clearing the airspace ahead of them, checking for enemy aircraft and surface-to-air missiles. The lead B-2 then dropped two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) — also known as “bunker buster” bombs — on the nuclear site at Fordow. After that first strike, four more bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, each one widening and deepening the crater so that the nuclear enrichment plant at its base could be hit. Caine said a total of 14 MOPs were dropped on Fordow and Natanz.

5. On Saturday, the Secretary-General of the UN, António Guterres, denounced the American raid on Iran’s nuclear sites, declaring: “I am gravely alarmed by the use of force by the United States against Iran today. This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security.” Actually, the “escalation” in the region is that by Iran, in racing pell-mell to enrich enough uranium to weapons-grade level to allow it to build up to nine nuclear weapons.

6. When Guterres claimed that there is “no military solution,” what can he be thinking of? War against Nazi Germany ended not with diplomacy, but with a “military solution,” as the Russians entered Berlin and the western Allies — the U.S. and the U.K. — took over all of western Germany. A “military solution” — remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki — not diplomacy, ended the war with Imperial Japan. A military victory,not diplomacy, similarly ended World War I. António Guterres should read up on the history of warfare in the 20th century. Wars far more often end not through diplomacy, but with one side so battered that it has to sue for peace.

7. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, held on Sunday in response to a request by Iran, António Guterres warned of “catastrophic consequences” if war continued — by which he meant the war of self-defense being waged by Israel, and the just-completed raid on Iran the United States. Do you think the American attack on those three nuclear sites in Iran will lead to “catastrophic consequences,” or do you believe that depriving Iran of the ability to acquire nuclear weapons is precisely what will prevent “catastrophic consequences”?

8. The Israelis will not stop hitting targets all over Iran. The day after the American raid, the IDF completed another wave of air strikes in western Iran and Tehran. These included a strike on a surface-to-air missile launcher in the heart of the Iranian capital. That day a total of 200 Iranian targets were hit. The IDF said that the strikes targeted missile storage and launch infrastructure, satellite facilities, and military radar sites used for aerial surveillance in the provinces of Kermanshah and Hamadan

9. Iran has now threatened “retaliation” for the American raid. President Trump has warned Iran that if any American soldiers or civilians are harmed by Iran, the response will be overwhelming. Furthermore, he said he hoped there would be no need for additional action. But he warned that “this cannot continue,” and that Iran has “many targets left. If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.”

10. A day after the American raid, there were many in the media who began to wonder about the 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to a level of 60% that Iran was known to possess, and whether that enriched uranium had been stored in one of the three sites hit by the Americans, or had been hidden elsewhere. Particular attention was given to satellite imagery showing a line of trucks leaving the Fordow site two days before the American attack. “At the end of the day there are some really important things that haven’t been hit,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. “If this ends here, it’s a really incomplete strike.” In particular, Lewis says the strike doesn’t seem to have touched Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium. “Today, it still has that material and we still don’t know where it is,” he says.

11. Israel has “interesting intel” on the whereabouts of Iran’s 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

400 kilograms of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium may have been destroyed by the Americans on June 21, or that uranium may have been stored elsewhere and escaped destruction, but may now be in a place where the Israelis, who claim to have “interesting intel” on its whereabouts, can now destroy it. Stay tuned.