David Betz is a professor of War In the Modern World at King’s College London. He has been studying the internal disarray in the countries of Western Europe due to mass immigration of people, Muslims (he does not identify them as such, but it is clear whom he has in mind) who do not want to be integrated into Western societies, but are hoping, through demographic conquest, to dominate the indigenous non-Muslims. His message is clear. He says that “we are already past the tipping point.” By this, he means that the tens of millions of Muslim migrants now living in Western Europe are a destabilizing presence, who threaten the wellbeing of the indigenous non-Muslims, and this may soon lead, he believes, to the possibility of civil wars. More on his grim prediction can be found here: “‘We’re Already Past The Tipping Point’: Academic Sounds ‘Civil War’ Warning For High-Migration Western Nations,” by Oliver JJ Lane, Breitbart, June 14, 2025:
A London academic has appealed to policymakers and military leaders to consider taking remedial action to minimise the impact of civil wars, which he warns have become a distinct possibility in Western nations.
Professor of War in the Modern World, David Betz of King’s College London, has claimed that many European countries now exhibit signs of being in a pre-civil war state. According to his research, there is a statistically significant chance of a war breaking out in the next five years in a Western state, and given Europe’s interconnected nature, it could spark similar conflicts in neighbouring nations.
Previously a relatively obscure figure, Betz has steadily picked up attention through 2025 for his warnings about the potential danger from the Balkanisation of British and other European nations. This week, he went further yet and said in conversation with documentary maker and former BBC presenter Andrew Gold that it now appears to be too late to actually prevent things getting “very much worse”, and urged decision-makers to act to at least cushion the blow.
In a chilling warning, the academic said, “I would probably avoid big cities. I would suggest you reduce your exposure to big cities if you are able.”
The coming violence, he believes, has been made inevitable by decades of government ineptitude and can’t be totally avoided. Betz asserted that only a strategy of minimisation remains. He said:
… there isn’t anything they can do, it’s baked in. We’re already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem… almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view.
Anything the government tries to do at this point… you can solve one kind of problem, but it will aggravate another kind of problem in doing so, and you get back to violence. The question really is about mitigating the costs, to my mind, not about preventing the outcome, I’m sorry to say… I have not heard a credible political way forward and I don’t see a single political figure who is credible in the role of national saviour, or even inclined to do so.
… “the bottom line is I don’t think there is now a political solution to this which takes the form of everything just working out OK after some period of difficulty. Things are bad now, but they are going to get very much worse. Hopefully after they will get better, but you will have to go through the period of very much worse before you get there.
While Betz was reluctant to be drawn on exactly what might happen, he pointed to how deadly other civil wars have been. Citing what the United Kingdom euphemistically calls the ‘Troubles’ in Northern Ireland, Betz pointed out that in the worst year of that conflict, 500 people died in a Northern Ireland of just a few million people. Mapping that onto the 70 million who live in the United Kingdom today, that could mean 23,000 people die in a similar conflict….
Why will “things get very much worse”? Because of inexorable demographic changes, the result both of continued, mostly illegal, immigration by Muslims, and of the fact that those Muslims, once inside Europe, have much higher fertility rates than the non-Muslims in whose countries they now live.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
He is right. Except that unlike the US, Europe doesn’t have an armed citizenry. I just fear they will be crushed by the jihadists
40 rounds says
I don’t think they would be crushed –yet , but you are totally correct about the armed citizenry or lack thereof
Michael Stone says
I guarantee you, the Muslims are doing whatever they have to do to covertly stockpile arms. It’s not like the English haven’t been in that situation before under various Kings. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. Times are serious.
40 rounds says
You’re probably right and they all, at least, carry knives and the women too and would have no problem using them against native Brits.
England Invaded says
Known to hide them in their terror training camps with the green domes. Police won’t search them.
Magooey says
During the riots after the three little girls were killed last year, there was a video where the British police asked the Muslims to return their weapons to the mosque.
somehistory says
When someone is trying to force his way upon another, and won’t take no for an answer, ….
So many fools the world over, and blinded by their own cowardice and greed (for money and power), they have made the world a very unstable and unsafe place to be.
Hugh Fitzgerald says
Don’t forget stupidity. It is the most powerful force on earth.
somehistory says
I did write “fools.”
Your comment reminds me of a song by Frank Sinatra. “Something Stupid.”
England Invaded says
He is not the only one speaking of this over recent months. I hope he is correct. It is the only way.
It has been an invasion in the UK for near 30 years. It is therefore a war. In wars, invaders and traitors are dispatched.
Edmund Carey says
This will get practically no air time.
Isabella van der westhuizen says
Forgive a degree of schadenfreude from us white Africans. For decades we were vilified and pilloried by Swedes, Brits and so many enlightened types. In Rhodesia and eventually South Africa we were forced to allow majority rule. Whenever we objected we were called all sorts of names. Let us see how these oh so wise western Europeans deal with this major demographic change now . Good luck to you.
gravenimage says
Isabella, I take your point, but your idea that Islam destroying the West will make things better for White Africans is mistaken.
Isabella van der westhuizen says
It will almost definitely not. It will make it worse. I am just being ironic. When we tried to tell the west we were shouted down. Living in. a post western society is not easy.
gravenimage says
I understand how you feel, Isabella. Whites are being brutalized in South Africa, and places like Zimbabwe are even worse. That few in the West care about this–or even know about it–is very troubling.
Winston 101 says
You are forgiven and applauded. I learned to question so much of the”justice” claims I grew up with. One day I decided to check out who Ian Smith actually was and what Rhodesia was really like. What an eyeopener. I learned from Mr. Smith that when you have a social theory, that theory can be tested by making predictions. Tragically, Mr. Smith’s predictions were correct. The results are all on full display in Zimbabwe.
Thank you for bringing up “majority rule”. I’ve often wondered why the English don’t claim it for Great Britain before they are the overtaken by Islam’s stealthy Birthrate Jihad?
Michael Stone says
The only way this will ever be reversed is if Europeans focus on removing the treasonous politicians that literally opened the door for this to happen first. You also need to start stockpiling your own arms however you can do it because you know the Muslims are. Oh, and also intensely fight, the left’s decades, long, effective campaign, to destroy the European family through various techniques, such as the trans agenda, the homosexual agenda, the environmental agenda, heavy taxation and the constant denigration of motherhood and family life to reverse your birth rates.
SKA says
This has been a deliberate sabotage of Christendom by the secularist left. Their failed economic policies have been costing them votes from the native citizenry. So their “solution” is to import a shiftless class of social welfare state dependents who will vote for them en masse. But being secularists we have wholly underestimated the propensity for these hoards to resort to violence to impose their “civilization” into the host nations. But of course if worse comes to worse they can just save their own skins by moving to the USA.
Wellington says
All free nations (or what’s left of them) should constitutionally and lawfully have an equivalent to America’s Second Amendment. Be wary of all those who would assert otherwise. Whatever their reasons, none are for the people to preserve liberty. Such deficient human beings are either useful idiots or something even worse.
There is a key reason why the Founding Fathers of America placed the right to own arms immediately after the right to have freedom of speech, freedom to assemble peacefully and to have a free press and that is because sustaining freedom without the citizenry of a state having the right to keep and bear arms is hollow, utterly worthless actually.
Serves as another testimony to the wisdom of the Founding Fathers who established what is now the oldest written Constitution on Earth still being abided by, though many, like Leftists and Muslims, would dearly love to destroy this magnificent achievement as soon as possible. So, conclude accordingly.
Winston 101 says
Wellington,
So well said Wellington, and so true. The longer I live the more I stand in awe of the gift America has been given by its Founding Fathers. The First Amendment exists
because of the Second. Without the First, you can’t think and without the Second, you can’t act.
American society is violent but its citizens are armed to ultimately protect themselves. The once condemning, civilized Europeans, who gave up their arms, are now faced with an onslaught of violence, from an invading population, who despises them (along with their own governments!) and there stand the Europeans – unarmed and defenseless. The Swiss are the exception.
I do not enjoy saying this. I almost can’t bear to watch programs about Europe’s fabulous history and culture. I just keep thinking “the muslims will destroy this – this is haram.
The British Museum, The Louvre, The Van Gough Museum, music, theatre, art, dance and on and on. . .
Keep the ☪️anger of Islam out of all Western countries.
somehistory says
American society is violent. At one time, it was less so. People could go to work, school, shopping or for recreation and leave their doors….not only unlocked, but… wide open to allow a cool breeze to blow through the house…
They could hang clothes on the line without fear they would be stolen. Leave car doors unlocked, convertible tops down, and go about their day unworried about someone breaking in and committing grand theft auto.
One could allow the kids to play outside without having to constantly check to make sure they had not been abducted.
The children could go to school and the only thing that might happen would be a spit-ball to the neck. No stabbings in the restrooms, nor getting beaten up by a mob of mozscums on the playground. No lies, telling them they were ‘born’ in the wrong gender or that their parents were enslaving them to their own choices.
Families or individuals could go for a walk down main street or in a park without someone coming to stab them for being dressed as they chose.
Now…with the hordes who don’t respect the freedoms of others, much less the Law, society in America has become unsafe as the violence has reached an epidemic.
And the pols cheer on the side of the lawless.
Ralph says
Well said, Somehistory. In my 88 years, I have seen the degradation of American life at the hands of “liberal” politicians and the tepid (until now) Republicans. I recall very well how crime was infrequent and Americans had morals and ideals that came down from prior generations. Until recently, it’s been anything goes and the floodgates of immigration, both illegal and unwise (Mooslimes) have been opened. Some citizens are outraged when ICE is ordered to prosecute those immigrants who are here illegally. Why? Follow the money–or the votes. If there’s any consolation for my running short of future days, it’s that I won’t have to see the collapse of Western Civilization at the hands of Islamic crazies. Europeans are like frogs in a pot, enjoying the warm water but at least a few are beginning to sound the alarm, like prescient and bold Professor Betz. I expect that the British authorities will have him in prison for hate speech soon enough.
gravenimage says
A British Professor Calls for Nations of Western Europe to Prepare for Civil War
…………………………
I still think Europe could avoid this–but only if her nations start enforcing their laws.
john says
What is missed in his assessment is this influx of fighting age muslims is deliberate. What is obvious is they are meant to cause chaos so the home population will beg for draconian surveillance and hence human rights abuses by their government to rid them of this jihad.
gravenimage says
Yes–this is an invading army of military aged men. These are not refugees.
True Hindu says
Prof. David Betz and Michael Stone – the same thing is happening in India. Everything about Hindus and Hinduism is being vilified and I anticipate a civil war in India also. Huge quantity of weapons are being discovered in the basements of mosques. Muslim boys masquerade as Hindus and girls are getting raped in mass numbers. When the girls refuse to sleep with them, they are raped and murdered.
Slowly, the Hindus are voting for the far right politicians and and are awakening from their slumber.
gravenimage says
+1