How should the Americans hasten the fall of the Iranian regime? They must tighten the economic screws. They must not lift sanctions, but double down on sanctions. The Iranians, with one-third of them now living below the poverty line, are in despair. They realize how many tens of billions of dollars their despotic regime of fanatical Muslims has spent on Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Assad’s Syria, only to see it all — tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons — go up in smoke. The Iranian exiles want the Americans to end the current negotiations, and to present Iran with an ultimatum: either Iran hands over all of its uranium enriched above a level of about 5% (approximately the level needed to run a nuclear reactor), destroys its centrifuges, and destroys its ballistic missiles, or the Americans will put more sanctions on the regime, including putting a blockade the port of Bandar Abbas through which 80% of Iran’s exports, including its oil, pass, preventing the oil sales on which Iran depends for its survival.
Were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, Iranian dissidents believe, it would not only threaten Israel, but also the Sunni Arab states of the Gulf. Iran could threaten Israel’s existence, but also could destroy the oil production facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and the LNG facilities in Qatar, sending oil prices sky-high and causing untold damage to Western economies. Nor would the danger be limited to the Middle East. With nuclear weapons, Iran’s regime could threaten to hit American bases not just in the region — in the UAE, in Qatar, in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia — but targets in America itself if, for example, Washington were to refuse to reduce or cut off altogether military aid to Israel.
One Iranian dissident said that “blanket military action against Iran will not work and that ‘foreign powers cannot impose sustainable regime change; it must emerge from within. It cannot be forced through war.’”
Here I beg to differ. Why wouldn’t “blanket military action against Iran” work? Perhaps she means that such military action would lead Iranians, who had been dissidents, to now support the regime in an outpouring of nationalist fervor prompted by those foreign attacks. And instead of the regime collapsing in the face of such attacks, she fears it would be given a new lease on life.
Another dissident said: “We will do the work from within to rid the world of this barbaric, tentacled, terrorist regime.” And “all they ask is that the Western world stop saving the regime.” In other words, she believes that Iran’s regime is economically and militarily on its uppers, with most of the Iranians having lost any faith in the government’s ability to reform itself. All that the dissidents want is for the West to stop “saving the regime.” That means completely cutting off Iran’s oil sales by blockading the port of Bandar Abbas, and other exports as well. It means stopping Iran from importing Western goods, everything from MRI machines to Smartphones to helicopters. It means putting sanctions on many hundreds more of Iran’s senior officials, cutting off their ability to travel anywhere in the West, or to send their children for study in the West , which is important to so many of them.
Were Iran to manage to produce a few nuclear bombs, this would greatly enhance its prestige at home, and lessen the domestic opposition to the regime. It would also mean that the regime would now believe itself impervious to attack, either by the Great or by the Little Satan, out of their fear of Iran retaliating using nuclear weapons.
All of these Iranian dissidents feel keenly that their fate is being decided not just by foreigners — the American negotiating team led by Steve Witkoff, but by foreigners with little understanding of the Iranians’ ability, and intent, to deceive. They want hard-headed American negotiators, who will consult with them and with the Israelis at every step, and who will make clear to Iran that nothing can be achieved, no sanctions lifted, without Iran agreeing to give up all of its stockpile of uranium enriched beyond a level of 5%, and the centrifuges it has used for such uranium enrichment. And if Iran does not agree, then not only will the current sanctions remain, but many more sanctions will be put in place, driving Iran’s economy into the ground.
Kuffar says
How about NUKES?
Stive says
What is needed before anything is eliminate the regime. Khomeni and the mullahs meet together in Qom city every s often. Location doesn’t matter. Collateral damage doesn’t matter as it’s small compared to hitting infrastructure.
Is any sanity left, take out the regime instead of blowing up Iran. That is needed only if no other way. Can’t Iranians become free again?
Taffy says
A single 500 lb. Bomb through the roof of the Iranian parliament when it is session would do the trick, while simultaneously hitting IRGC headquarters and the Quds headquarters. I’m sure that Mossad’s spies and US spy satellites also know where the Ayatollah is at all times so he also becomes a target. With respect to the enriched uranium, the U.S. must ensure that it is all accounted for and those sneaky Iranians don’t keep different sets of books on their stash to fool inspectors.
I find it strange that for years it was reported that Iran was always just on the cusp of enriching enough 90% U-235 to make a bomb. This leads me to belief that they already have enough enriched uranium for several bombs, but no way to reliably deliver one, now that they lost the Lebanon and Syria connections.
Stive says
That’s why the missles from yemen are scary as one special missle could be a nightmare
PacosMojo says
“One Iranian dissident said that “blanket military action against Iran will not work and that ‘foreign powers cannot impose sustainable regime change; it must emerge from within. It cannot be forced through war.’”
Here I beg to differ.”
Of course you do. You’re not at any risk to be shipped over to Iran in case our “limited military actions” go south. Because, that’s never happened in the past.
gravenimage says
Seems that PacosMojo here doesn’t want any movement against Jihad terror–this fits the rest of his posts.
Greg says
Time to get the CIA playbook on “How to Overthrow Foreign Governments for Dummies “!
SKA says
What has keep the Iranian regime alive are its twang-Amin’s. Kermit Roosevelt brought down the Mossadeqgh regime by buying off Shaban “Bi-mokh (“Shaban the Brainless”)’s rant-a-mobs. Since coming to power the Islamist regime created several so-called “Foundations” – the Foundation for the Oppressed, the Martyrs’ Foundation and the WarVictims’ Foundation – essentially families who lost members during the so-called revolution as well as families who lost sons during the Iraq-Iran war all have pensions paid for from government oil revenues. However to remain eligible the make heads of these households or their male heirs have to be available at a telephone or pager call to mobilise to suppress anti-regime rioters, particularly if they are university students. When gasoline was being rationed they gangs of them drove around the cities on motorcycles to target women not wearing hijab properly as well as to break up any impromptu anti-regime protests which sometimes would erupt in the guise of Soccer victory celebrations. As long as these club-wielding “pensioners” get funds, rationed items and preference for their children in entering university and the like the government can rely on them along with the Basij and IRGC to keep order. But the real religion is “La ilaha il Do££ar” – once the regime is no longer able to $u$tain its rent-a-mobs (or the other security organs) then the regime is finished.
Alkflaeda says
I wonder where the various Foundations source their pagers?
SKA says
Not “twang-Amin’s” but “rent-a-mobs”
SKA says
I tried to post my analysis of the regime’s reliance on its “rent-a-mobs” through the social support networks that it calls its “Foundations” (Bunyad-ha). In addition to its IRGC and Basij armed wings the regime also supports hundreds of thousands of loyalist families who lost relatives either in the “revolution,” fighting in the Iraq-Iran war or else fighting counter-revolutionaries such as insurgent Kurds, Baluchis as well as anti-regime outfits like the People’s Mujahideen group. Adult males of these privileged groups are on call to take out their clubs and beat protestors to a pulp whenever needed. But their loyalty is a bought loyalty and the day that the regime cannot finance them any more is the day that the regime will die. In the end the real religion is “£a i££ah i£
Do££ar($)”.”
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I disagree w/ Hugh & most of the commentators above. Overthrowing the islamic regime is not something we should be involved w/: regime apologists still hark back to 1953 and Mossadegh. Rather, we should try and evaluate what would happen the day after
Yeah, Iran has a rogue regime, but one thing it is doing is keeping the neighboring wolves at bay. If Iran plunged into chaos, its neighbors, who are by no means remotely benign, would try to horn in & carve it up
Turkey would have a big interest: after all, every Iranian dynasty after the Samanids and before the Pahlevis was ethnically Turkic: Ghaznavid, Seljuq, Qhwarezmid, aq Qoyunlu, Safavid, Afsharid and Qajar. We have seen how Turkey wants a land bridge to Turkmenistan and the rest of the -stans, maybe even Afghanistan and Pakistan. We’ve seen what they did to Armenia: Iran is a much juicier prize. On top of that, Erdogan would get to indulge in his favorite hobby: bullying Kurds
Similarly, the Taliban would be happy to expand into Khorasan, of which much of Afghanistan was once a part. Pakistan is fighting a Balochi separatist movement and would love to prevent a Balochi state in Iran from inspiring a similar one in Pakistan. Then there is the Arabs in Khuzestan: they would be pretty tempting for Iraq to try & grab, and they themselves might not want to be a part of a secular Iran. Oh, and then there is Azerbaijan, which claims Iran’s province w/ the same name
If there is simply anarchy in Iran, that’s none of our business. However, those other 4 neighbors intervene & try to carve up Iran, that will only empower all of them, & make it more dangerous for both US & Israel. Which is why the US foreign policy establishment is doing the right thing in not toppling them. Incidentally, if the regime does fall, I do not want us to enter that country to prevent it from descending into chaos: that would be as inane as the nationbuilding in Afghanistan or Iraq
I have read some claims on the internet that Reza Pahlevi has a plan to give Iran a transitional government if the regime falls, as it transitions into a secular democracy. For Iran’s sake, I do hope that it’s true
PMK says
I don’t see how it can be done either, in this age of globalization.
“It means stopping Iran from importing Western goods, everything from MRI machines to Smartphones to helicopters”
China and Russia will help Iran. With so many of these items made in China, how do you stop them from going to Iran? Stopping Iran from selling oil will disrupt the world economy. China will happily buy the oil. With the globalists’ warnings of Trump tariffs harming the world economy, how many countries would refuse to do business with Iran?
The people of Iran did this to themselves. They are going to have to dig themselves out of the hole they are in.. I don’t like saying this but Islam remains an intractable enemy to all of civilization. Even if the mullahs lose power, they will still be in the mosque. Those of us who live in dar-al-harb remain at risk
Walter Sieruk says
Strong effective sanctions against that aggressive and bellicose hostile and oppressive Islamic regime of Iran important and necessary.
In addition, back in time with President Trump and his term in Office on the date of 4/22/19 the US Secretary of State ,Michael Pompeo spoke of that brutal and oppressive tyranny which oppresses the people of Iran and said “We will not appease their oppressors as that last administration did .” Pompeo then stated “We will support the Iranian people.”
As far back as on Tuesday, 2/5/ 19 in his second State on the Union a speech President Trump ,wisely, spoke of that Islamic tyranny of Iran as well as those in total power and complete of that tyrannical rogue state. For the President declared “It is a radical regime, they do bad, bad things.”
Moreover, an author of an article on a Freedom Site, Dariush Afshar, had explained the reality of the situation well when he wrote that the “People of Iran who fight for freedom in Iran and abroad put a huge gap and draw a prominent line between Iran and the Islamic regime in Tehran.”
This is sadly and tragically the terrible reality of this Islamic tyrannical regime of Iran. This Islamic tyranny has been well nicknamed “the mullahs regime” in which them mullahs and ayatollahs as well as other fiendish and fanatical Muslims in power have a strong and awful control of the Islamic regime of Iran and through their band of Islamic state “police” , who are called the “Revolutionary Guards “come down hard human rights of the Iranian people .
Therefore, the Iranian people who are trapped and forced to exist in this Islamic tyranny live in terrible fear of the mullahs and others in power in Iran. This is a tragic and sad reminder of the wisdom that was printed in the periodical of Benjamin Franklin which is entitled POOR RICHARDS’ ALMANAC that reads “Those who are feared are also hated.”
It also should be added, to this that the actual word “Republic” has on origin the Latin meaning “Of the people” With the mullahs ayatollahs in so much power and even influencing the parliament of this Islamic regime is tyranny is hardly a real republic .Furthermore the ruthless gang of thugs who are the stooges of those Muslim clerics, called the “Revolutionary Guards,” those Islamic State “police” come down hard on the human rights and freedoms of the Iranian people. Therefore the people do have the right to overthrow a tyranny. This reality had even been expressed and described by men of great intelligence .For example, the philosopher .John Locke. This is wisdom that mullahs and other villains in power in that Islamic tyranny don’t want the Iranian people to know about or understand.
Walter Sieruk says
The current Islamic regime of Iran isn’t a real, actual republic and needs to and should be overthrown and replaced genuine republic
About that Sharia law which that tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran is based on. That Islamic tyranny has the official title of “The Islamic Republic of Iran” and also about the chief and head Imam, Ayatollah Khomeini, who had a strong hand in establishing this so called “Republic “
The Islamic Republic of Iran is an actual oppressive tyranny in every sense of the word. It even puts women under extreme physical and life threating duress to force them wear the hijab.
This should serve as a reminder the very actual essence of that Islamic tyranny, Ayatollah Khomeini had made in known that “The Islamic Republic of Iran would be Islamic and nothing but .He declared ‘What the nation wants is an Islamic Republic . Not just a Republic, not a democratic Republic, not a democratic Islamic Republic. Do not use the word “democratic” to describe it. That is the Western style. ” [1]
[1]`THE HISTORY OF JIHAD by Robert Spencer, page 318.
gravenimage says
How Should the Americans Hasten the Fall of the Iranian Regime?
…………………………………….
All good suggestions.