Yonah Jeremy Bob has managed to provide a comprehensive narrative about Israel’s decision-makers, and what, during the past year, they have decided to do, or refrain from doing, about Iran’s nuclear program, and why. He argues that the program could have been destroyed soon after October 26, 2024, when IDF strikes destroyed Iran’s anti-missile defense systems, leaving the Islamic Republic wide open to attack. More on his riveting tale of Israel’s decision-makers as they work to ensure the survival of their tiny, permanently embattled state, can be found here: “‘Post’ reveals: Why and how Israel missed its chance to strike Iran’s nuclear sites – exclusive,” by Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, April
On April 13-14, 2024, Iran changed the Middle East forever, ending a decades-long covert shadow war with Israel by openly and directly attacking Israel with 180 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and dozens of cruise missiles.
Israel responded on April 19, 2024, by attacking one S-300 anti-aircraft defense system, which was protecting the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facility in Isfahan.
The Jewish state never seriously considered attacking Iran’s nuclear sites in April 2024 like it did in October 2024, but that first direct round between the sides set the stage for the more dramatic follow-up.
Although that end result is well-known, The Jerusalem Post now reveals for the first time the full extent of the debates between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then defense minister Yoav Gallant, and then IDF chief Herzi Halevi, then war cabinet ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, and Mossad Director David Barnea.
Similar but evolved debates came into play in October 2024 after Tehran attacked Israel directly a second time, this time with over 200 ballistic missiles on October 1, 2024.
This time a similar cast of characters debated the issues, but Gantz and Eisenkot were already out of the picture having exited the government on June 9, 2024.
And then there was a third round of the least reported debates after October 26, 2024, but before Donald Trump entered office, replacing Joe Biden as US president.
Here, Gallant was also mostly out of the picture, given that he was fired by Netanyahu on November 5, 2024, leaving Netanyahu along with defense chiefs Halevi, Barnea, and some of their top advisers.
What was radically different in the post-October 26 debates was that suddenly Israel knew it could pulverize Iran’s nuclear facilities almost at will, whereas until then there had been concerns about whether the Israeli air force could sufficiently outplay Iran’s S-300 anti aircraft defense systems for long enough to hit enough Iranian nuclear targets enough times to do the job.
And yet Israel held back….
What held Israel back after the IDF’s successful attack on Iranian anti-missile defense systems, including four S-300 batteries, on October 26, 2024, was mainly the desire to keep relations with the U.S. on an even keel while Biden was still in office, and also, the belief that before attacking Iran’s nuclear program, the IDF should finish its dismantlement of Hamas (close to completion), of Hezbollah (accomplished), and of the Houthis (a task now assumed by the Americans, who have pushed those qat-chewing rifle-toting allahu-akbaring primitives into a world of unexpected woe), while waiting for Trump to assume the office, at which time, the Israeli government decided (and we can see from Yonah Jeremy Bob’s piece just how many different, and changing, views there were among the men at the top of Israel’s security establishment), the IDF could focus its attention on Tehran’s nuclear program, secure in the belief that Trump would not only approve of an IDF attack on Iran, but would either provide the materiel needed — 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs, and B-2 Spirit bombers able to carry them. Perhaps Israeli pilots, unbeknownst to the world, have now been trained to pilot those planes. Or perhaps the American military will take part with Israel in such an attack.
The Israelis are now alarmed that Trump has decided to negotiate with Iran, afraid that Steve Witkoff may yet be snookered by an Iranian regime that will promise not to develop a bomb, but use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes. But why, then, enrich uranium, at great expense, to a level of 60%, just below weapons grade? What conceivable reason can there be? Will the Americans insist that Iran’s uranium should be enriched only to a level of 3-5%? And what happens if the Iranians refuse?
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The attacks on October 26th last year completely destroyed Iran’s air defenses, as well as every one of their undeclared (but known to Jerusalem) nuke sites. At that time, due to Jake Sullivan, Samantha Powers & Susan Rice, Israel avoided hitting declared nuke sites of Iran. But the brilliant thing they did was bomb everything that Iran hadn’t declared, so that Iran couldn’t denounce Israel for doing a thing to their nuke infrastructure, even though they did
Right now, since the DoD is war-allergic (even though they were happy to bomb the Houthis), Israel should make the case to Rubio, Waltz and Ratcliffe that either Israel or the US can do something like Israel’s 1981 bombing of Osirak: all that would need to be done would be a bombing – maybe a night bombing – of every known declared Iranian nuke site. It need not kill any Iranians (since President Trump was unwilling to do that in his last term when Iran downed a drone since it would be lives vs equipment), but it would achieve the objective of not merely setting back Iran’s nuke project, but also destroying years’ worth and trillions of dollars worth of work on Iran’s nuke projects. Once that happens, public resentment towards the regime will erupt into a mushroom cloud, in a manner of speaking, since their regime would have wasted all that money for nothing. Then it will be another attempted revolution, this time w/o Hizbullah in the picture
We don’t have to occupy Iran, try to remake that country in our image or do anything of that sort. Nor does “you break it, you buy it” apply: we wouldn’t owe Iran a thing for destroying their nuclear projects. That’s the argument that needs to be made to the new establishment in DC, so that even if they don’t wanna do it themselves, they at least greenlight Israel doing it
One more thing Israel should do – distance itself, if not completely disown, the US Jewish community, b’cos right now, muslims are more pro-GOP than Jews are, and so politically, the GOP has more to lose by supporting Israel. That’s not winning it too many new Jewish votes, but it could cost them some of the muslim votes they won last time. So Israel should persuade DC to let them do it, and have absolutely no conversations w/ J-Street, ADL or any of the sundry Jewish organizations in the US
Rick Gordon says
I have a great deal of trust for Rubio, but not the others.
Keys says
The Dem supporting Jews living in the US are fools to think Iran would not use nukes against the “Great Satan”.
These Jews live here – if the Iranians could get an nuke into NY, they’d be ID’d – Incinerated Democrats.
And the Iranians will plan for more than one attack site – there will likely be co-ordinated multiple US nuke targets, not just one.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The interesting sidenote to that is that Iran would select the major cities of the US first, if they had a choice of what to bomb and the capability to execute it. They would start w/ New York, DC, Chicago, San Francisco, LA, et al before they got anywhere near the heartland. In other words, all Dems would be dead before the Republicans in such an attack
ExSoldier762 says
It’s not the DoD that’s “war allergic” it’s Trump. He’s worried about his legacy as a peacemaker. I’m concerned that his negotiator, Witkoff is getting played partly because he himself is antisemitic. There’s only one reason for uranium enrichment to 60% and that’s a weapon. If Iran can get two, they’ll use them both. One for us and one for Israel. And they will use them both. They don’t need a launch vehicle. Think SUM OF ALL FEARS. Sail a cargo ship into a major port and martyr the crew with the bomb in a cargo hold or container.
Daniel Triplett says
That’s right. Iran doesn’t need ICBMs or strategic bomber aircraft or submarines to hit anyone with nukes. A modern 150 kt nuke warhead measures just 12″ x 32″. They could build dozens of them and hide them anywhere, strategically prepositioning them across the globe and hold the entire world hostage to Allah. This would be catastrophic. They’ve already declared they don’t care if their entire country is incinerated in the process of spreading Islam for Allah. The nuclear deterrence doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) only works with people who love their children as we love ours.
Cynthia says
Muslims are not pro GOP and leftists are the appeasers- Christian leftists, Hindu leftists, Muslim leftists and Hewish leftists.
Biden and Obama are not Jewish and sold the farm to Iranian mullahs.
gravenimage says
Israel Missed a Chance to Strike Iran’s Nuclear Program — Will It Have Another?
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I hope so–that Trump is trying to block the Israelis from acting is deeply troubling.