Israel May Still Strike Iran Without American Support

It must be maddening for Israel never to be certain where things stand with the Americans on the subject of Iran. Without informing the Israelis, Trump decided to have Steve Witkoff negotiate — not directly, but via Omani interlocutors — with the Iranians at the Omani Embassy in Rome over curtailing its nuclear program. We have had no news of a breakthrough. And the Israelis have been greatly disturbed that despite his many stern assurances that “Iran will not get the bomb,” President Trump has for now has ruled out having the American military join forces with the Israelis to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Every day, Iran enriches more uranium to 60% purity, just one step below weapons-grade. And the Iranians in Rome have been dragging out the talks with Witkoff, hoping in the meantime to continue their headlong rush toward acquiring enough weapons-grade uranium for a half-dozen bombs, which could be produced in a matter of a few months or, some suggest, even a few weeks.

The Israelis obviously cannot wait for the Americans to be disabused of the value of those “negotiations.” So now the Israelis have let it be known that they are considering launching an attack of their own, without American support, on Iran’s nuclear sites. It will not be a full-scale attack across all of Iran. And without the participation of the Americans, Israel will not possess the 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs that can successfully destroy the Natanz facility built deep underground, or the one at Fordow that has been built inside a mountain. But if Trump will not budge, Israel is prepared to do whatever it can on its own. After all, it has been carrying out attacks during the last ten years — think of the Stuxnet computer worm that caused Iranian centrifuges to speed up so fast that they destroyed themselves, and of the five nuclear scientists, including the scientific head of the program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whom the Mossad assassinated, one by one. There have been other Israeli attacks too, including some never publicly announced. The Israelis think they have “delayed” Iran’s program by a decade. So another attack, even if it does not totally destroy all the nuclear facilities, will again push forward the date when the bombs are finally manufactured. After a limited attack by the IDF alone, the Israelis no doubt hope that Trump will then approve American participation in a second strike, to finish the job.

More on Israel’s current thinking on Iran is discussed here: “Israel Still Eyeing a Limited Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities,” Algemeiner, April 19, 2025:

Israel has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months despite President Donald Trump telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US was for now unwilling to support such a move, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter….

Perhaps, if Witkoff’s negotiations with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the Omani Embassy in Rome are deliberately dragged out by the Iranians, so that they can continue their nuclear program without fear of American attack, at some point Trump will be fed up and call a halt to the negotiations, and instead will join Israel in destroying Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium and its ability to continue the enrichment process.

The Israelis have to weigh many factors. If they launch a limited attack without the Americans, how will Trump react? Will he claim credit for any damage the Israelis inflict, or will he be angry with the Israelis for going ahead with an attack when he has publicly said he favors diplomacy? What if the attack leads to massive retaliatory strikes — ballistic missiles — by Iran on Israel? Can the Israelis now hope to have the Americans help defend the Jewish state from those missiles, as they did so successfully when Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1?

A senior Iranian security official said Tehran was aware of Israeli planning and that an attack would provoke “a harsh and unwavering response from Iran.”

That Iranian official is akin to the frog who puffs himself up to appear larger than he is, in order to scare off his enemies. Consider the complete failure of Iran’s massive missile strike on Israel last October 1, in which not a single Israeli was killed. After that attack, Israel responded on October 26, 2024, destroying almost all of Iran’s air defense systems. Iran promised a terrible vengeance. Almost six months have gone by, and there hasn’t been even a single drone launched by Iran at Israel.