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Bracing for US-Canada trade war; Trudeau and Canada’s official opposition leader weigh in

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In a news release from the Government of Canada:

Today, the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs, and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that the Government of Canada is moving forward with 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of goods in response to the unjustified and unreasonable tariffs imposed by the United States (U.S.) on Canadian goods.

These countermeasures have one goal: to protect and defend Canada’s interests, consumers, workers, and businesses….

Less than 1 per cent of the fentanyl and illegal crossings into the United States come from Canada. We will not stand idly by when our nation is being needlessly and unfairly targeted. The government will defend Canadian interests and jobs. We stand ready to support affected workers and businesses.

The U.S. administration’s decision to impose tariffs will have devastating consequences for the American economy and people. Tariffs will upend production at U.S. auto assembly plants and oil refineries, raise costs for American consumers—at gas pumps and grocery stores—and put American prosperity at risk…..

Time will tell how the trade war between the US and Canada will play out, and to what end. Its longterm impact is unpredictable, given the ripple effects of the market system, factoring in the sum total of the effects upon all the countries that are tied up in the cycle of US trade. The short term effects, however, can be assessed and will be discussed further on.

Those in Canada who celebrated Trump’s victory knew that it was high time for an America-First policy. They are also aware of the fact that America has the world’s biggest economy. Every supporter of freedom knows unequivocally that the leftist policies of open-door mass migration, identity politics, and massive aid packages to harmful entities (such as the UN, the WHO, Afghanistan that ended up with the Taliban, and the Palestinian “refugee” scam, etc.), which was largely paid by the US, have nearly destroyed the economies, freedoms and traditions of Western countries.

The North American continent was devastated under two destructive leftist regimes, those of Biden and Trudeau. Both also launched unrelenting  attacks against their citizens’ freedoms, while Biden opened the southern border for hostile political forces as well as criminal and jihadist elements to enter. Only a fool at this juncture would deem such concerns as “anti-immigrant,” as opposed to advocating for responsible migration.

We owe leftist leaders the blame for the continental turmoil we’re in, even as criticism mounts against Trump.

As a Canadian myself, it is dispiriting to witness enmity unfold between Canada and the US; for decades, I have supported and advocated for a unified continent under responsible, unapologetic leadership. Stop apologizing and paying for past wrongs, treat everyone equally, carefully screen immigrants, and open up dialogue and space for criticizing dangerous ideologies that threaten the core of Judeo-Christian societies. All that isn’t too much to expect in developed, sophisticated Western nations. Then attention can be paid to progress.

We’re now a continent at “war” after nearly a decade of woke Trudeau and four years of a decrepit, woke Biden administration, with frustrated voices on both sides of our common border. A divided continent is not the preferred approach in a world that has been left in shambles by a weakened America under Biden.

Canada is also at a critical point with the Liberal government declining, in part due to Trump; his Canadian supporters were grateful for the role he played. As the Telegraph stated in December: Donald Trump may just have toppled Justin Trudeau’s government. Frank Gaffney interviewed me on the failing Liberals and the real hope of a Conservative government.

But then Trudeau prorogued parliament. Now a trade war has started, catapulting a trajectory that could have put North America on a strong path with a Conservative government working closely with Trump. An Ipsos poll found in mid-December that Poilievre “is seen as Canada’s best option in dealing with an incoming Trump administration.” The Liberals were down to a 21% approval rating.

An honest question: had a Conservative government been in power, would this trade war have ensued?

It’s more immediately obvious what the impact of the US-Canada trade war looks like for Canada. Canadian products will no longer be as attractive to American companies, which are the ones actually paying the cost. A tariff is like a tax. No one wants to pay them, so they encourage American companies to turn to American production, or find other countries to supply them. Although domestic production is desirable, when forced too drastically, the impact can be severe.

Justin Trudeau delivered a speech in reaction to Trump’s tariffs:

Trudeau’s concerns are disingenuous at best coming from a man described justifiably as “Stalinesque” by one of his own appointed senators. Trudeau has destroyed Canada’s economy along with the housing industry, but he himself (unethically) lives an affluent lifestyle on the backs of the Canadians whom he professes to care about, while trampling the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

The trade war now threatens to sabotage Canada’s escape from the reckless Liberals, as the party buys time and maneuvers to appear as if it is fixing a crisis. Recalling the words of Hillary Clinton: “Never waste a good crisis.”

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre also offered a reaction to the tariffs:

We can agree, disagree and emote, but a trade war is bad news for our continent. We can only hope to all undo all that the Liberals have created.

The trade war’s effect on Americans is more complex than most people perceive. This diagram gives an illustration of why America suffers a trade deficit (which really isn’t a “subsidy”), and why it is prudent for Trump to encourage more reliance on domestic production overall, but preferably via a longterm plan:

While the U.S. has enough oil to be able to refuse Canadian oil, the crude oil that it gets from Canada is different from what America produces domestically. It follows that refineries in the US, especially in the midwest and around the Gulf Coast, are set up to process Canadian crude. Even if the U.S. energy sector could ramp up production, it wouldn’t solve the problem for those refineries. According to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers,“there is no easy, fit-for-purpose replacement for this crude oil.” Many American refineries were built “prior to the US shale boom and are suited for heavier, high-sulfur crudes that typically come from foreign sources,” especially Canada. US refineries simply aren’t built to take the type of oil that’s produced in the U.S., and it would take years, and maybe even decades to achieve.

According to the C.D. Howe Institute:

If President Trump’s view that the US does not need Canadian oil prevails, then the US will have to find another source of feedstock for its refineries.

Venezuela and Saudi Arabia export heavy crude, but not enough to make up for Canada’s supply. This would also require major pipeline reconfiguration because pipelines to refineries in the north and Midwest do not flow north.

A second possibility is to replace Canadian heavy crude with lighter Permian crude. This will require significant new capital investment that will take time to implement. In addition, using Permian crude domestically instead of exporting it will eliminate the $19 billion per year benefit.

Venezuela has inched its way to becoming a virtual proxy of Iran. As for Saudi Arabia,  it isn’t wise to depend on the Saudis and other Sharia states for oil.

Canada also isn’t Mexico, which invaded the U.S. with an inundation of illegal migrants, many contributing to heightened security threats; nor is Canada a threat like China, which is infiltrating the continent. Canada is a safe country for trade and ideal for partnership, and a free trade agreement reflected that.

Fox News described the immediate effects of the US-Canada trade war:


Rand Paul wrote:

With an increase in oil and gas prices comes an increase in produce prices. Although tariffs do have their place, serving as a tool to encourage domestic industrialization, they also block some or all foreign competition, so their application must be carefully balanced. American history is full of instances in which tariffs became problematic, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 that replaced the Tariff Act. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act signaled U.S. isolationism on the world stage and contributed to a loss of confidence on Wall Street. It destabilized the world economy as it reduced global trade. For America, imports dropped as intended, but too much, so the Great Depression was deepened for everyone involved. Many say the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act contributed to World War II.

J.P. Morgan’s CEO Thomas Lamont stated he “almost went down on [his] knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley–Smoot tariff”.

“Canada, Mexico, and Spain,” among others “started retaliating with huge tariffs on U.S. goods. American farmers were hit hard because exports to Canada were a major part of the American farmers.” Today, in a deja vu, American farmers will be adversely affected by Canada’s potash production tariffs.

In came Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933. He signed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, which reduced tariff levels and promoted trade and cooperation with foreign governments. Fast forward to the current Democrats: they signed away America’s birthright and nearly destroyed America as a leader on the world stage. Trump is a necessary force against the worst encroachments on America’s sovereignty and global status. Canada also suffered under the Liberals.

Amid the current crisis, we can only hope that a united continent can be salvaged from this. As Ipsos has found, a Conservative government is better trusted to work with Trump. Negotiations can turn this war around as our continent faces common enemies. The ever watching Red-Green-axis and the jihadists are constantly waiting for opportune moments.

In the meantime, Trudeau needs to end his proroguing of parliament, so that the US-Canada crisis can be dealt with adequately.

Comments

  1. What is not being reported is that Canadian Companies are going to move to the United States.

    This is from the Canadian publication, The Globe and Mail;

    Almost half of Canadian businesses plan to shift more investments and operations to the U.S. to mitigate potential tariffs and maintain market access, according to a report released on Wednesday by accounting firm KPMG. Almost two-thirds of Canadian businesses reported making more shipments to the U.S. ahead of President Donald Trump’s inauguration last week.

    The Bottom line is that Canadian companies do more business in the US than in Canada. Plus, it is cheaper to operate in the United States.

  2. I am a Canadian who has been a Trump supporter for years. I was ecstatic when he won. Most people in Canada are very anti-Justin now and were looking forward to replacing him with a conservative government. I was not expecting this. More fetanyl crosses into the US every day than crosses in a year from Canada. This will be devastating for our economy. I had always thought we were America’s best friend. This is a disaster

  3. The USA can easily win the tariff war, but Canada’s Leftists are willing to bankrupt their country to help gain more power and control with the help of Islam’s Muslims. Plus, Canada has brought in Muslim migrants, a curse to Canada. Islam is a MUSLIM TERRORIST ORGANIZATION against Non-Muslims and NOT A PEACEFUL RELIGION UNDER WESTERN LAWS(Quran 2:216; 4:95; 8:12,39,74; 9:5,29,41,49, 21:921; 88,111,123;21:92; 49:15 and more). More specifically, Islam is a Muslim Terrorist Ideology and Criminal Enterprise of continuous war, discrimination, segregation, supremacy, genocide, polygamy, propaganda, deceit, hatred, incitement, sedition, rape, terrorism, and violence against all Non-Muslims as taught in the Quran. Fundamentally, Islam funds, teaches, and promotes a Terrorist Criminal Organization with Muslims as Terrorists for Allah. The FRUIT of Islam is incessant WAR, terrorism, discrimination, and violence against all Non-Muslims; this FACT must be taught and broadcast to the general public to prohibit Islam, its Mosques, and its Schools. Also, Islam is an Antichrist System terrorizing Israel, Christians, and Non-Muslims. Plus, there is NO EQUALITY UNDER THE LAW in Islam or in Islamic Law(Quran 98:6-7; 9:29 and more). In Sahih Bukhari(V6,B60,N80), Abu Huraira narrates, “‘You(Muslims) are the best of peoples ever raised for mankind.’ means, the best of peoples for the people, as you bring them[Non-Muslims] with chains on their necks till they embrace Islam[see Quran 3:110].” See also Quran 3:22,151; 69:30-32; 98:6.

    Non-Muslims CANNOT have peace with Islam and its Muslims because Islam and its murderous god, Allah, demand a continuous, Muslim war against unbelievers where Non-Muslims are CRIMINALS under Islam when Allah in Qur’an 8:39 says, “And engage in war with them[Non-Muslims] until there will not be sedition and the religion will be completely to Allah…” HENCE, NON-MUSLIMS MUST MAKE ISLAM, ITS MOSQUES, ITS SCHOOLS, ITS ORGANIZATIONS, ETC. ILLEGAL UNDER THE LAW. Similarly, Islam and its many Organizations must be identified and publicly declared to be MUSLIM TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS for their funding, teaching, and support of terrorism, violence, and discrimination against Non-Muslims(eg. Quran 9:5,29,111 and more).

    Western Muslims seek to ensure Islam’s legitimacy against Non-Muslim societies, to impose Islamic Law in Western Legal Systems, and to advance Islam’s totalitarian goals. Consequently, Islam promotes a limitless, terroristic, Muslim war against unbelievers when Allah in Qur’an 49:15 says, “Surely the believers are only those who believed in Allah and his messenger. They do not doubt, and they performed JIHAD with THEIR MONEY AND THEIR LIVES for the sake of Allah. Those are the truthful.”

    • This “tariff war” will have no winners. It’s a no-win and totally unnecessary.
      What is Trump actually trying to achieve by it?

      • Trump is winning. Panama is going to kick out the Chinese, Venezuela will take back their criminals, so will Columbia. Mexico is sending 10,000 Army troops to the Southern border. Trump will rapidly make a deal with Canada we share so much culturally not to make a one..

      • Well, he’s achieved it today, which is why the tariffs have been postponed. Canada has finally agreed to crack down on fentanyl, tighten the border, establish a joint interdiction force against drugs w/ the US, & others. Trudeau could have done this in November, and saved himself a whole lot of embarrassment including those memes about him being the governor of our 51st state, had he done all this then, when Trump was asking nicely. Instead, he came grovelling and whining about what would happen to Canada’s economy were these tariffs to be imposed, and then doing nothing about it. Finally, enough people in his government have seen sense to do what’s being asked, which isn’t unreasonable

        • When did Trump ever ask nicely? Has he ever been accused of asking nicely?
          Motto: “Do exactly what I want or else”.
          So little fentanyl moves from Canada to the US it would be virtually impossible to locate and stop it.
          Maybe they’ll be able to attack the illegal gun trade from the US to Canada at the same time — a much more serious problem. Or even the flow of illegal migrants from the US to Canada.
          So trying to stop fentanyl trafficking may actually yield a positive result.

    • So what do you suggest ,?WE had tariffs in the past ,it is a tool to get something .Should we forever pay to protect countries from foreign invaders forever all at our expense? Should we forever have a trade imbalance ? Should we forever be energy depended on foreign energy sources? What can bring foreign leaders to the table to hammer out deals and compromise, ,strongly worded letters ,war, trade embargos ,what?? What is your answer, what did the past administration do in 4 years of mumbling and bumbling around the world to make living in America better? Bring in 12 million illegals? Have no real effort for energy policy to drive energy prices down? It is insane try a different approach ,why was Trump elected to do?

      • Just what is it Trump is trying to get? This has nothing to do with trade imbalances between the US and Canada. If we remove the oil trade (oil which the US must get somewhere) the US has a huge trade surplus with Canada. It has been an excellent arrangement all around. The US buys Canadian oil because it has to and not as some sort of “subsidy” or gift to Canada.
        How to hammer out a deal? Is Trump trying to do that or simply impose his will? i.e. dictate a deal. Canada and the US have been able to “hammer out” fair trade deals in the past without imposing huge tariffs to try to force (blackmail) each other.
        The US negotiated the NAFTA agreements without anyone putting a gun to anyone’s head. That deal was amended under Trump in his last Presidency without embargoes, tariffs or war. He is simply not prepared to live by his agreements. Ergo, the US cannot be trusted either to keep to its agreements or to bargain in good faith. Guaranteed to backfire big time.

        • A lot changed b/w then and now. Even then, there was an issue, w/ Canada putting tariffs and other blocks on Wisconsin dairy products entering the country. How was that even allowed under the USMCA?

          Also, if the US had a trade surplus w/ Canada, we’d not be imposing it. When Justin visited Mar-a-lago in December and was told that Canada has a $100 billion trade surplus, he could have pointed out what you said, had that been factual. Instead, he whined that if Trump went ahead w/ the tariffs, the Canadian economy would be wrecked, and that’s when the jabs about the 51st state started.

          It was Joe Biden’s shutting down the Keystone pipeline that also hurt Canada, yet he didn’t even have the courtesy of informing Trudeau – who was ideologically more in his corner than in Trump’s – before the fact. So if Canada wants to shut down its oil exports to the US, go ahead! You could still sell to Europe, and make them less dependent on Russian energy. Of course, your ruling Mandarins would first have to get off their climate change hobbyhorse

          Anyway, Trump sues tariffs for reasons other than trade: it’s more humane than going to war. As I pointed out in my other response below, there have been almost twice the number of potential terrorists coming in from Canada than from Mexico. All Comrade Justin needed to do was shut down that border and stop any of his new voters guest visitors from crossing it, and sticking to Canada, and he’d have been fine w/ Trump at least. Instead, he acted like Canada is entitled to both an open border w/ the US for unvetted visitors, as well as free trade, and then acted up when he was told no

          So will you guys be holding your elections early? Even Poilievre, despite his shortcomings, will save you a lot of embarrassment

        • infidel.
          For starts I’m no supporter of Trudeau.
          Secondly, the US imports +/- 4 million barrels of oil a day from Canada — you can do the math. Otherwise the US has a huge trade surplus with Canada. I’m sure Trump knows that but it interferes with his narrative.
          Things may have changed between Trump’s 1st and 2nd terms so re-enter negotiations but that’s not Trump’s way.
          The Wisconsin dairy dispute was dealt with under a process agreed to under NAFTA. Things don’t always go the way you want.
          There are more illegal migrants coming into Canada from the US than the other way around. We can expect that to increase rapidly as Trump chases them out of the US. Approximately 1% of undocumented migrants to the US come through Canada.

        • Rarely

          That’s not what has been happening. As I pointed out in my post below, there have been more potential terrorist encounters from Canada than from Mexico. That only happens when the general populations that are sneaking in illegally are as large as well. Tossing statistics does nothing about the fact that Canada has a serious problem as a vector for both Fentanyl and terrorists coming in

          Also, as I pointed out, tariffs aren’t just about trade, even if Canada did have the deficit that you claim you have. Also, you keep saying NAFTA, but that deal was deprecated in favor of the USMCA, which had more safeguards in it such as what the minimum Mexican workers could be paid

          Finally, as far as the deportations go, Trump is not going to dump them on Canada. He’s returning them to their home countries, and we saw what happened when even a country as hostile as Colombia refused to take them in. Secondly, if anyone refuses, Gitmo has been reopened for precisely that purpose, and will be holding upto 30,000 detainees, while they are processed for deportation. Yeah, the US has asked some countries like Bahamas whether they’d be willing to hold or take some, but Canada is not on that list. Every dirtbag that Canada has is courtesy Trudeau, who seems to have a bizarre love for muslim and Sikh terrorists

          Hopefully a future Poilievre government will have the sense to do the same sort of mass deportations that the US is currently executing. Once that happens, relations w/ countries like the US and India will automatically improve

        • Infidel.
          I’m not saying they will be deported to Canada but rather many will flee to Canada — it has been going on for years but in small numbers.
          Also, I detest Trudeau’s immigration policy as well and he has let in far too many undesirables. Did some go to the US? Perhaps. I can assure you that I want that fixed more than you do.

    • Do you have any idea of what compelling import do we get from you guys? Other than gasoline?

      On the latter, once the fracking within the US resumes and the Keystone and other pipelines are completed, that will no longer be an issue. You could export your oil to India, who you’ve managed to piss off in every other way and who won’t buy your other imports. Or maybe China, except that in their case, it’s a buyer’s market, since they get oil from everybody – Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, the Gulf…. and therefore would have more leverage on you than you’d have on them

      Essentially, your prime minister is a cretin. All he had to do, since he’s on his way out and has nothing to gain or lose politically, was to totally end Canada’s open border policy w/ the rest of the world, or seal the border w/ US, so that fentanyl and terrorists don’t go through. I saw a report today that showed that there have been some 1,216 migrants w/ suspected terror ties encountered on the Canadian border during the Biden Administration, as opposed to 687 on the Mexican border. If your leadership recognized how serious this was, they would have taken steps to address it, as opposed to telling y’all to not vacation in Florida during summer (actually, Floridians go north during summer, not the other way around)

      Anyway, as I write this, Mexico has already folded, and their tariffs are off. This follows Colombia and Panama over the last week. I’m guessing that the valiant Canada will succeed where those 3 Latin American countries failed – we’ll see!

      • Countries may “fold” under Trump’s pressure — the list of countries Trump is displeased with grows by leaps and bounds, and as Trump breaks more and more trade agreements and treaties the US’s credibility diminishes accordingly. In the medium-long term the US will suffer most.

        • Rarely,

          Pres. Trump is trying to look at existing “trade agreements and treaties” with a fresh set of eyes, objectively trying to figure out what helps / hurts the United States under an America First policy…

        • James Lincoln
          Perhaps some trade arrangements should be reviewed but Trump is certainly going about it in the wrong way. He’s only making more enemies for the US. This heavy handedness will only serve to hurt the US in the medium-long term as the World discovers that the US cannot be relied upon to live up to its agreements.
          Attacking the US’s closest friend and ally by starting a trade war (especially with zero justification) was not a very clever move. It sends the World a clear message — one the US doesn’t want the World to get.

  5. Up until about 1900, the Federal government was financed by tariffs. If you go back in history, this is also how the Royal governments were paid for in the UK up until the late 17th Century. Trump is now using the economic power of the United States to blackmail countries.

    I am very happy to hear President Trump is going after South Africa. The government is in the process of confiscating, without payment, all of the farmland that Afrikaners have farmed for over 200 years. They are being persecuted by the government. There are about 2.5 million Afrikaners.
    They are leaving South Africa many of them are going to Argentina.

    As for Greenland, there are 57,000 Greenlanders. MSM is not representing what Greenlanders are thinking. They do not want a lower standard of living, But they do want independence from Denmark. Greenland has always had a close relationship with the United States because of the thousands of US servicemen that have been stationed there. One thing I have been told by US Servicemen is if they are unmarried, they are a prime target for the local young ladies, They are type of ladies that you would bring home an introduce to your own parents. They don’t have a lot of local choices. It is only second to Italy in that department.

    What I think is going to happen in Greenland in the short term is there will be expanded basing of the US Navy, Air Force, and Space Force in the country.

    • From what I have read/seen, Denmark would be happy to let go of Greenland, but the latter, while it wants independence, doesn’t wanna lose the annual subsidies it gets from Denmark. That’s something we need to factor in as well: will we have to keep subsidizing those 57,000 people of Greenland the way Denmark is doing, and to what extent? Also, they have their own language, not English native, so is that something we want? It’s one of the reasons we haven’t given Puerto Rico statehood

      Somehow, Danes will have to lose their appetite to keep subsidizing Greenland, which doesn’t do much, and then unilaterally let go of Greenland. Then we can decide whether an independent Greenland will have a status like Guam, or be a full-blown state

      • Infidel,

        Greenland has always been on my “short list” for a summer vacation.

        And United Airlines will be starting a direct flight from Newark to NUUK this June.

        • Perhaps Denmark prefers to develop Greenland’s minerals itself. Too big to do on their own so they might find themselves in partnership with Saudi Arabia or (gasp) China. They may not be willing to enter an agreement with the US knowing how the US views agreements.
          If they did decide to sell Greenland they’d certainly ask for bids. Enter Saudi Arabia and China again.
          Would the US go to nuclear war over Greenland?

      • Infidel.
        Denmark has no intention to let Greenland go or to sell it. Trump wants it for its mineral reserves. If the US can exploit them so can Denmark.
        BTW why hasn’t the US made PR a state? It can have nothing to do with language since the PRs speak very good Spanish like so many US citizens.

  6. Bracing for US-Canada trade war; Trudeau and Canada’s official opposition leader weigh in
    ……………………………

    I hope this doesn’t get too stupid. We are essentially alies; this is really pointless.

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