Trump Said to Warn Israel Not to Remain in Southern Lebanon Beyond 60-Day Ceasefire

In southern Lebanon, a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is now in force. Both sides made certain solemn commitments. The Israelis said that they would remove their troops from Lebanon within 60 days, provided that Hezbollah honored its pledge to pull its own troops and weapons out of southern Lebanon and to redeploy them north of the Litani River. The ceasefire began on November 27, and already there have been violations by Hezbollah, which has been caught by the Israelis moving troops not out of, but rather, into different positions within southern Lebanon. It has also been found smuggling in more weapons from Syria and also trying to place rockets still in southern Lebanon into new hiding places, thereby violating its promise to remove all weapons from the area. Israel naturally responded by tank fire on suspects carrying weapons in. a car, and on Hezbollah military structures near the border with Israel. There is continued worry in Israel about continued violations by Hezbollah, and about the very slow pace of the Lebanese Army in moving into southern Lebanon. As a consequence, the Israelis have said that they may be compelled to remain in southern Lebanon beyond when the ceasefire is due to end (January 27) if they are convinced that the Lebanese National Army has not exerted full control over Hezbollah operatives and made sure they have been entirely removed, along with their weapons, north of the Litani River. Much will depend on whether the Lebanese Army, bolstered by the appointment of a vehemently anti-Hezbollah president, Joseph Aoun, and provided with more than $100 million in American funds that were originally meant for Egypt ($95 million) and Israel ($7.5 million), that will allow it to pay for more soldiers and more weapons, and allow it to act more forcefully to compel Hezbollah to move all of its men and weapons north of the Litani.

Having announced its attention to remain, if it deems it necessary, in southern Lebanon beyond the 60 days of the ceasefire, the IDF must have been unpleasantly surprised to learn from Trump’s men that he has “warned” Israelis about letting the “ceasefire agreement collapse.” It’s an unfair and bizarre charge. The IDF had been scrupulously fulfilling its own withdrawal commitments, but has now slowed down it movement out of Lebanon — and indeed has attacked several Hezbollah operatives in response to the terror group’s repeated violations of the ceasefire. More on Trump’s ill-considered “warning” to Israel about his not wanting “the ceasefire agreement to collapse” can be found here: “Crisis between Israel, US? Trump warns against collapse of Lebanon ceasefire – exclusive,” by Amichai Stein, Jerusalem Post, January 16, 2025:

Senior Israeli officials have indicated their intention to remain in southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day ceasefire, due to the slow deployment of the Lebanese army, raising concerns in Washington, The Jerusalem Post learned on Thursday.

Sources close to US President-elect Donald Trump have reportedly conveyed a warning to Israeli officials: “We don’t want the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to collapse.”…

Nor does Israel want “the ceasefire agreement…to collapse.” But what should the IDF do when it discovers that Hezbollah is violating its commitments under the ceasefire, by moving weapons to new hiding places in southern Lebanon, or even smuggling in new weapons south of the Litani River, or has been placing its operatives in new hideouts, in villages where they had not been placed before? The Lebanese National Army is still outgunned by Hezbollah, and has been proceeding slowly in its attempts to push Hezbollah’s forces north of the Litani. Two hopeful signs: first, the Biden administration has provided an immediate infusion of $102.5 million to strengthen the LNA; second, the new president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, is an avowed enemy of Hezbollah, unlike his predecessor Michel Aoun, a Christian who always supported Hezbollah. President Aoun is well aware that the IDF has severely degraded Hezbollah’s military strength, having destroyed at least 80% of the vast arsenal — some 150,000 rockets and missiles — that it had when it attacked Israel. But it will take a while to for the LNF to feel it is strong enough even to take on a weakened Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and enforce the ceasefire. The more the LNF does to keep Hezbollah on the straight and narrow, the less that the IDF will have to do.

The IDF does not deserve any criticism from the Trump administration over its commitment to the ceasefire with Hezbollah. The only reason the IDF may be compelled to remain longer than the original 60 days in southern Lebanon is to ensure that Hezbollah, which is trying to hide both men and weapons, does in fact pull out of southern Lebanon to positions north of the Litani River. The IDF will be delighted when the LNF has been strengthened enough to fully take control. Embattled Israel has several other fronts to worry about right now — Syria, with its new jihadist government, the Houthis who are continuing to lob missiles at Israel, and of course Iran, with its headlong rush to acquire nuclear weapons that is the greatest threat to the Jewish state’s existence.

Instead of warning Israel on the need to remove its troops at the end of 60 days, no matter what, the Americans should show that they understand the problem is not Israel, but Hezbollah, which is trying in every deceptive way it can to keep both some fighters and weapons south of the Litani. In such circumstances, it would be madness for Israel to pull all of its own forces back inside Israel. Trump should not be “warning” Israel, but making clear that he understands and sympathizes with Israel’s attempt to make sure that the withdrawal from south Lebanon will not be unilateral.

He might deliver — or have Secretary of State Marco Rubio deliver, a statement like this:

“When Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire agreement on November 27, it was assumed that both sides would scrupulously adhere to the requirement that they both pull their forces from the area between the Litani River and the Israel-Lebanese border. Unfortunately, there have been several incidents in which Hezbollah was caught by the IDF both smuggling more weapons into southern Lebanon, to replace those it was ostentatiously removing, and moving weapons already in the south from one hideout to another. Hezbollah operatives have also been detected moving themselves to new positions in southern Lebanon. Because of this, the IDF understandably will find itself forced to remain in southern Lebanon beyond the sixty days originally contemplated, and will stay unless, and until, Hezbollah stops trying to violate its commitments under the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah must stop playing games. Otherwise, as I have said before, all hell will break loose.

There. That’s more like it.