Many are convinced that the deal Israel has agreed to with Hamas is a “disaster” for the Jewish state. But others have been more hopeful in their judgments. Daniel Pomerantz weighs the good and the bad here: “The Bright and Dark Sides of the Hostage Deal,” by Daniel Pomerantz, Algemeiner, January 16, 2025:
Israeli headlines were bursting on Wednesday night with the dramatic news of a deal to bring home the remaining hostages and end the war in Gaza.
Over the course of six weeks Hamas will gradually release the “first phase” of hostages: 33 women, children, and elderly. Israeli intelligence believes that most are alive, but some will be returned as corpses. Yet phase two, during which Israeli men would be released, has not even been fully negotiated yet, and there is a disturbing possibility that it will never be….
Even more concerning is that after phase one, Israel will have given up much of its leverage and military momentum. If the deal fails after that point, the children of the Hatikva families might be effectively abandoned in Gaza, permanently. Over the past 24 hours the Hatikva families have been mostly ignored by Israeli media, and they describe the entire situation as a “betrayal.”
Israel is preparing to release approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre. The IDF will leave the “Netzarim corridor” which separates northern and southern Gaza, allowing Palestinians (and presumably also Hamas) to return to northern Gaza. Most of the attacks on Oct. 7, 2023 initiated from northern Gaza, making this area especially sensitive from a security perspective. Israel will also reportedly reduce (though not entirely end) its presence in the “Philadelphi corridor,” which connects Gaza to Egypt, and has long been a source of Iranian resupply to Hamas.
Finally, if we do reach beyond the first and second phases of this deal, Israel will announce a permanent ceasefire and Gaza will be subject to a flood of aid and reconstruction. Reconstruction is expected to be supervised by Qatar (one of Hamas’s main sponsors), Egypt (which is lately rumored to be preparing to open military hostilities against Israel), and the United Nations (which has long supported Hamas’s terror activities through its UNRWA organization).
Crowds took to the streets in Gaza to celebrate the news of a ceasefire, chanting, “We are the people of Muhammad Deif” (one of the architects of the Oct. 7 massacre). And just in case there was any doubt about the prevailing sentiment in the Arab world, the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was recently declared the Arab world’s “Person of the Year” by Egypt’s Hurriyat news network, with 85 percent of the wide-ranging vote.
All that is cause for despair. Why did Israel agree to such a long ceasefire, knowing how hard it will then be politically — with its military momentum gone — to restart hostilities if Hamas violates the agreement? Why has it agreed to even a partial pullback from the Philadelphi Corridor, when it knows Hamas will immediately start again to smuggle weapons from Egypt into Gaza? Why has it agreed to free not just prisoners, but those who were convicted of terrorist murders, including some who took part in the October 7 atrocities?
There is, however, cause for hope.
Israeli Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fox claimed Tuesday evening that the current deal “is the same deal as May 27” which Hamas had rejected. Hamas has long insisted that any deal begin with an immediate and permanent end to the war, immediate and complete IDF withdrawal from the entirety of Gaza, and a significant role for Hamas in post-war Gaza, along with binding international guarantees of the same.
In the latest deal, Hamas has achieved none of those goals, and there’s a reason why. Since Hamas rejected a similar deal in May, the IDF has defeated and dismantled the last of Hamas’s 24 formal battalions, it’s leadership, (including Oct. 7 architect Sinwar) has been mostly killed, Hezbollah has been reduced to a shadow of its former self in Lebanon, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has fallen, Iran has been militarily humiliated, and the United States has elected a new president, Donald Trump, whose incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said just this week, “Gaza has to be fully demilitarized, Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it cannot reconstitute … Israel has every right to fully protect itself, [and] all of those objectives are still very much in place.” This is a significant departure from the rhetoric of the prior US administration, giving Israelis hope of maintaining its military leverage through phase two and beyond.
There are other benefits to this deal: thousands of IDF reservists desperately need to return to their families and careers, and the IDF needs to redeploy its readiness to face new and emerging challenges (including a rapidly changing Syria and the possibility of a direct confrontation with Iran). Most importantly, Israelis have not been able to rest knowing that one of the principal goals of the war, the return of the hostages, had yet to be accomplished even after more than 400 days….
While the IDF has destroyed more than 80% of the Syrian military arsenal, it still needs to put more resources into guarding the border, given that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group that is now in charge in Damascus is showing signs — despite soothing assurances to the West from its de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa — of being a jihadist regime. The IDF has already taken over the Syrian part of the Golan Heights; an IDF outpost is now on top of Mount Hermon. It is clear that the Israelis are putting more men and weapons on the border with Syria, and with the ceasefire will now be able to move troops from Gaza to the Golan. There is a threat to Israel not just from Syrian jihadists, but from the Turkish army, for Erdogan has demanded that the IDF leave all Syrian territory at once. More troops may also be needed to guard the country from Iranian retaliation should Israel decide it can’t afford to wait any longer but must attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Will Hamas scrupulously comply with its commitments under the first phase of the deal? Will the rest of the hostages — how many are still alive? — all be returned during the second phase? Will the terrorist murderers among the 1000 prisoners Israel releases be allowed to remain in Gaza, or will they be sent elsewhere, and if so, to where? How can Israel be assured that Hamas will not continue to rule in Gaza once the IDF has pulled back? Will the rich Arab states of the Gulf demand, as a condition of putting tens of billions into the rebuilding of the Strip — they are the only ones financially capable of doing it — that Hamas give up its role in the government in favor of technocrats chosen by those states?
So much remains up in the air. So many questions left for study and discussion.
Tony says
The world never seems to learn from the past. You have to conquer the Muslims. Then, you must ban and make illegal: Islam, its Mosques and its Schools for their terrorism and their discrimination under the law. Basically, Islam is a MUSLIM TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. More specifically, Islam is a Muslim Terrorist Ideology and Criminal Organization of discrimination, segregation, supremacy, genocide, polygamy, deceit, hatred, incitement, sedition, rape, terrorism, and violence against all Non-Muslims as taught in the Quran. Fundamentally, Islam is a Terrorist Criminal Enterprise. The FRUIT of Islam is WAR, terrorism, discrimination, and violence against all Non-Muslims; this FACT must be taught and broadcast to the general public to prohibit Islam, its Mosques, and its Schools. Furthermore, there is NO EQUALITY UNDER THE LAW in Islam or in Islamic Law.
Non-Muslims CANNOT have peace with Islam and its Muslims because Islam and its murderous god, Allah, demand a continuous, Muslim war against unbelievers where Non-Muslims are CRIMINALS under Islam as Allah in Qur’an 8:39 says, “And engage in war with them[Non-Muslims] until there will not be sedition and the religion will be completely to Allah…” HENCE, NON-MUSLIMS MUST MAKE ISLAM, ITS MOSQUES, ITS SCHOOLS, ITS ORGANIZATIONS, ETC. ILLEGAL UNDER THE LAW. Similarly, Islam and its many Organizations must be identified and declared to be a MUSLIM TERRORIST ORGANIZATION for their funding, teaching, and support of terrorism, violence, and discrimination against Non-Muslims.
Islam does NOT MEAN submission, only SURRENDER. Allah in Islam demands SURRENDER which means ‘to Surrender, whether voluntarily or not, by becoming a Muslim’ while Submission, ‘to Submit’, is a voluntary act to follow the authority or control of another. Allah in Quran 49:14 says, “’The Bedouins said, ‘We believed.’ Say,’You did not believe. But say, ‘We surrender (became Muslim as a result of fear).’ And the faith has not entered your hearts. And if you obey Allah and his messenger, he will not decrease anything from your works. Surely Allah is forgiving, merciful.’” Islam does NOT offer love and peace to anyone who is NOT A MUSLIM. Allah in Quran 48:29 says, “Muhammad is Allah’s Messenger, and those who are with him are severe against the infidels but full of tenderness among themselves…”
Islam promotes a terroristic, Muslim war against unbelievers when Allah in Qur’an 49:15 says, “Surely the believers are only those who believed in Allah and his messenger. They do not doubt, and they performed JIHAD with THEIR MONEY AND THEIR LIVES for the sake of Allah. Those are the truthful.”
Allah promises Heavenly Paradise to Muslims for acts of Muslim killing in a terrorist war when Quran 9:111 says, “Surely Allah has purchased from the believers[Muslims] their souls and their money so that they may have the garden[Heavenly Paradise]. They engage in war for the sake of Allah, so they kill and are killed…”
Zeenah says
It looks to Me that HamASS is only trying to buy a little time in order to plan a final onslaught upon Israel.
I sure hope I’m wrong about that!
somehistory says
“The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.”
Some of the things are contrary to what Mr. Netanyahu said in his speech. Time will tell how things turn out.
Releasing those guilty of Oct 7 seems to be a terrible aspect. Like releasing a garrison of ted bundys, john wayne gaceys or jefferey dahmers along with a battalion of Jack the Rippers.
Even if they go to some mozlum country, what prevents them from traveling back to Gaza at some point?
Cynthia says
They will go back to Gaza to commit more atrocities with Hamas like Sinwar when he was released.
In the meantime 3 hostages each week traded for 100 terrorists. The terrorists and Gazan “civilians” have crowded their van with weapons and taunting to torture their last minutes with fear.
We are all waiting with anxiety and trepidation for the release of the first 3 and those thereafter. May the live ones be able to recover and heal. May the dead be a blessed memory to their families and nation.
somehistory says
The news is that hamas has released 3 ‘hostages.’ evidently, one of these was taken hostage in 2014
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomes the return of the body of IDF soldier Oron Shaul, who was killed in 2014 in Gaza and his body held by Hamas ever since.
“I embrace the dear Shaul family, and congratulate the Shin Bet and IDF forces for their resourcefulness and courage,” Netanyahu says in a statement.”
this is person was not counted as part of the hostages taken last year….but he has been “used.” Even in death.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/with-return-of-oron-shaul-s-body-from-gaza-pm-vows-to-also-bring-back-hadar-goldin/ar-AA1xrV1L?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=81a94b42dab048719587f12d9a35842b&ei=42
Jack Reynolds says
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TEHRAN GO B-O-O-O-O-M REAL SOON.
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ElderlyZionist says
If Egypt was to attack Israel, it would create an opportunity for Israel to expel Gaza’s Arabs I to Egypt.