The Iranian Regime and the Loss of Syria

Syria was until a month ago a loyal and useful ally of the Islamic Republic. It was the conduit for weapons that went from Iran through Syria to then be delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the sudden overthrow of Assad, and the takeover of the country by Sunni Muslims who despise Shi’a Iran and will never forgive the Islamic Republic for its support for Assad, has left the Iranian rulers confused and alarmed. More on their distress can be found here: “Khamenei’s empty promises: Iran’s Syria ambitions stagger under domestic unrest, expert says,” by Maya Cohen, Jerusalem Post, January 1, 2025:

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly pledged to reclaim control in Syria, but issues such as internal fragility and a lack of options and resources cast doubt on his distant promises, Benny Sabati, a researcher with the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Maariv on Wednesday.

How could Shi’a Iran possibly “reclaim control” in Syria when the Sunnis, who constitute more than 85% of the Syrian population, will never forgive Shia Iran’s support for the mass-murdering Assad?

“[Khamenei] simply thinks according to different time frames than we do,” Sabati said. “In the long term, Iran hopes that Syria will return to into its hands.”

What outsiders might dismiss as hollow rhetoric serves for Iranians as “a distant promise that will eventually come to fruition,” the researcher explained. “Though when [that promise may manifest] is hard to say.”

In a Wednesday X/Twitter statement, Khamenei vowed that the “US and Zionist regime, who have invaded the land of the Syrian people, will one day be forced to retreat in the face of the power of the devout Syrian youth without a doubt. This will happen.”

Neither the US nor the “Zionist regime” invaded Syria; Assad fell because the Syrians themselves rose up and, headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, overthrew his rule. Only after he had fled to Moscow did the IDF take over the Syrian side of the Golan; that hardly constitutes an “invasion” of Syria.

The “devout Syrian youth” are overwhelmingly Sunni, and will never ally themselves with Shi’a Iran. The country’s infrastructure is in ruins. 90% of its military assets have been destroyed by the IDF. Instead of opposing the Americans, the new leaders in Syria ae hoping to ingratiate themselves with Washington, in the hope of obtaining help in rebuilding their country.

Khamenei continued:

“Today, the US is continuously building bases in Syria. These bases will undoubtedly be trampled under the feet of the Syrian youth.” the Iranian supreme leader promised in another statement. In a third post, Khamenei swore that the “US and Zionist regime cannot stay in #Syria. Syria belongs to the Syrian people.”…

This is fantasy on Khamenei’s part. There are no American bases being built in Syria; nor will there be. Nor do the “Zionists” have any intention of “staying in Syria.” The Israelis have said their presence on the Syrian side of the Golan will be “limited and temporary.” It will last only until Jerusalem has been convinced that the regime in Damascus is not controlled by jihadists.

There is an economic crisis in Iran. Forty percent of the Iranian people live below the absolute poverty line. The supply of electricity is erratic, with frequent interruptions. So is the supply of clean water. Despite Iran’s massive gas reserves, mismanagement has led to a lack of spending on energy infrastructure, and Iran now has a deficit in natural gas production that amounts to 350 million cubic meters a day. Iranians have taken instead to burning mazut, a heavy oil that has caused a spike in pollution in Iranian cities.

Iran has spent between thirty and fifty billion dollars propping up the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war; money now seen to have been spent in vain. The Iranians are aware that while they live in poverty, their leaders have spent tens of billions of dollars not just in Syria, but also on weapons for Hezbollah in Lebanon, for Hamas in Gaza, and for the Houthis in Yemen. All those billions, too, have gone up in smoke, thanks to the IDF. Iranian protesters have in the past shouted “No to Palestine! No to Lebanon! My life for Iran!”

Iran lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988. Iranians do not want their young men sent to fight for the “Palestinians.” Instead, the regime supplies weapons and money to its proxies — Hamas, the Houthis, and especially, Hezbollah. But all three either have been or are being crushed by the IDF. Here, too, Iran has spent tens of billions of dollars in a vain attempt to destroy the “Zionist entity,” while ever more Iranians sink into poverty.

Now that Iran can no longer send weapons through Syria to Hezbollah, the regime has been stymied in its efforts to help its proxies. Perhaps it will be able to deliver some weapons by ship to the Houthis, but it’s a long and perilous voyage from Bandar Abbas to Hodeidah, Yemen’s main port, that has already been bombed twice by the Israelis, making it difficult to take delivery of such weapons.

The Islamic Republic is now at its lowest point, both economically and militarily, since the mullahs came to power in 1979. Stripped of all of its proxies, on which it has spent more than fifty billion dollars, the regime is fearful of a popular uprising by the more than thirty million Iranians who now live in poverty, and are enraged with the leaders’ priorities. What can Khamenei do, save promise that “in the future,” Syria will return to the Iranian fold? It never will. The dominoes are falling, with the defeat of Hezbollah by the IDF helping to lead to the fall of Assad, and the fall of Assad now having disturbing repercussions for the rulers in Tehran, who have brought their country to rack and ruin. How long do you give the Iranian regime? Could it survive, do you think, a successful Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities, on which it has spent tens of billions of dollars? The colossal waste of still more resources laid bare, the humiliation of the regime, the inability to respond to such an attack, surely will lead to widespread protests, and those protests lead to what one hopes will be at long last an end to the mullahcracy.