Israel and Its Expanded Options in Iran

In several raids on Iran, the Israeli Air Force has destroyed both that country’s anti-aircraft defense system and its ballistic missile fuel plant. This has left Iran’s nuclear facilities, including those built underground at Natanz and Fordow, essentially defenseless should the Israelis decide to strike. And now we know that the Israelis have another way, aside from waves of bombers, to destroy those facilities. It could stage a commando raid like that which allowed Israel to seize Iran’s entire nuclear archive from a warehouse in central Tehran and bringing it back to Israel, or like what happened last September, when a commando raid destroyed an Iranian missile plant inside Syria. Now Iran must worry about more such raids directed at Iran’s nuclear facilities. More on Iran’s loss of its anti-aircraft defense systems, and on Israel’s expanded options for destroying Iran’s nuclear program, can be found here: “Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program in 2025 could transform Middle East – analysis,” by Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, January 6, 2025:

How Israel could attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear program has transformed in the last nine months, even more so in the last few.

Before April 19, an attack on Iran’s nuclear program was theoretically possible via an aerial attack using Israel’s stealth capabilities to eliminate Iran’s advanced S-300 anti-aircraft radar systems, followed by waves of strikes on key nuclear program sites.

Another goal would have been to disable Iran’s underground facility at Fordow by dropping a series of 5,000-pound or smaller weapons, one after another, on the same spot.

Over the past few months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took credit for the Israel Air Force destroying Iran’s S-300 anti-aircraft radar systems on April 19, and the rest on October 26.

This means that at any moment, Israel could launch an airstrike on the nuclear program, which is essentially undefended in any real way from such strikes – for now.

Put differently, what a year ago would have been seen as a risky mission, is now something, from a military point of view, that has already been partially done, with the rest remaining very doable.

In two air raids, the first on April 19 and the second on October 26, Israel put out of commission all of the S-300 anti-aircraft radar systems that Iran possessed, including those that protected Tehran. The country is now essentially defenseless against the possibility of future Israeli airstrikes and bombing raids. In addition, in the second raid, the IAF hit 12 “planetary mixers” used to produce solid fuel for newly-built long-range ballistic missiles, thus ending Iran’s ability to launch such missiles.

Tehran had three main indirect ways to scare Israel off from attacking its nuclear program. If Jerusalem dared to carry out such a strike, it was promised a hellfire of missiles from Hamas and Hezbollah – and powerful, unusually dangerous ballistic missiles from Iran itself.

The two terrorist groups, at least for now, are disarrayed and disorganized, and so are unable to help their Iranian sponsors….

Hamas is close to being dismembered, and Hezbollah has been so battered that its leaders begged for a ceasefire that required it to pull back all of its forces in southern Lebanon to north of the Litani River. Neither group is in any condition to help Iran by threatening to rain missiles — their arsenals have been depleted — down on Israel

By October 26, Iran had been stripped by the IAF of its ability to launch new ballistic missiles, with the plant that made the fuel for the missiles having been destroyed. No crushing response to an Israeli attack is now possible. The destruction of Iran’s S-300 anti-missile systems that protected Tehran and nuclear facilities on October 26 have also diminished the risks for IAF planes and pilots.

Israel is waiting to attack Iran until after Trump is in office. Once there, he will certainly give his full-throated support for an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But he may also do more. He could provide Israel with the 30,000 bunker buster bombs, or MOPs (Massive Ordnance Penetrators) that would allow it to more effectively (rather than using several of the 5,000 pound MOPs Israel currently possesses) destroy the nuclear facilities built deep underground — 70 to 120 meters below the surface — at Natanz and Fordow. Trump might also provide the B-52 bombers that may be needed to carry such a heavy load. Or Trump might decide to make the raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities a joint effort with the Israelis. All of these possibilities would be welcome in Jerusalem.

Iran had built a missile production plant near Masyaf in western Syria, intending the missiles to be delivered to Hezbollah. Israel managed to blow up the plant last September. Now the Israelis have finally released details about the raid. That month, a group of 100 Israeli commandos from the elite Shaldag Unit and 20 medics from Unit 669 landed at the plant. They quickly killed the Syrian guards, went inside and placed 600 pounds of explosives throughout the facility, and then detonated them from outside. The entire plant blew up, the result not of airstrikes from on high, but from commandos on the ground. The whole operation took three hours.

By releasing news of how the destruction of the missile production plant at Masyah was achieved, Israel was signaling to Iran that it had another way — aside from airstrikes — to strike at the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. The lesson is not lost on the Iranians, but what can they do aside from increasing security at those plants — while recognizing that time after time, the Israelis have always managed to outsmart them.

After the Iranians launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, of which only a handful landed — harmlessly — in Israel at unmanned military bases, while all the rest were intercepted, Israel launched its counterstrike on October 26, which is when it destroyed the S-300 air defense systems and the plants where fuel for ballistic missiles was produced, the Iranians began to build a “defensive tunnel” deep underground for the country’s leaders to hide in; they are now terrified of another Israeli attack.

So that is how things stand. Iran has been stripped of its S-300 anti-aircraft defenses. It cannot produce more fuel for its ballistic missiles. It no longer can count on diversionary attacks on Israel from Hamas or Hezbollah; both groups, battered by the IDF, are fighting for their survival. Syria, which has just had 90% of its military assets destroyed by the IDF, is no longer an ally of Iran but, instead, under new Sunni management, has become its mortal enemy.

And now the Israelis have shown what they can do with their commando raids, by releasing details of the 120-man raid on Iran’s missile plant near Masyaf in Syria carried out last September.

Finally, the Israelis know that Trump will provide diplomatic support for an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program. He is likely to supply Israel with the 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs that would make it much easier to destroy the nuclear facilities deep underground at Natanz and Fordow. He may even decide to have the American military take part with Israel in a joint attack on Iran, destroying not just its nuclear program but most of its other military assets and thereby ending both its mischief-making in the Middle East and, quite possibly, leading to a popular toppling of the humiliated regime in Tehran.