As I noted earlier today, the Israeli historian Amotz Asa-El believes that the “war in Gaza is over” and Israel has won. And there are good reasons to think so.
Hamas had expected IDF airstrikes, but did not believe that the IDF would enter the urban warrens in Gaza, where the terrorists and their weapons were well-hidden among the civilian population; Hamas simply assumed this level of urban warfare would discourage the IDF from a ground invasion; Hamas turned out to be wrong.
The IDF has an arsenal of its own advanced Merkava 5 tanks, its amazingly successful Iron Dome anti-missile systems, its plethora of advanced drones, its fighter jets from America that had been improved by Israeli aeronautical engineers. But it was not only the weapons that the IDF possesses that explain its exploits. The entire Jewish population came together as one — divisions over judicial reform simply evanesced — to fight against those who had carried out the atrocities on October 7. The reservists were called up, and 300,000 responded at once, leaving their families, homes, and workplaces, to fight for their country’s survival.
Hamas’s attack triggered Iran’s attacks on Israel, which resulted in Israel’s counterattacks, which exposed Iran’s military weakness. On October 1, 2024, Iran launched 350 ballistic and cruise missiles at Israel; almost all of them were intercepted or fell harmlessly on open fields. And on October 26, 2024, Israel gave its response, destroying most of Iran’s anti-aerial defense systems, including the Russian S-300 anti-missile systems that protected Tehran. On the same mission, Israeli bombs destroyed the Iranian plant that made the fuel for ballistic missiles. The Hamas attack also caused Hezbollah’s downfall, because it gave Israel the pretext to launch the attack it had prepared for years.
The defeat of Hamas led to the defeat of Hezbollah, and the defeat of Hezbollah deprived Assad’s regime of its most important Arab military ally, leading inexorably to its sudden collapse when the rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) showed up and made their rapid march from Aleppo to Homs to Damascus, with barely a shot needing to be fired. Assad’s troops melted away, throwing away their guns and frantically pulling off their uniforms in order to dress as innocent civilians.
I would like to believe that Amotz Asa-El’s conclusion — Israel, he claims, has “won its war” — is indeed correct.
But there remains much to be done. The Houthis have shown that they are still able to lob missiles at Israel, even hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa; Israeli strikes on the port at Hodeidah and the Sana’a airport are useful in preventing Iran from delivering weapons by sea and air, but the Houthis may have warehouses full of weapons, acquired over the years from Iran, that still need to be taken out. In Gaza, the Israelis have been surprised to learn from American intelligence that Hamas has enrolled 15,000 new recruits, which is three-quarters of the number of Hamas operatives it has killed. True, these new recruits are young and mostly untrained, but they are still capable of inflicting casualties by launching missiles into Israel; Hamas is believed to have launched about 24,000 missiles at Israel since October 7.
The IDF now believes that the terror group still has in its arsenal 20%, or 30,000, of the original 150,000 missiles and rockets that it had before the war started with Israel on October 8, 2023. Hezbollah, the other main enemy with which the IDF is currently engaged, has clearly not lost the will to fight. It is still trying to violate the ceasefire agreement by keeping both men and weapons in southern Lebanon, between the Litani River and the border with Israel. Even if it finally decides to retreat north of the Litani, it will not stop trying to infiltrate that southern area whenever the Lebanese National Army lets down its guard. Furthermore, in central Lebanon, including Beirut, Hezbollah may be able to keep its forces intact. Much will depend on the amount of military aid that the Americans will deliver to the Lebanese National Army, in order that it may overpower Hezbollah. And of course, Iran — the Jewish state’s most implacable and dangerous enemy — remains a threat. Iran’s scientists are still rushing pell-mell to enrich enough uranium for several nuclear weapons. So given all those continuing threats, let’s not declare a victory yet.
rick says
I am sorry but I must disagree with Amotz Asa-El that this is an Israeli victory. It could be an Israeli victory but at present Hamas looks like it can claim victory as well. Don’t forget that for Hamas deaths of both civilians in Gaza and Hamas itself is not any basis for defeat. That Gaza is destroyed as was Dresden and many German cities in WW II is not a good thing for Hamas but if the West pays for reconstruction that is fine with Hamas. What they are most concerned about is survival. And at this point they not only survived but have been cheered by the civilian population of Gaza when they put on their “uniforms” for the first time and not only walked among the civilians but showed they are still in charge.
So the war must begin again with Israel further grinding Hamas into the earth. The civilians have to realize that Hamas is dangerous to be allowed to exist for the civilian population as well as Hamas itself. They don’t seem to learned that yet. It would be like allowing the Nazis to continue to not only live but remain in control of the German civilians. Hamas leaders are a dime a dozen. So are Hamas gunmen. And civilians are seen by Hamas as canon fodder. And a great propaganda tool when they suffer and die.
Hamas is an evil group who care nothing about the population proven by their refusal to share their tunnels with them during Israeli bombings. “You civilians must stay on top and die while we stay in our tunnels and live to fight another day.” That coldness doesn’t seem to get through to the civilian population. Their hatred of Jews and Israel taught to them for so long insulates their anti-Semitism from anything Hamas does to endanger them.
The civilians cannot add 2+2. Hamas lives and we lose our homes, our possessions, our families and our own lives. That truth escapes them so far. Maybe a round 2 of this will make them come to their senses. Germans who were also very supportive of their Nazis seemed to more intelligent when they realized the Americans weren’t out to kill them but only wanted to kill their Nazi masters. Palestinians are more brain washed than anyone realizes. They still see Hamas as their best bet.
mgoldberg says
The ONE thing that Israel was prevented from doing was WINNNING. I use the Caps to show the one reality of all these wars. Israel has never been allowed to utterly defeat the arab enemy, and do what all nations do when they win the war- they take the enemies land entrance away and reform the enemy’s populace against further wars. Israel was once again forced from destroying the arabs in Gaza and instead we have this pitiful exchange of the remaining hostages for up to a thousand jihadist murderers. In other words, the west has forced Israel to reconstitute the next gazan army. I know President Trump would very much like to end that probability but since it’s never been done before, I don’t think it will occur this time either. Israel did defeat the dreadful Jihadist armies alligned against it and gained a tremendous new disbelief in the ‘two state solution’ but that too may be returned in the next couple of years if history repeats itself.
mgoldberg says
From Israel national news “…The Hamas terrorist organization has promised the family of archterrorist Marwan Barghouti that he will be released in the second phase of the current ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, Kan News reported.
“A Palestinian Arab source involved in the negotiations told Kan News that Hamas is preparing a strategic plan to take over the Palestinian Authority the day after Mahmoud Abbas’ reign – and Barghouti has the highest chance of winning elections.”
Barghouti led the terrorist organization “Tanzim” and was responsible for carrying out multiple terrorist attacks in which Israelis were murdered. He was arrested and sentenced to five life sentences and an additional 40 years in prison.”
If this does occur, and the Israeli’s are forced into such an agreement…. then it can hardly be called ‘winning’
James Lincoln says
mgoldberg says,
“The ONE thing that Israel was prevented from doing was WINNNING.”
Yes!
Israel and its IDF needs Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc., to unconditionally surrender.
mgoldberg says
The ONE thing that Israel was prevented from doing was WINNNING. I use the Caps to show the one reality of all these wars. Israel has never been allowed to utterly defeat the arab enemy, and do what all nations do when they win the war- they take the enemies land entrance away and reform the enemy’s populace against further wars. Israel was once again forced from destroying the arabs in Gaza and instead we have this pitiful exchange of the remaining hostages for up to a thousand jihadist murderers. In other words, the west has forced Israel to reconstitute the next gazan army. I know President Trump would very much like to end that probability but since it’s never been done before, I don’t think it will occur this time either. Israel did defeat the dreadful Jihadist armies alligned against it and gained a tremendous new disbelief in the ‘two state solution’ but that too may be returned in the next couple of years if history repeats itself.
sporticus says
Gaza is like a problematic tooth.
Will Israel just extract it or perform expensive root canal work?
I think the latter.
Every Gazan will have their face living inside a facial recognition database and Hamas-like activity will be matched against the database. As soon as a Gazan terrorist makes a move they will be zapped.
Hamas is as much a military with an Army, a Navy and an Air Force as Uber is a factory billowing smoke.
It may be ghastly realization but Uber is just an app.
Uber is just an app which is yet to realise an actual monetary profit. It has no infrastructure. The Uber drivers are just short time contractees. Uber does not care much for its drivers.
Hamas could not win any conflict except that its main weapon, which is media propaganda, is magnified a million-fold by social media apps and online publishers.
Money pours into Hamas and yet it produces nothing but hate and death. And it doesn’t care much for the apathetic citizens of Gaza which it binds to its political manifesto which can be paraphrased as “Wiping Israel from the face of the Earth”.
Hamas is an app. Every woke academic in Western universities is on the app.
abu taleb says
The war against evil will never end. And Islam is one of representatives of evil. Even if Hamas is annihilated completely, other muslims will take over Hamas in trying to destroy Israel, and other non muslims too.
skeptiker says
Es ist kein Sieg, wenn man sich auf Vorderungen von Terroristen einlassen muss, um die Geiseln zurück zu bekommen und dafür tausende judenhassende und mordbereite Faschisten aus den Gefängnissen frei lassen muss.
Und nicht zu vergessen, die Mullahs in Teheran basteln immer noch eifrigst an ihrer Atombombe um das zu vollenden, was Hitler nicht gelungen ist.