Houthis Cruising for a Bruising, Or, The Road to Ruin

In the last few weeks, the Houthis in distant Yemen have fired 15 missiles at Israel. Almost all of these were aimed at Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, but almost all of them were intercepted even before they reached Israel, but that hasn’t kept the Houthi spokesmen from continuing to boast, Osric-like, of “a hit! A very palpable hit!” They’ve just claimed to have struck a major energy plant in Israel, but the IDF has said the ballistic missile was shot down before it even entered Israeli airspace. But the Houthis are not deterred. Despite the battering both Hamas and Hezbollah have received, the Houthis know that the Israelis lack the kind of intelligence about their group that it had laboriously accumulated about both Hamas and Hezbollah. Yemen is also 2,000 kilometers distant from Israel, while both Hamas and Hezbollah are right next door.

The IAF in late December hit the international airport in Sana’a, and the port at Hodeidah where Iranian ships deliver weapons, damaging both. But the Houthis keep on sending missiles and drones toward the Jewish state. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have warned the Houthis that they are on a dangerous path. After all, Hamas is now fighting to survive in Gaza, and Hezbollah is being battered by the Israeli Air Force whenever it is caught violating the ceasefire agreement by which it is obligated to pull its forces in southern Lebanon further north, beyond the Litani River. More on the Houthis, who have clearly not absorbed the lesson that Israel attempted to deliver with its latest attack on the airport and port, can be found here: “Houthis playing with fire: Yemen’s aggression invites devastating retribution – editorial,” Jerusalem Post, January 5, 2025:

The Houthi terror group in Yemen, emboldened by its regional alliances and ideological zeal, is recklessly careening down a disastrous course of ruin.

In just the last three weeks, they have launched no fewer than 15 missiles against Israel, by their count – focusing on Israel’s two largest cities, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

This blatant aggression, at the behest of their Iranian patrons, has already provoked some significant retaliatory action. In response, Israel has hit Houthi infrastructure, including Hodeidah Port and Sanaa International Airport, leaving no doubt as to the Jewish state’s intentions to decisively defend itself.

Yet, undeterred by the clear lessons that history should have taught – lessons their Iranian allies should be familiar with – the Houthis are continuing their agenda….

The Houthis will find it harder to take delivery of weapons from Iran, now that the port at Hodeidah has been seriously damaged. And delivery of weapons by plane will also be hampered by the damage inflicted on the runways and the air traffic control tower at the airport in Sana’a. But that damage has not been enough to deter the Houthis, and the IDF is even now preparing a series of massive airstrikes on Houthi outposts all over western Yemen, as well as more devastating raids to put the Hodeidah port, and the Sana’a airport, completely out of commission. The Houthis, mostly primitive tribesmen who enjoy waving their rifles in the air, are about to experience the full fury unleashed by the IDF.

The Houthis’ only ally still standing is Iran. And now that country is suffering an economic collapse, with more than half the country living below the poverty level. Iran invested between $30 and $50 billion in its support for Assad only to see that entire investment lost, including the vast array of weapons that, thanks to the IDF, went up in smoke as soon as Assad was deposed. The government in Damascus has gone from being an ally to being the enemy of Iran, and the Sunni Muslims who have triumphed in Syria will never forgive Tehran for helping to keep Assad in power for so long. More Iranian billions went to Hezbollah and Hamas, for weapons, and there too, Iran has seen its investment destroyed by IAF airstrikes and IDF infantrymen. Iran will suffer even more economically when in a few weeks Trump becomes president and re-imposes all of the sanctions that were lifted when Biden came into office.

The Shi’a Houthis constitute only one-third of the population of Yemen. The two-thirds that are Sunnis have close deep-pocketed allies nearby, including Saudi Arabia, which is Yemen’s immediate neighbor, and the Emirates, both of which have supported attacks on the Houthis in the past. These Sunni powers have sovereign wealth funds of more than one trillion dollars apiece, and easily can afford to sustain the Yemeni Sunnis, as Iran cannot for Yemen’s Shi’a. Iran has lost the ability to keep the Houthis afloat. The Houthis will need to make some diplomatic accommodation with the majority Sunnis, or face renewed warfare with the other two-thirds of the Yemeni population, who have the support, both in money and weapons, of Saudi Arabia next door.

And meanwhile, as Israel comes to the end of its war in Gaza, and has managed to force Hezbollah in Lebanon to pull its forces north of the Litani River, it will soon have in the White House the “best friend Israel has ever had.” The Houthis should recognize how all occasions do inform against them. They are full of braggadocio, but their missiles are intercepted or land harmlessly. Only two of those missiles launched in recent weeks landed in Israel — one hit an empty schoolhouse and the other a kindergarten playground. That’s the extent of their damage.

The Houthis can keep on congratulating themselves that they are the “last man standing,” still firing missiles while Hamas is fighting for its life and Hezbollah has pleaded for and received a ceasefire that requires it to pull its operatives away from the border with Israel. But those missiles and drones are either landing harmlessly short of the target, or are intercepted before even entering Israeli airspace. Only a handful of landed, causing no significant damage.

The IDF is now planning what, if carried out, will undoubtedly be a devastating attack on Houthis. The Israelis are tired of the antics, the boasts, the occasional missiles and drones that land, and the constant disruptions to Israeli life caused even by those Houthi missiles and drones that are intercepted. Even a single ballistic missile that flies into Israeli airspace can cause a million Israelis to run for cover; this constant anxiety takes its toll. That attack will not be launched until Trump is in the White House. The Houthis could still prevent it from happening, by declaring that they have decided to call off all attacks on Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, and actually following through on that promise. It would be a humiliating admission of weakness, after so much bragging, but the alternative — that is, Houthi operatives and weapons all over western Yemen being pounded by Israeli airstrikes, along with what remains of the airport at Sana’a and the port of Hodeidah — would be much worse. And who can predict what the Sunni Muslims in Yemen might do after such a weakening of the Houthis by Israeli airstrikes? Perhaps they would take the occasion to inflict their own damage on those wild-eyed rifle-raising allahu-akbaring primitive tribesmen who are now wreaking such havoc.