How are the allies, or more exactly proxies, of Iran doing against Israel? Hamas has been almost totally dismantled. In Lebanon, Hezbollah saw all of its leaders, and dozens of its military commanders, eliminated 4,000 of its combatants were killed, and thousands more have been so severely wounded that they will never return to combat. That includes the 1,500 who were wounded by the “exploding pagers” and “exploding walkie-talkies.” Several dozen of its command-and-control centers have been destroyed. The IDF has confiscated 155,000 weapons. Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets is much diminished; it now has only 20% of the number of rockets that it had before October 8, 2023, and only 30% of its supply of drones. As for the Houthis in Yemen, Israel has bombed their only port at Hodeidah, making it impossible for Iran to deliver weapons to the group.
If Iran has been greatly weakened military by the IDF attacks, so have Iran’s proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. And Assad knows that. No wonder he must now be pondering an offer from the US and the UAE, to cut his ties to Iran in return for a lifting of sanctions by the US which would make possible the delivery of massive amounts of aid by the UAE. These sanctions include blocking the property of Assad and all other high-ranking officials in his government, blocking the property of the government of Syria, prohibiting new investments in Syria by US persons, prohibiting the exportation or sale of services to Syria by American citizens, and prohibiting the importation of petroleum or petroleum products of Syrian origin.
Assad has been wiling to have his country serve as a conduit for Iranian arms being delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but has not been willing to otherwise help Hezbollah by having his army attack IDF sites in Israel, not even after the IDF has repeatedly hit Hezbollah targets inside Syria, sometimes also killing Syrian soldiers present at those sites; the IDF has even bombed an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus. Over the years, Assad has learned to minimize any entanglements by his own forces with the powerful Israeli military.
Syria sat out this latest war between Israel and Hezbollah for a simple reason: Assad saw what the IDF had done in Gaza, saw the ferocity, too, of the IDF’s attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. He didn’t want his military, already weakened by 13 years of civil war, to be subject to more devastating strikes by the Israeli Air Force. He has to think of Syria first, not Iran or Hezbollah. Every time the Syrian military has tangled directly with the IDF — think of 1967 and 1973 — it has lived to regret it.
Why might Assad accept the US-UAE offer, if and when it is made, of removing all sanctions on Syria in return for a Syrian promise to cut its ties with Iran? In 2015 and 2016, Iran’s help was critical in the ongoing civil war. But now, Iran no longer has thousands of troops in Syria as it once did, but only a handful “military advisors.” It needs its soldiers to stay in Iran in case the IDF attacks once again. And Iran’s major proxy, Hezbollah, has also been of no help in suppressing the HTS insurgents; it has decided not to send a single combatant to help the Syrians out. It needs its troops to remain in their bases in Lebanon.
While Iran and its proxies are now of little help to Assad, relief from American sanctions, that would then lead to huge infusions of Emirati aid to rebuild Syria, would be a major economic boon for his country. And both he and his high-ranking officials would also see their assets abroad unfrozen when those American sanctions are lifted. All Syria has to do is to cut ties to Iran that are no longer worth much.
Assad gets to stay in power under this arrangement. Some will argue that he is a cruel despot, responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Syrians. He even used chemical weapons on his enemies. All true. But so what? Assad is terrible, but the insurgents now threatening his rule, the members of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are still more terrible. They are Muslim fanatics, and a threat to Syria’s non-Muslim minorities, including the Christians, the Druze, and to the Alawites as well, who are considered by the Sunni Islamists of HTS to not be real Muslims at all. Were Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to replace Assad and his Alawites, life for Christians in Syria would become unbearable.
Assad should take this offer — if it is made — seriously. He has much to gain from turning his back on Iran, beginning with the billions he can receive to rebuild his country’s infrastructure from the UAE and possibly other Sunni states of the Gulf. He and his ruling class will have their assets overseas unfrozen. He will no longer be in the business of helping to move weapons from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which activity has only caused the IDF to bomb sites throughout Syria. If he stops cooperating with Iran, and no longer allows his country to be used as a conduit for Iranian weapons to be sent to Hezbollah, those IDF attacks will stop.
It’s a lot for Assad to think about. But the more he thinks about it, the more he is likely to see the advantage, at this point, to cut his ties to Iran, thereby opening the spigot of billions of dollars from the Emirates, while lifting the sanctions that have been imposed for more than a decade on him and his cronies. This outcome sounds pretty attractive to me.
SKA says
“But now, Iran no longer has thousands of troops in Syria as it once did, but only a handful “military advisors.” It needs its soldiers to stay in Iran in case the IDF attacks once again.” How do more ground troops defend against air attacks rather than just providing more targets? More likely the extra troops are needed to fend off any possible popular revolt now that Khamene’i is at death’s door and a succession crisis likely. But that the Islamic theocracy is weakened is good news in itself!
InfidelLover says
What about Assad’s ties with Russia? Will the US & UAE help if those remain intact?
Hugh Fitzgerald says
I no longer think Assad can be persuaded to break his ties to Iran. Instead, what we want is a long drawn-out war between Asad and the rebels, with no side prevailing, and each side using up men, money, and materiel for many years to come. Pull up a chair, Western world, and watch.
Crown says
I long for the glory days of the Iran-Iraq war of the early 1980’s, when the serpents were devouring one another by the tens of thousands.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I do think that Assad might respond positively to the Emirates. Last time, he was on the verge of doing so when I ran was bankrupt, except for the Biden re-enriching Iran again. Essentially now, the dynamics in that region vary depending on whether the Democrats or Republicans are calling out US policy. It used to be bipartisan in the last century, but now, the differences are so big that it translates into ground realities changing in that region
I do think that Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Jordan and other sunni powers in the area need to denounce HTS, just the way they used to aggressively oppose ISIS, and signal Syrian sunnis that it would end up in Turks controlling an Arab people, something that would give them pause
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Interesting analysis. But I was watching a Caroline Glick interview yesterday w/ David Wurmser, and he had some insightful observations about some of Israel’s neighbors, particularly Egypt
Wurmser noted that Egypt was formerly an adversary of Turkey in the region. But Cairo saw how Qatar, instead of being punished by the US, was rewarded for playing a double game, where on one hand, it provided US military bases as well as provided a negotiation platform w/ parties like the Taliban, while on the other, freely hosted Hamas and continued to bankroll jihad, even though Saudi Arabia, for one, had discontinued it at government level. Also, Egypt’s concerns about Libya were ignored: while Egypt backs Gen Haftar in his bid to take over the country and Turkey supports the Sirte based regime, and the US kept its distance from Haftar, even though UAE and Russia supported him. As a result, Egypt decided to be less hostile to Turkey, and looked the other way on Hamas arming itself through the Philadelphi Corridor w/ Turkish supplies
Another thing I noticed is that there are 2 alliances stacked against Israel in the region. One is a Beijing led alliance of Turkey and its stooges, like Qatar…. other is a Moscow led alliance of non-sunnis – Iran, Syria…. If one looks, both Iran and Emirates are on the list to join BRICS, while Saudi Arabia has not yet accepted. So that group has two opposing alliances both being its members
That’s why the first foreign policy priority of the Trump administration ought to be to break the Sino-Russian alliance. Once they pull it off, the endless internecine islamic fighting will be more of a reality. As far as Israel goes, one thing Wurmser mentioned was that if the Iran regime fell and that fall was properly managed, then Israel’s next major adversary in the region would be Turkey, and he then went on to discuss ways in which the US could downgrade its military cooperation w/ Turkey, since there is no mechanism for NATO to expel a member unless the member in question itself withdrew
As for Syria, I do think that Assad might respond positively to the Emirates. Last time, he was on the verge of doing so when I ran was bankrupt, except for the Biden re-enriching Iran again. Essentially now, the dynamics in that region vary depending on whether the Democrats or Republicans are calling out US policy. It used to be bipartisan in the last century, but now, the differences are so big that it translates into ground realities changing in that region
Gurek says
Agreed, as always. The Beijing and Moscow led alliances against Israel are interesting. Do they differ from eachother except being formed by different countries? It’s a good thing that Saudis and Emiratis are not in that alliance and hopefully would not be. The Emirates is not led by jihadists and the Saudis are reforming their country under MbS. They should also, along with Egypt and Jordan take a stance against HTS who are backed by ISIS supporting Erdogan.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I believe that beneath that veneer of an alliance, both Moscow & Beijing are suspicious of each other. Heck, when they were both communist, they still were at loggerheads. I think they’re developing their own mini-alliances within SCO/BRICS. Moscow has India, Vietnam, and in the Middle East, the Iran led countries. Beijing has Pakistan, Afghanistan, now Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia and Turkey. I think the -stans are still pro Moscow, even though they are members of the Organization of Turkic States, led by Turkey, which is a Turkish equivalent of the Arab League
Which is why I think that aside from the FBI, DOJ & Pentagon, the State Department too needs an overhaul, so that people who’re not locked into Cold War politics can take a fresh look at all these, and figure out how to separate Moscow from Beijing
James Lincoln says
࿗Infidel࿘ says,
“Which is why I think that aside from the FBI, DOJ & Pentagon, the State Department too needs an overhaul, so that people who’re not locked into Cold War politics can take a fresh look at all these, and figure out how to separate Moscow from Beijing”
Yes.
A missed opportunity to bring Russia into the “semi-free” world.
Western powers still practicing “Cold War politics” helped to cause the current Russia – Ukraine war.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
James
I just finished watching Tucker Carlson’s interview of Sergei Lavrov, and one of his questions to Lavrov was whether Russia could be won back by the West instead of China. Sadly, the answer was no
Regardless of whether Moscow is willing to be our ally or not, their alliance w/ Beijing will need to be severed
James Lincoln says
Thank you for your reply, Infidel.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I believe that beneath that veneer of an alliance, both Moscow & Beijing are suspicious of each other. Heck, when they were both communist, they still were at loggerheads. I think they’re developing their own mini-alliances within SCO/BRICS. Moscow has India, Vietnam, and in the Middle East, the Iran led countries. Beijing has Pakistan, Afghanistan, now Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia and Turkey. I think the -stans are still pro Moscow, even though they are members of the Organization of Turkic States, led by Turkey, which is a Turkish equivalent of the Arab League
Emirates is already a new member of BRICS, while Saudi Arabia has put that on hold. In the case of Emirates, it’s not likely to affect the Abraham Accords, but it allows them to hedge their bets, given that they have had Obama’s stooges to deal w/ the last 4 years. It’s hard to say whose side Saudi Arabia is on. On one hand, when the Ukraine War broke out and Biden, after rebuffing the Saudis over Khashoggi, suddenly wanted them to produce more oil, the Saudis not only rebuffed him but declared their support for Russia in Ukraine (probably b’cos they saw themselves as being in the same situation in Yemen). Otoh, when the de-dollarization moves started, Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to tell Beijing that they were welcome to pay in Renminbi
Which is why I think that aside from the FBI, DOJ & Pentagon, the State Department too needs an overhaul, so that people who’re not locked into Cold War politics can take a fresh look at all these, and figure out how to separate Moscow from Beijing
memi says
This comment by Infidel is prophetic:
“if the Iran regime fell and that fall was properly managed, then Israel’s next major adversary in the region would be Turkey {and} then US could downgrade its military cooperation w/ Turkey, since there is no mechanism for NATO to expel a member unless the member in question itself withdrew.”
Absolutely! And perhaps a Kurdish nation of 60 million and the much-desired destabilization of Turkey as result might make terrorist-supporting Turkey to “withdraw”(?). . But Islamofascist Turkey somehow appears to successfully manoeuvre both boats at the same time, like a true devil, and stays in NATO as “trusted ally”(!) and keeps fooling the West…
Tom says
Why would anyone help that butcher?
Alex Lund says
Have you forgotten what has happened since Ghaddafi was removed?
Millions of asylum seekers entering Europe. Among them terrorists.
And not only that. When they were asked what the want, their answer – nearly all of them – say Sharia.
So, it is better when we prop up a not-nice person, then have millions of asylum seekers with terrorists among them leave this area.
And Assad knows how to keep them down. Because he is an Alawite and for real muslims this is worse than being a jew or christian. So, just for self-preservation he will act.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Not just that, the one positive result of the Iraq war was Gadaffi ending his WMD programs and working w/ the US to turn it over, as well as admitting guilt and compensating all their past victims of their terror, like the Lockerbie bombing. Since he had reformed, there was absolutely no need to intervene in Libya against him. The best that NATO could have done would have been to stay out of it, and he’d probably have trounced that revolt. Instead, he was lynched, and then Libya became a failed state, and what’s worse – Europe doesn’t have the courage to say no to anybody fleeing there from Libya. Those people could just as easily flee to Algeria, Chad, Sudan or even Egypt
No, no more regime change wars. Yeah, there are some regimes that I’d like to see ended, like the islamic one in Iran. But that’s something I want to see happen from internal pressure alone: I don’t want any other country to interfere in that one way or the other
memi says
Agreed with Alex Lund 100%. Assad may be a “despot” and autocratic but i recall he was democratically ‘elected’ while under supervision by the West and doesn’t have Sharia Law, the women in Syria hold important Cabinet positions and don’t go out with their “walking prison Burqas while the CHRISTIANS, YAZIDIS, ALAWITES and other minorities are PROTECTED.
Do we really want to have another failed state Islamofascist regime like half of Libya which got rid of Qaddafi and now is a colony of Islamist Turkey and ruled by its terrorist proxies (ISIS-AL-Qaeda-Tahir al-Sham & Muslim Bros based in Ankara).
They sell 6-year-old girls to 65-year-old Imams from Turkey & EU in today’s Tripoli Bazaars! It’s been reported to UN but the UN could care less!
And the part ruled by Turkey has refused to hold democratic elections and the secular Eastern Libya half ruled by Col. Haftar is not recognized by the Islamofascist “democratic” recognized by the corrupt UN Eastern “free” Libya which is really a protectorate of Sultan Erdogan and his Mafia.
Adams says
Are the Sunni jihadists in Aleppo funded by the good old USA who are still out to remove Assad ?
That is the rumour I read
True??
OLD GUY says
The problem is every time one of these islamic countries changes leadership we send MILLIONS of dollars to help them and turn against us. Maybe we should hold off on the cash, supplies and weapons until we know who’s side they really are on. We’ve been batting zero so far.
memi says
Very important points made in this article and hope its suggestions will be implemented soon by Assad!
The most atrocious barbaric act was the raising of the most Islamist ferociously terrorist-supporting flag on Aleppo’s acropolis: the TURKISH flag! What an eyesore! Erdogan had called the Israeli President “Hitler” and avowed to destroy Israel and “every Jew anywhere who is obstacle to the Palestinians’ freedom”! And he is still supporting, funding and giving Passports to “Hamas leaders” and ISIS/Al-Qaeda terrorists!
Now, Turkish money is funding ISIS-Al-Qaeda offshoots, terrorist proxies from Iraq/Ukraine/Libya/Chesney/Uygheurs are killing Christians and Kurds, having abducted 400 Kuirdish women from a military school and raping and looting Christian homes, businesses and Churches. And all this disaster in Aleppo with not a word from any EU country or the U.S. State Dept. Why was Turkey allowed to do this to Christians and Kurds? Whom does it benefit? Of course, the Kurds who are afraid of a Kurdish nation of 60 million. But who gave them the Green Light?
Whoever was behind Turkey’s UNLEASHING ISIS/Al-Qaeda against the Christians, Yazidis & Kurds of Aleppo must be found. Turkey must have received the GREEN LIGHT otherwise they would not have dared to gather their Islamofascist monsters and destroy Aleppo–a holy City protected by the International Law of Antiquities.
Assad was called lots of names, “despot”, “chemicals user” (“remember weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq?!) just as President Trump was scapegoated by the Democrats and called a “Russian asset” and God knows what else. Look what the Democrats did to Lt. Col. Tulsi Gabbard who dared tell it like it about the Democrats’ warmongering and then joined Trump’s Team.
Yes, Assad has an autocratic state, but has Women in his cabinet, Christians are protected, Syrian women under his government don’t wear burqas and girls are not married to 65-year-old imams as are now sold in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya and Turkey–Turkey the main exporter of terrorist and who has worked with ISIS (classified info) to steal gas from Iraq and Syria and Libya and pass it on to be resold by Erdogan’s brother-in-law who’s now a billionaire!
Assad would be most wise to accept what this article suggests which is to kick Hezbollah out of his ancient country and ask for UAE and the Saudis for help to rebuild his country and work with Israel and the U.S. for Peace in the Middle East.
Assad’s Christians, Kurds, Yazidis and other minorities under him (which he has protected better than any other Islamist country anywhere) will be grateful and maybe the Turkish terrorists would be thrown to the Mediterranean with their ISIS-Al-Qaeda-al-Sham monsters they fervently fund and support and who pose a threat (long-term) to Israel as well to all EU countries and especially those in the East Med that Turkey is contemplating attacking, such as Cyprus!.
Turkey’s Erdogan is a Cancer that has been allowed to fast metastasize and his ISIS-Al-Qaeda-al-Sham terrorists must be destroyed if Israel and the West is to survive their expansionist plans. The U.S. under the Democrats started 4 wars and allowed Islmofascism to grow! The facts are clear on this. But, prayerfully, their warmongers will soon be out of a job and sanity shall prevail!
somehistory says
“Syrian rebel commander urges Israel to support uprising, strike Iran-backed forces”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/syrian-rebel-commander-urges-israel-to-support-uprising-strike-iran-backed-forces/ar-AA1vowCl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e6952332c2c84155a93e127b64d0c5a0&ei=65