The rebel offensive came at a moment of relative weakness for three of Syria’s most important supporters. Iran’s ability to help has been curtailed by its conflict with Israel; Russia’s military has been sapped by its invasion of Ukraine; and Hezbollah, which had previously supplied fighters to aid the Assad government’s fight against the Islamic State, has been battered badly by its own war with Israel.
By pulling out of Syria all of its civilian and military personnel (including two generals who escaped to Iraq just in time to avoid capture or worse), Iran demonstrated to Assad that Iran not be aiding him to remain in power. The wretched performance of the Syrian army in city after city did not instill confidence in others — Iran and Russia — that any help they might have given would be enough. And neither country, even if it had had some residual faith in the Syrian Army, was in a condition to provide such help if it wanted to. Russia had done some minor bombing in Aleppo, but most of its planes in Syria were sent back months ago to help in the war against Ukraine. And Russia could not spare any soldiers to fight on the ground in Syria. Moscow has severe recruitment problems — many young Russians subject to the draft have left the country — and has had to hire at least 12,000 North Korean soldiers as an emergency measure.
Nor was Iran in a position to help out Assad. It has been weakened by recent Israeli attacks that destroyed many of its anti-missile defense systems, reduced to rubble its ballistic missile plants, and devastated as well a secret nuclear research facility at Parchin. Right now Tehran has to wonder whether, and when, Israel will launch an attack on its nuclear program. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has just announced on December 7 that Iran is “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade. Israel must now be factoring that unsettling news into its own calculations — perhaps it cannot wait until Trump assumes office, but will have to act against Iran’s nuclear program now. And the Iranians, of course, are wondering whether Israel will be prompted to unleash such an attack. In such a threatening environment, Iran was not about to send its own men and weapons to help out Assad’s failing army.
And then there is Hezbollah. In the last few months, Israel has devastated the Lebanese Shi’a group. It has killed 4,000 of its fighters and wounded, by means of the “exploding pagers” and “exploding walkie-talkies,” several thousand more so severely that they can no longer fight. The IDF has decapitated the entire leadership of Hezbollah, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor Hashem Safieddine. It has killed both the commander and the deputy commander of the Radwan Force, Hezbollah’s most elite unit. It has killed dozens of Hezbollah commanders. It has confiscated 155,000 weapons. It has reduced Hezbollah’s arsenal of weapons to 20% of what it possessed before the war. In short, Hezbollah was in no condition to do more than send a handful of soldiers to Homs to act as what Hezbollah described as “supervising forces” — presumably to advise, and direct, the Syrian soldiers who were in the city but rudderless. Obviously they were ineffective; Homs fell within a day or two, just like Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, and now Damascus. It will be fascinating to see what the Sunni jihadis do to any Hezbollah troops they capture.
Assad is now in flight, with his winsome wife, who once graced the cover of Vogue (how have the mighty fallen), presumably to Iran, the only country where he is likely to be given shelter. One wonders where Assad has stashed the tens of billions of dollars he “earned” from his grand theft of the Syrian treasury, and from the sale of fentanyl made in Syrian factories, the pills the being delivered by Hezbollah members to drug traffickers in Europe and the rich Gulf states of the Gulf.
Now the rebels rule in Damascus. But will these groups continue to cohere, given how various are their views? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, Mohamed al-Jolani, insists the group has broken with its Islamic jihadist, Al-Qaeda-connected past. We’ll have to see if this is taqiyya or the truth. Another major group in the anti-Assad coalition is the Free Syrian Army, a secular and democratic group. One of its senior commanders just gave an interview to the Times of Israel, claiming that he hoped now for friendly relations with Israel, that he was mindful of, and grateful for, the role Israel had played in weakening both Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main allies. If that view of Israel were to prevail among Syria’s new rulers, that could refashion the Middle East.
SKA says
After all the U.S. medical and logistical help to the people of Aceh in the northernmost tip of Sumatra was there gratitude and warmth towards the United States? When I asked an Indonesian Muslim he said “of course not!” Expecting the rebels to have gratitude to Israel for weakening Assad.’s allies. Iran and Hezbollah is like expecting water from the Moon! Damascus under Assad was bad. What is replacing him is worse!
ElderlyZionist says
“Another major group in the anti-Assad coalition is the Free Syrian Army, a secular and democratic group. One of its senior commanders just gave an interview to the Times of Israel, claiming that he hoped now for friendly relations with Israel, that he was mindful of, and grateful for, the role Israel had played in weakening both Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main allies.”
However. I read the Israel; Hayom interview. That FSA ‘senior commander’, if that’s who he really was, refused even to give his name and was not pictured in the phone interview. I suppose he feared being identified and assassinated, if the interview was not entirely fraudulent. We’d better remain vigilant while we hope for the best.
Transmaster says
Assad and friends have been seen in Moscow.
Experts on the politics of this area are saying that now there are 2 major powers in this region. Israel and Turkey. Iran and Russia are big losers. Trump has wisely said that we should let things settle out. Before we do anything.
https://x.com/Alex_Oloyede2/status/1865817871990882512
ConcernedReader says
And keep the oil for ourselves:)
As the oil fields in Syria are still under US guard.
So the USA also won. 5 years worth of oil. Now we will see what happens to it, but i doubt they will give it to whomever. Unless an islamist government will be formed. Then the democrats will quickly return the oil to the new Syrian Islamist Regime:P
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The oil is under real estate currently under Kurdish control, but you can bet that the Turks will do their best to get hold of it. The thing we need to do is read Erdogan the riot act, and that he’d lose US support overnight if he does anything in Syria
I’m against regime changes, but creating an independent Kurdistan from Iraqi and Syrian territory (and maybe Iranian too) should be a policy that the State Department seriously considers. If it decides that it is for it, it should make that clear to Ankara
tgusa says
It is a complicated situation but I must say that after decades of the same thing I’m actually feeling good about the future. We needed to get it all out in the open and that is happening. The future holds many things we have to confront and deal with. Might as well get it over with now instead of waiting for later don’t you think?
M D Anthony says
How will the freed Syrians keep Erdogan’s Turkey from taking over???
Westman says
Most likely funded by both Turkey and the US. Now the friction begins between them.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
You think that the same US State Department that funds Iran funds this anti-Iranian outfit in Syria as well? Maybe, if either Turkey or Qatar talked them into it
Westman says
Will the US keep Erdogan from comitting genocide on the Kurds? Strange NATO bedfellows…..
Westman says
Will the US keep Erdogan from comitting genocide on the Kurds? Strange NATO bedfellows…..
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Over the weekend, I watched Tucker’s interview w/ Sergei Lavrov, & the question came up about the fall of Assad. Lavrov opinionated that HTS – which was previously affiliated to al Qaeda – was not allied w/ Turkey. I doubt that he is that stupid to believe that Turkey wasn’t behind this uprising, given that they do not have a hands-off policy towards Syria at all. Whenever the Kurds look like taking power, whether in Syria or Iraq, Turkey is quick to intervene
No, Erdogan’s Turkey has taken over. Israel has now watched the shi’a crescent from Teheran to Beirut get destroyed, but now, there is a Turkish crescent from Ankara to Damascus. Hamas is a more natural client of Turkey than even Iran, since both Hamas and Turkey are sunni. Qatar is an ally of Turkey, and Egypt has over the last 4 years become less anti-Turkey. TL:DR version: Turkey now has a de-facto border w/ Israel at the Golan Heights
It’ll be fascinating to see what NATO does once there is a real flare-up b/w Turkey and Israel. Will NATO try & invoke Article 5, and attack Israel? That will put it directly against US, and maybe, just maybe, we’ll finally exit this worthless “alliance”
Westman says
“…many young Russians subject to the draft have left the country — and has had to hire at least 12,000 North Korean soldiers as an emergency measure.”
Please prove this US and UK planted story with some evidence. Despite the runaways, Russia has more recruits than it needs and is beginning to overwhelm Ukranian forces. That is causing the Biden admin to make bad decisions to lock Trump into a hot conflict. Zelenskyy is close to exile to get out of Ukraine, at risk from Russia and Ukrainians.
Where are the interviews with captured North Korean forces? There are Koreans in East Russia, being trained just as the US trains the militaries of other nations and have been there for decades.
Assad deserved to go but the theft and ransacking of the Palace, booty, speaks volumes of why any society which believes and acts on the militancy allowed by the Quran, cannot be trusted. They would rob the West if they could.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
One thing that struck me about the Lavrov interview is that when Tucker asked him how many Russians have been killed, he refused to answer. You are right that Russia has more recruits, but they have been at the receiving end of an Ukrainian assault, particularly on Kursk. Also, Russia’s eastern flank is pretty empty, as they’ve been pulling troops out of every corner of the country to fight this war. As for the North Koreans, some have just surrendered to the Ukrainians in order to defect to either there or the West
I actually would have preferred Assad to stay just b’cos I wan’t thrilled about al Qaeda/Jabhat al Nusra/Hayat Tahrir as-Sham/_____ (islamic rebrand of the day) seizing power in Damascus. The looting of the palace is typically Islamic, as has been seen over the last 3 years in Kabul and Dhaka
Westman says
We may be at the most dangerous time, beyond the Cuban Missile Crisis, where, unlike the removal of missiles from Turkey traded for removal of missiles from Cuba, we have nothing to trade for peace in Ukraine. The US and Russia have their fingers on the triggers for WW3 and idiots like Macron and Baerbock keep bumping into them.
Blinken demands that the remaining youth of Ukraine be slaughtered for US interests and EU/NATO nations are committing money they don’t have to continue the war. Ukraine is out of men and can only win if NATO steps in with troops. Could we send Lindsey Graham and the other chickenhawks who thought playing proxy war in Ukraine was a splendid idea?
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The only thing we can trade for peace in Ukraine, which would be win-win for both US and Russia, would be US getting out of NATO. We have a very strong reason: Turkey, which is a destabilizing force in the region. Once we are out of NATO, Russia won’t care whether or not Ukraine is a part of it. Other alternative is to offer Russia, along w/ Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Armenia membership as well. One advantage of that is that Armenia can no longer be violated w/ impunity by Turkey or Azerbaijan
What is making this the most dangerous period in history is the lame duck administration going rogue, and putting all sorts of landmines for the incoming administration. It’s one thing (and bad enough) to do that domestically to America, where it’s all at least self contained, and can be worked out through legal avenues. But doing it on the world stage is just churlish, and as Matt Walsh pointed out, just evil: to be willing to see a nuclear holocaust that kills millions of people just to satisfy their fetish of making Trump’s legacy a failure
James Lincoln says
Infidel,
Interesting post.
Question:
If the US had pulled out of NATO prior to 2021, would Russia have still attacked Ukraine?
࿗Infidel࿘ says
James
I doubt it. One of the main things Russia wanted was the Crimea, since that was the base of their Black Sea fleet, and under former Ukrainian regimes, they were happy to share it w/ Ukraine. However, once NATO kept expanding, while excluding Russia, it made them antsy. Had Ukraine joined NATO and Russia done nothing about Crimea, it would have lost Sevastopol and a part of the Black Sea fleet to NATO – a NATO that was still largely hostile to it
However, had the US withdrawn from NATO, Russia wouldn’t have felt threatened by all the very weak militaries that constitute NATO
James Lincoln says
Infidel,
Thank you for your informative reply.
And I agree.
Hundreds of thousands of men on both sides – dead or badly injured – all preventable.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
The reason Assad fell was one of those laws of unintended consequences. Russia started its war on Ukraine, w/o any analysis of what demands might grow on troops elsewhere either in the country or in the world. In retrospect, it was a bad idea in that their last major customer of military hardware, after Iraq & Libya, has fallen. Hizbullah stupidly joined Hamas in its war against Israel, and almost got wiped out (in fact, now, w/ Syria gone, that job is a lot easier). Iran, after Israel destroyed its air force, is in no position to help itself, let alone any of its stooges
The reports I’ve seen are that Assad has filed to Moscow, which is the only place that would have him. He’s not a shi’a, and Alawites were declared honorary shi’a by an Iranian cleric decades back in order to give Iran a shi’a foothold in Syria. Otherwise, some of their practices are downright heretical in shi’a theology, and wouldn’t be tolerated in Iran. The reason they had this alliance is that they got Syria from it, but now that it is gone, it’s only the Twelver sub-sect of shi’a that will be tolerated
tgusa says
Assad has landed in Russia and been give asylum. You will notice that Assad did not flee to any islamic country. Friends or allies, didn’t matter.
https://i0.wp.com/www.defensemedianetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/P3C-Harpoon-Launch.jpg?fit=1280%2C820&ssl=1
No, Assad fled to Russia. Assad looked around and decided, screw any of that, I’m off to Russia! Yes that right there explains a lot of things. But here among us, the fact is, those things are things we already know.
tgusa says
Wrong link. List of muslim majority countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country
Cory says
Of course the rebels are implementing taqiyya; why would you even doubt it?
England Invaded says
Now get of my country and the rest of Europe you invading muslim wog turds. Get back to Syria.
Leonidas says
STEPS FOR WORLD PEACE:
Bomb Houthis so they stop piracy in the Indian Ocean and on the Red Sea safe shipping can resume.
2-Russia ran out of troops so negotiations for peace in Ukraine will be successful
3-Iran develops no nuclear weapons and stops funding Hama and Hetzbollah.
4-Hamas and Hetzbollah tunnels are destroyed.
5- Turkey is no longer favored by USA , EU and is opposed in exporting refugees to Europe.