Now Syria will no longer serve as the conduit for Iranian weapons being sent to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Sunnis of Syria have no interest in helping either Iran or Hezbollah, nor do they want to become the target of Israeli airstrikes on sites where Iranian weapons are being stored for transfer to Lebanon. While the Syrians, of course, want the IDF to withdraw its forces from their side of the Golan, they have no interest in engaging in hostilities with Israel, which in any case would be impossible for Damascus to attempt, given Israel’s destruction of 80%-90% of Syria’s military assets.
The struggle for power in Syria has many actors. There is Turkey, that has already seized several thousand square kilometers of northeast Syria — far more than Israel has temporarily occupied in the Golan — and intends to remain in Syria in order to crush the local Kurds, all of whom Erdogan deliberately misidentifies as members of the PKK, which for the US, UK, and EU is a designated terror group. There are the jihadists belonging to HTS who disagree with the moderate stance now taken by their present leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, who himself may or may not be sincere in his current insistence on equal treatment for all minorities, and his public rejection of the jihadist ideology. There are those rebel groups, overshadowed by HTS, who want the imposition of Sharia. There are secular Syrians, who are alarmed by the history of HTS as a group that was once allied with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and who want to ensure that post-Assad Syria does not turn into a jihadist state.
The Israelis have destroyed such an enormous percentage of Syria’s military assets that even if it wanted to, Syria could not make war either to push Israel out of the eastern Golan, or Turkey out of northeastern Syria. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that because his country for years backed the HTS, it is owed a return favor by the jihad group, which is a free hand to take over areas of Syria in the northeast of the country where Kurds predominate. The Israelis have achieved the most important part of their goals in Syria, by several weeks of nonstop and massive bombing that has led to the destruction of almost all of Assad’s military assets, that had been abandoned by his army and that the Israelis feared could fall into jihadist hands. IDF soldiers have taken control of the Syrian side of the Golan, including the summit of Mt. Hermon, but made clear that their presence on Syrian land will be “limited and temporary” — the words of Israel’s UN ambassador Danny Danon — and will end once the dust settles in Damascus and the nature of the new regime becomes clear. As of now, the Israelis have suggested that they will withdraw, at the latest, by sometime in 2025.
Then there are the Alawites who make up 12% of the Syrian population and have no faith in Al-Sharaa’s assurance that they will be safe. Thousands of them, fearing retribution, have already left Syria for Lebanon. The orthodox Shi’a, who constitute a mere 3% of the Syrian population, are also alarmed, for like the Alawites they were supporters of the Assad regime. The Alawites could all withdraw to their heartland along the coast, near Latakia, and create a kind of autonomous region that the central government, now lacking weaponry thanks to the Israeli airstrikes, would not be able to suppress.
Trump has made clear that he will not become involved more directly, by sending troops to fight in, the internal wars within Syria. Still, the Americans recognize that the Kurds were their closest, and most effective allies, in the campaign to crush ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, and know, too, that the Kurds are by far the most pro-American group in the entire Middle East — always excepting the Israelis. There are 2,000 American soldiers in Syria who might be used not to fight the Turks, but to serve as a conduit for the supply of American arms to the Kurds. Thus armed, the Kurds in the area they call Rojava in northeastern Syria should be able to better defend themselves from Erdogan’s troops. Trump can also threaten sanctions on Turkey, such as preventing the Turks access to American weapons, placing tariffs on Turkish goods, and even raising the possibility of expelling Turkey from NAT0, if it does not cease its aggression against the Kurds in Syria.
Fasten your seatbelts for the next year in Syria. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
ElderlyZionist says
American supply lines to Syrian Kurdistan run through Iraq – from Basra port up the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Anti-American elements can attack those supply lines when they choose. It will be difficult for the United States to support a major war in Syrian Kurdistan without complete military control of Iraq.
The Turkish Army is not to be trifled with. I expect we will soon see the new Syrian government gratefully accept Turkiye’s protection, and the Turkish army operating up to the Israeli and Iraqi borders.
Reziac says
That was the whole point. Turkey wants control of the area, not only for Erdogan’s dreams of a new caliphate, but also because it’s a launchpad to attack Iraq and beyond, which would also give Turkey a southern port.
gravenimage says
Turkey has reportedly been heavily backing Sunni rebels in Syria, and many think this is the main reason why the rebels have now won. I consider this likely myself, along with Russia being distracted from propping up Assad with their invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
If the HTS genuinely wants peace w/ Israel and the latter to withdraw from the buffer zones, it will need to separate itself from Turkey and ally itself w/ the likes of Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Bahrein. sunni countries that have proven that they can peacefully co-exist w/ Israel. They can also demonstrate their bona fides by making things livable for Kurds, Christians, Druze and Alawites, not just sunnis
Trent R says
It’s no secret that Erdogan wants to reform the Ottoman Caliphate, to “restore order” to the middle east & beyond. Turkiye deserves to be removed from NATO and Erdogan knows Trump sees right through his ambitions. Yes buckle up folks.
sporticus says
The Middle East conflicts are in our face 24/7 and you might curse the lot of them with “F religion” but we can probably expect that if not religion it would be something else.
And even within Islam, Sunni and Shia and the minor sects will slaughter each other over ludicrous superstitions.
Within Christianity, Protestants and Catholics were over the last few centuries doing likewise. They were killing each because…yes just why did European Christians spend so much time in mutual bloody murder in the name of religion?
Now all is forgiven and it’s the Judea-Christian ethic at war with Islam.
I had never heard of the Judea-Christian ethic nor heard anyone talk about the Judea-Christian ethic until quite recently and it’s rather strange that there is such a thing as the Judea-Christian ethic when Western society is permeated at all levels with vicious antisemitism.
I see it a lot in comments these days, the Judea-Christian ethic, and it just sounds disingenuous and sniffily pompous. We’re kidding ourselves.
Now the Christians are bravely marching in Damascus, up for the slaughter in the name of God and their religion.
And, oh, here we are at Xmas dinner and look Uncle John has arrived with the guy next door and already they arguing about something…I wonder what it could be?
gravenimage says
Neither Judaism nor Christianity teach the slaughter of those of other faiths–as Islam does. You can sneer at this if you so desire, though.
I don’t know your relatives, but I rather doubt they are apt to murder each other over Christmas dinner–although you know your relatives and neighbors better than I do.
As for Christians in Syria, they don’t want to be murdered by Muslims–but this may well happen anyway. Muslims have already been beheading Christians there just recently.
And Islam preaches the murder of *all* non-Muslims who do not submit to Islam, Atheists and Agnostics as well as Jews and Christians. I don’t want to see any of these innocent people murdered.
Sporticus, hope you have happy–and safe!–holidays no matter how you celebrate.
somehistory says
It isn’t *religion* which causes people to hurt others; it’s human imperfection and selfishness.
Atheists argue with atheists, and with religious people; It’s a common thing with people.
Being anti-religious is not a *virtue.*
As for people saying “Judeo-Christian ethic,” the phrase (with serious Biblical meaning) has been in use for a very, very long time. It isn’t new and it isn’t ‘sniffly pompous.’
Jesus Christ was born a Jew to a woman who was a Jew, raised in the Law and chose His first disciples from the Jews. It’s only natural that Christians and Jews have the same “ethics” because we have the same God, Whose Son explained how we are to conduct our lives.
gravenimage says
What’s Next for Syria?
………………………….
Definitely good not to have Iran involved in Syria any more. But given that most of the rebels in Syria are Jihad terror groups like Tahrir al-Shams, ISIS, and Al Qaeda, things may be as bad or even worse than under Assad–especially for minority Christians, Kurds, and Druze. I would love to be proven wrong, though.