More on the aftershocks of the earthquake in Syria can be found here: “Syria’s Transitional Prime Minister, Hinting at Definitive Break With Iran, Calls for Refugees To Return to Their Homeland,” by Anthony Grant, New York Sun, December 11, 2024:
That may be one reason why Mr. Bashir appears to be throwing ice on any possibility of continuing a close relationship with Tehran. This could be despite a warning from Prime Minister Netanyahu that if the new government “allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria, or permits the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or if it attacks us — we will respond forcefully, and we will exact a heavy price.”…
A rapprochement with Iran is very far from the thoughts of Syrians. Most of them recognize the vital support Iran gave to keep the mass-torturer and murderer Bashar Assad in power for nearly a quarter of a century. They will neither forget nor forgive. But there is always the possibility that some jihadist group in Syria will want, not in order to do Iran’s bidding but just because, as dutiful Muslims, they believe it their duty, to make war on the “Zionist entity.” It is this group that the IDF has to worry most about it. And since the Syrian military has dissolved into thin air, with many military sites left unguarded, the IDF knew that this was the time to remove the threat of those weapons from falling into the hands of a new, possibly hostile regime ensconced in Damascus, or from non-state actors inside Syria, by destroying as many of those weapons as possible.
Many Syrian refugees will want to return to their country. Some, however, will not want to go back, but must be forced to return, for they are an economic burden to the countries where they have been taken in. Turkey, for example, where three million Syrian refugees now live, is spending billions of dollars to maintain them. In Western Europe, countries have reacted to the overthrow of Assad by halting applications for asylum from Syria. The tyranny has ended, and the new regime promises to respect the rights of minorities, so why should people who want to leave Syria for economic reasons be allowed to claim refugee status? Furthermore, the millions of Syrians who are now in Western Europe — there are one million Syrians in Germany alone — need not be allowed to remain as “refugees,” a status to which they are no longer entitled. They should be repatriated at once. That would save those countries billions of dollars, and also reduce the Muslim presence in their lands that has proven to be so unsettling and dangerous.
When asked by that newspaper’s correspondent at Damascus about speculation that he is open to peace with Israel but not with Hezbollah, Russia, or Iran, Mr. Bashir declined to answer.
Silence on the touchy subject of Israel, no doubt is called for until it become clear what the consensus will be. On the one hand, Israel was an important contributor — perhaps the most important contributor — to the fall of Assad. Some Syrians may dare to recognize that for themselves, but will not speak of it publicly. But on the other hand, Syria has been a relentless enemy of the Jewish state since 1948, and has fought three major wars — in 1948, 1967, and 1973 — with Israel, while in recent years, Syria has been the wiling conduit for Iranian weapons being sent to Hezbollah. The Syrian people have been brainwashed, from elementary school on, to despise, fear, and hate “the Zionist entity.” So it is all the more surprising that after those two days of Israeli bombing of 500 sites inside Syria, which included the destruction of most of the country’s strategic weapons stockpiles, its air force and military airbases, and its entire navy fleet, there has been no denunciation by the Syrians of Israel for these attacks. Could it be that many Syrians are as concerned as Israel, to prevent the stockpiles in Syria of missiles, planes, helicopters, drones, tanks, and ships from falling “into the hands of extremists” and are secretly grateful that the IDF, not for the first time, has saved the day?
Al-Jolani said: “People are exhausted from war. So the country isn’t ready for another one and it’s not going to get into another one.” This sounds as if Al-Jolani is in no mood to pick a fight with Israel, or even to wage a diplomatic campaign against it for its destruction of so many military sites. When another country destroys your air force and your navy, you would be expected, at the very least, to express outrage. Yet the new Syrian government has as yet remained quiet about the IDF’s attacks on air bases, ships, missile warehouses, weapons research plants, stores of chemical weapons. Perhaps it, too, worries about groups allied to ISIS or other fundamentalist groups managing to seize Syrian weapons in an attempt to seize power in Syria, and is quietly grateful to Israel for having removed that danger.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Despite 50 years of Alawite rule, while the sunni majority has declined from 95% to 80% and the sunni Arab majority to 60%, it’s still a sunni Arab country (unlike Iraq next door). So it’s less likely to be driven by any threats from Israel (w/ whom I doubt they’re gonna normalize relations) and more likely to be driven by their hatred of shi’a in general, and Iran in particular. So yeah, Israel and its allies have nothing to fear from any Iranian inroads into Syria: I daresay Iran won’t even have an embassy in Damascus, and that the Arab country that Iran will have the closest relation w/, other than Iraq, would be Qatar
If anything, Israel needs to start looking at Turkey as the emerging threat to their country. This new regime in Damascus will be a stooge of Erdogan, and he has been saber-rattling against Israel a lot now, aside from giving refuge to top Hamas’ leaders who were expelled from Qatar. In combating Turkey, Israel will have a bigger diplomatic heavy lift, not due to the UN or the Third World malcontents, but rather, due to Turkey’s membership of NATO and the fact that too many in the US foreign policy establishment consider Turkey an ally
࿗Infidel࿘ says
One more thing: although Syria has broken ranks w/ Iran, Russia will still have a say. Just like the Russians had no issues switching support from the communist regime in Afghanistan to the Taliban, similarly, they’ll have no issues supporting this HTS regime: they’re already on good terms w/ Turkey. Essentially, the Russians are big believers in the cliche that there are no permanent friends, just permanent interests. So they’ll do what they can to schmooze w/ the new regime, despite their history w/ Assad
It’s why the Russian embassy in Damascus was spared, even though the Iranian one was attacked. It’s pretty much curtains for Iran in Syria
somehistory says
NBC reports that blinken is over there, meeting and making sure there is a good transition to this new government.
But, what about the wanted poster and the millions offered?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/blinken-confirms-direct-contact-with-syria-s-rebel-leaders/ar-AA1vT0tI?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=654d34eb39a44b91b5ac22b100f8429c&ei=64