Unpredictably describes the jihadi surge in Syria, which has been reported as a “lightning offensive.” Assad has “issued a decree raising salaries for military personnel by 50% earlier this week.” According to Geir Pedersen, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Syria, “a vast swathe of territory has come under the control of non-state actors,” including the Islamic State (ISIS). Assad has also lost the major city of Aleppo.
The jihad coalition consists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), which are allied, supported by Turkey, and opposed to the Kurds. Fighting the Kurds is an obsession with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Videos have “showed SNA militias attacking Kurds, invading a hospital, and also abusing Kurdish women. These videos look like the Hamas videos of October 7 because the militias backed by Ankara have similarities to Hamas and other extremist groups.”
Given the strategic location of Syria — being in the backyard of Israel, no less — the U.S. and Gulf countries are also “working to weaken” Iran’s alliance with Assad. The sudden losses in Syria “appear to have unsettled Assad’s longtime backers in Moscow and Tehran.” However, Russia is already busy with Ukraine, and Iran with Israel.
Israel has “warned Iran not to send forces or transfer weapons to the Syrian rebels,” since they could end up in Hizballah’s hands. After all, Hizballah is already violating the ceasefire agreement. A few days ago, Israeli fighter jets intercepted Iranian commercial plane, Mahan Air, over Syria, as it was suspected of transporting weapons to Hizballah. So although Syrian jihad forces have overwhelmed the Syrian government, the Israel Defense Forces — which just eliminated Salman Nemar Jamaa, a senior Hizballah official overseeing weapons transfers from Syria to Lebanon — are “monitoring” and reportedly “will not allow threats near the Syria-Israel border and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of Israel.”
Iran is said to be waiting for a go-ahead from the Supreme Leader to send troops in an open confrontation with the Sunni jihadis, while Russia has already been carrying out airstrikes on Syrian jihad fighters.
Syria has become a battleground between Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel and America.
“Islamist rebels seize strategic city of Hama from Syrian regime forces,” Guardian, December 5, 2024:
Islamist insurgents have captured the Syrian city of Hama in a battle to seize a vital location on the road to Damascus, marking the latest challenge to Bashar al-Assad’s control of the country.
Militants led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered the city from the east on Thursday after surrounding it during five days of fighting with forces loyal to Assad.
Video circulating online suggested that the insurgents had captured a military airport outside Hama, and released prisoners held in a fearsome state detention facility.
As night fell, militant representatives said they had “fully established control over the city of Hama,” and called on police and militias in the city to defect….
Taffy says
Big trouble is brewing in Syria. If the rebels succeed, they will be at Israel’s back door, and I predict that these Turkey’s proxy jihadis will end up being Israel’s next immediate threat. All I can say is that Israel’s formidable air power is keeping the country from major losses that would otherwise incur.
Westman says
This appears to have Turk, US, and Ukranian fingers in promoting the very jihadist factions who supported 9/11. The Russians have been distracted with Ukraine, late to realization, and the Assad army is a shell of its former self. The Assad regime could fall if Iran and Russia are slow in response.
What happens in Syria may provide more contribution to an impending WW3 than a future threat to Israel. It would be interesting to know the proportional mix of Turkish Lira and US Dollars supporting the al-Queda+ terrorists, AKA, heroic freedom fighting rebels.