Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafist offshoot of al-Qaeda, is the most powerful rebel group in Syria and has now launched an aggressive assault on Aleppo. The late Islamic State caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi aided the formation of HTS, but its goal differs from that of the Islamic State: it seeks Islamic rule in Syria “rather than a wider caliphate.” And now it sees a golden opportunity in Syria:
There is little doubt that the setback Hezbollah has suffered recently from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, as well as Israeli strikes on Iranian military commanders in Syria, has played a significant part in the decision by jihadist and rebel groups in Idlib to make their sudden, unexpected move on Aleppo.
A takeover of Syria by the HTS “could transform it” into a “Taliban-like regime – with repercussions for Israel at its south-western border.” Syria expert Oren Teri, at the Jerusalem-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) stated that Turkey is likely involved in backing the rebel assault on Syria:
If Ankara were opposed, it would intervene directly or with Turkish-backed militias to stop them. But Turkey definitely has an interest in the ongoing operation.
Omer Ozkizilcik, an Atlantic Council associate researcher in Ankara, said similarly that Turkey has a “complex and difficult relationship” with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and that “we can clearly say there was indirect Turkish support (for the offensive) but no direct Turkish involvement.”
Erdogan’s obsession with the Kurds is ongoing, and he has also sought to normalize ties with Syria to “help ensure the safe return of more than 3 million Syrian refugees,” so an opportunity is present for him.
Although Assad has insisted that Turkey withdraw its forces from northern Syria before any normalization is possible between the two countries, Assad is now facing a dilemma. But now, yet another option has arisen for Syria as the US and UAE have discussed lifting sanctions on Assad in exchange for the Syrian regime’s break with Iran. And as Iran sends forces to Syria, the IDF has warned Iran “not to smuggle arms to Hezbollah.” Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that Israel “will make sure that Iran does not smuggle weapons to Lebanon and Hezbollah.”
“Exclusive: US, UAE discussed lifting Assad sanctions in exchange for break with Iran, sources say,” by Maya Gebeily, Parisa Hafezi and Alexander Cornwell, Reuters, December 2, 2024:
BEIRUT/GENEVA/DUBAI, Dec 2 (Reuters) – The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates have discussed with each other the possibility of lifting sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, five people familiar with the matter said.
The conversations intensified in recent months, the sources said, driven by the possible expiry on Dec. 20 of sweeping U.S. sanctions on Syria and by Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s regional network, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Iranian assets in Syria.The discussions took place before anti-Assad rebels swept into Aleppo last week in their biggest offensive in Syria for years.According to the sources, the new rebel advance is a signal of precisely the sort of weakness in Assad’s alliance with Iran that the Emirati and U.S. initiative aims to exploit. But if Assad embraces Iranian help for a counter-offensive, that could also complicate efforts to drive a wedge between them, the sources said.Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi visited Syria on Sunday in a show of support for Assad, and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke to Assad by phone about latest developments at the weekend.For this story, Reuters spoke to two U.S. sources, four Syrian and Lebanese interlocutors and two foreign diplomats who said the U.S. and UAE see a window to drive a wedge between Assad and Iran, which helped him recapture swathes of his country during the civil war that erupted in 2011….
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Not a bad idea. As Assad struggles to survive and watches Russian troops fleeing w/ his own from cities like Aleppo and Hama, he might want to consider getting some major Arab backing for his cause. There is a deal he can have w/ the US, provided he ends his ties to Iran, and forces Hizbullah to operate exclusively in Syria, and exclusively against sunni jihadist groups
Tony says
Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Iran, and the 50+ Islamic Countries are terrorist states of discrimination, violence, and terrorism against Christians, Israelis, and all Non-Muslims as taught in Islam’s Quran(eg. Quran 5:51 and more). Allah in Quran 5:51 says, “O you who have believed[Muslims], do not take the J * w s and the Nasara(Christians) as friends. They are friends to one another. And whoever among you takes them as friends, so surely he is of them. Surely Allah does not guide the unjust people.”