Jihadists on the march: trajectories of conquest

Today, perhaps, the main question is: what next?

After the blitzkrieg in Syria, the Sunni jihadists may not stop, and quite possibly will not stop. Appetite comes with eating, and rapid victorious campaigns very often become in history a prelude to new successful conquests.

This is exactly what happened with the Arabs themselves, when, with extraordinary speed, they captured Baghdad and Damascus in 750 C.E. and rushed in all directions: from Byzantium in the west to Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia in the east and Egypt and North Africa in the south.

Today, the jihadists have got epic opportunities, and their collective aspirations may push them to try to repeat the successful experiences of the past.

The first potential target is Lebanon.

Sunni Islamists hate Hezbollah. Apart from religious hatred, Hezbollah committed atrocities in Syria comparable to October 7. Entire villages were burned, cities were emptied.

In the Middle East, this does not go unnoticed, and now, when Hezbollah is extremely weakened by Israel, it is the perfect time to settle scores with its sworn enemies.

The second potential target is Jordan.

The weak, tottering Hashemite monarchy is a tasty morsel for the jihadists.

Jordan has a large concentration of Syrian refugees (about 620 000) who could easily be mobilized under the banners of the jihadists. 60% or even more of the population here are Palestinian Arabs, many of whom sympathize with the Salafi, too. The influential Muslim Brotherhood here are Islamists, only of a different kind.

It is unlikely that they will all find a lasting common language, but, like in nature in the wild, predators first bring down their prey using joint efforts, and then share their dinner.

On the one hand, such developments promise a headache for Israel, which has its longest and poorly controlled border with Jordan, but on the other hand, it could open new and unique opportunities.

In a chaotic world where Iran and Russia are extremely weakened, the Middle East is in flames, and Trump in power in the United States, the option of a “Palestinian state” may appear — but in the territory of Jordan.

For all the risks, the chaos in Jordan can therefore present unique opportunities.

The third potential target is Iraq.

Iraq is a fictitious, failed state consisting of de facto Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish entities.

There is no doubt that the Sunni jihadists in Iraq will enthusiastically open their arms to their Syrian brethren. The Islamic State in one form or another may re-emerge from oblivion. The idea of ​​the caliphate will take hold of the Arabs with new and even greater force.

Undoubtedly, the Shiites, organized into paramilitary groups and supported by Iran, albeit weakened, will meet them fully armed.

This will be a great religious war between the two schools of Islam. It is inevitable. If it does not happen now, it will happen in the near future in any case.

The Kurds, who already have de facto autonomy, will resist the jihadists, as they have done more than once. It will be extremely important for Israel to provide them with maximum support, despite Turkish hysterics.

Aggressive Turkey is today becoming Israel’s (and whole West too) most dangerous enemy, and weakening it will be a key strategic task from now on. Moreover, Beijing is likely to reorient itself towards Turkey from Iran as the dominant power in the region, with which it is also linked by deep hatred for the West, Israel and India. For Israel, the support of the Trump administration will be extremely important in this case, especially since Trump wants to limit China’s sphere of influence, and I believe we will get it.

If a strong Kurdish state is created, we will have (for the first time in history!) a genuine and loyal ally in the region.

Risks must be neutralized as much as possible; opportunities must be used to the maximum. Israel must behave like a great regional power, influencing the balance of power in the region and skillfully extracting benefits for itself in chaotic political cataclysms.

Alexander Maistrovoy is a journalist and publicist, published in Times of Israel, Arutz Sheva/Israel National News, Jihad Watch, Frontpage Mag, Сanada Free Press, Liberty Unyielding and others. He is the author of Agony of Hercules or a Farewell to Democracy (Notes of a Stranger).