Introducing Naim Qassem, New Head of Hezbollah

After Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, was assassinated by Israel, and then his presumed successor Hashem Safieddine suffered the same fate, the intrepid or foolhardy Naim Qassem took over at the end of October as head of the organization that has just suffered the worst defeat in its history. Salem Altekti, a UAE analyst, offers his view of Qassem here: “Why Naim Qassem is opting for a more uncompromising stance than Nasrallah – opinion,” by Salem Alketbi, Jerusalem Post, November 30, 2024:

Following a series of targeted Israeli assassinations that eliminated its prominent leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, and Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah appointed Naim Qassem as its new secretary-general. In his inaugural address, Qassem outlined his leadership agenda amid an exceptionally challenging period marked by existential threats to Iran’s most potent proxy in the Middle East.

Qassem underscored Hezbollah’s preparedness for a protracted war, asserting that the group possesses all the necessary means for victory and expressing confidence in “achieving triumph over the enemy.” He reaffirmed Hezbollah’s support for Gaza, justifying the party’s stance by stating that “international resolutions did not expel Israel from our land – resistance did.”

Israel was not “expelled” from southern Lebanon. In the last several months, it has set Hezbollah back “decades,” according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The IDF has killed 4,000 of its operatives and severely wounding several thousand more, with 1,500 of those wounded having been the victims of the “exploding pagers.” The IDF has confiscated 155,000 weapons. It has reduced the number of rockets in Hezbollah’s arsenal to 20% of its prewar levels, and its mortars reduced to 30% of what Hezbollah possessed on October 8, 2023.

He [Naim Qassem] accused Israel of daily aggression against Lebanon since 2006, citing “39,000 air and naval violations of UN Resolution 1701.” Qassem framed the ongoing conflict as “preemptive defense” against a “grand scheme” spearheaded by Israel, the US, and Europe to eradicate the resistance. He argued that the only way to thwart this plan is through the continuation of resistance.

In fact, it was Hezbollah, not Israel, that violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701.Israel dutifully pulled all of its troops out of southern Lebanon. But Hezbollah did not remove its troops, as it was obligated to do, from the area between the Litani River and the border with Israel. It instead remained in the south — repelling any half-hearted and timid attempts by the UNIFIL peacekeepers to make it fulfill its commitments. For 17 years, from 2006 to 2023, Hezbollah violated UNSC 1701. It hid tens of thousands of weapons, it built command-and-control centers, it dug tunnels from Lebanon into Israel, it distributed its combatants across the villages in southern Lebanon. In all this time, the IDF launched attacks on Hezbollah only in response to the terror group’s attacks; the IDF never initiated the violence. And the IDF’s entry into south Lebanon occurred only after Hezbollah entered the war against the Jewish state on October 8, 2023.

Echoing Hassan Nasrallah’s approach, Qassem reaffirmed allegiance to Iran, stating, “Iran supports us in liberating our land and asks for nothing in return.” However, he extended an invitation to any Arab or international state willing to support resistance against Israel, aiming to dispel the perception of Hezbollah as a mere proxy for Iran….

Qassem reminds the world that Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran, that Iran is the “head of the snake,” supporting Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis with weapons and money, and in exchange — far from asking “nothing in return,” as Qassem claims — the Islamic Republic expects those groups to harass the Jewish state and to serve as a deterrent, preventing Israel from attacking Iran. This was Iran’s hope; it hasn’t worked out that way. The IDF has managed to dismantle Hamas, to devastate Hezbollah, and to deny the Houthis their only outlet to the world, the port of Hodeidah in Yemen, by bombing it, so that Iran can no longer deliver its weapons to their Houthi allies.

Just how “resilient” is Hezbollah? It lies prostrate after the relentless attacks let loose by the IDF since October 8, 2023. 4,000 of its combatants have been killed, and thousands wounded. 155,000 weapons have been confiscated by the IDF. Tens of thousands more have been destroyed. Its arsenal of rockets has been reduced to 20% of their antebellum number. Dozens of command-and-control centers have been blown to smithereens. So have the terror tunnels that Hezbollah built at great expense, that went from southern Lebanon to northern Israel, that were intended to allow Hezbollah fighters to suddenly appear, without warning, inside Israel, in order for them to kidnap both Israeli soldiers and civilians, and take them back to Lebanon. Qassem simply refuses to recognize reality. Its hard to know if he believes his own rhetoric, or if he is well aware that he is engaging in taqiyya to raise the morale of his troops.

Qassem also capitalized on a recent drone attack targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence to underscore the “resistance’s” strength, framing the incident as symbolic progress in the ongoing psychological and propaganda war between Israel and Hezbollah.

“The enemy cannot count on time because its losses will force it to halt its aggression,” Qassem stated, referencing what he called “the phase of inflicting pain on the enemy.” Here, he perpetuates Nasrallah’s approach, framing mere survival as victory in line with Iran’s doctrine and its proxies’ narrative….

Is “time” really on Hezbollah’s side? Has “time” been on Hezbollah’s side in the last few months? Won’t “time” bring President Trump to power? He is likely to supply Israel with whatever weapons it needs, and will hold nothing back, unlike Biden, who delayed deliveries of some weapons in order to render Israel more compliant with his demands. Unlike Biden, Trump will not presume to second-guess Israeli generals. Trump will reimpose sanctions on Iran which will likely to cause its economy to collapse, and render it unable to furnish Hezbollah either with more money to pay its recruits or with the expensive weapons to replace those that the IDF confiscated.

A desperate Hezbollah has now been forced to accept those very conditions set out in a letter from Washington to Jerusalem, that guarantee Israel the right to attack Hezbollah positions whenever the IDF detects an attempt to violate the ceasefire agreement. Just a few days into the ceasefire, for example, the IDF bombed a rocket launching site where an attempt by Hezbollah operatives to move missiles, either to hide them, or to launch them, had been detected. And the Americans did not object. The IDF intends to strike wherever and whenever a possible threat by Hezbollah is detected.

Naim Qassem, like Hassan Nasrallah, exaggerates and lies to keep up the morale of the group’s members. He ignores the devastation of infrastructure in southern Lebanon, ignores the cost in fighters killed and wounded, ignores the fact that it is Hezbollah, not Israel, that has sued desperately for peace — that is, for a 60-day ceasefire. Whatever the mythomane Naim Qassem wants to claim, to keep up the morale of Hezbollah members, by lying to them, most of the world recognizes that Hezbollah has just suffered a staggering defeat. In Qassem’s imaginative retelling, instead of a terrific defeat, ‘twas a famous victory. He may even believe it. Qassem is also more “hardline and uncompromising” than Nasrallah, and likely to even now be planning for a next round of hostilities with the Jewish state, trying to figure out if, despite the Israeli threat to Iran’s nuclear program, Iran might still be willing to again part with some of its rockets, missiles, mortars, and drones. I doubt he will succeed. Iran has seen its two main proxies —Hamas and Hezbollah — devastated by the IDF, their weapons destroyed or confiscated. As for Naim Qassem himself, I don’t give him much of a chance to last. As Yoav Gallant, at the time Israel’s Minister of Defense, mordantly observed at the end of October when Qassem’ s appointment was announced, his appointment “won’t be for long.”