Could the fall of Assad, which turned Syria from an ally of Iran into a bitter enemy, help inspire Iranians to rebel against their own despots? Herb Keinon discusses that possibility here: “Assad falls, Khamenei wobbles: Will events in Syria lead to something similar in Iran? – analysis,” by Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post, December
“Hezbollah is the victor,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted on X/Twitter on September 25, a week after beepers and walkie-talkies exploded in the hands of Hezbollah operatives across Lebanon, in what will surely go down as one of the most off-the-mark social media posts of all time.
He added absurdity to arrogance when, a few hours later, he posted again: “The Resistance Front and the Hezbollah Front will be the ultimate victors in this battle.”
The Supreme Leader hailed Hezbollah as “the victor” the week after thousands of its fighters were so severely damaged by the “exploding pagers” and “exploding walkie-talkies” that they would never fight again. And to make sure everyone got his (absurd) message, a few hours later he repeated the baseless boast: “The Resistance Front and the Hezbollah Front will be the ultimate victors in this battle.” Well, it didn’t turn out that way. In just the two months since the “exploding pagers”sabotage, the IDF has managed to kill 4,000 Hezbollah fighters, to confiscate 155,000 weapons, and to reduce Hezbollah’s store of rockets by 80%.
Two days later, Hezbollah’s leader, and Khamenei’s prized protégé, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated. Just over two months after that, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, the linchpin of Iran’s so-called Resistance Front, fled to Russia, his regime in ruins.
Talk about social media posts that did not age well.
In the avalanche of post-mortems since the Assad regime’s collapse – the ones that list the winners and losers from this development – Iran tops the list of losers, followed by Hezbollah. Russia, which had propped up Assad no less than Iran but whose investment in the country and Hezbollah was not nearly as great as that of Iran, was a close third.
A staggering loss
Iran’s loss is staggering. Assad’s fall toppled the crown jewel of the arc of resistance that Iran spent over 35 years constructing as a counterbalance to Israel and American influence in the region. The removal of this cornerstone has effectively dismantled the arc….
Hamas has been dismantled, Hezbollah greatly damaged, and Syria, under new management, has had its air force and its navy destroyed by the Israeli Air Force, which is determined to make sure that no weapons are left in Syria that, should they fall into the wrong — jihadist — hands, could threaten the Jewish state.
Iran has been unable to help Hamas in its death struggle with Israel. It has also been unable to provide weapons and money to Hezbollah; the IDF has relentlessly bombed shipments of weapons being sent by Iran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Finally, Iran provided no aid to Assad as he faced the rebels; he already had the weapons and money he needed, but what he lacked were enough motivated soldiers to use those weapons. Assad’s soldiers were demoralized and underpaid, Sunni conscripts who had to endure being ordered about by Alawite officers, many of whom had attained their positions precisely because they were Alawites, the sect to which Bashar Assad belonged. No Iranian soldiers arrived in Syria to help fight Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Now that Assad has fallen, Iran no longer has any allies in the region. Its staunchest ally, Assad’s Syria, no longer exists, and the Syrian rebels now in power regard Iran with hatred for having supported the Assad regime ever since the Islamic Republic came into being.
Will the spectacle of such a rapid and mainly nonviolent overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria inspire Iranians to go and do likewise? Surely the ease with which this rebellion was accomplished will have caused many Iranians who despise the regime they have endured for 45 years to wonder about a similar revolt succeeding in their country. When Trump comes into office, among his first acts should be the reimposition of sanctions on Iran, pushing the country’s already battered economy into a nosedive, so that the newly poor, who had been middle-class, will be ready to rise up against this regime that continues to cause them such misery.
SKA says
The great people of Iran need ARMS and strong external support, not mere words! A real revolution and not a neo-Con “color revolution.” Time for Iran to return to friendship with Israel as in the time of Cyrus and of the late Shah. Then Iran will be blessed according to Genesis 12:3’s promise.
MJ Raichyk, PhD says
What will become of the treasonous Biden WAIVING another
$10Billion in SANCTIONS against Iran? Hopefully not in time to unwobble Khameneis
TTYL
Transmaster says
What I am hoping for is the Country of Kurdistan coming out of all of this. This will piss off both Erdogan and Iran.
Hugh Fitzgerald says
Next to the Israelis the Kurds have been most helpful in fighting Jihadists. They helped the Americans. in Iraq against Saddam’s forces, and fought against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. In Syria, they are still fighting ISIS (as well as the Turkish troops Erdogan has sent in to seize Kurdish territory), and holding prisoner thousands of members of ISIS from Western countries. An independent Kurdistan in northeastern Syria would be a firm American ally, and its existence would encourage other Kurdish separatists in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey.
Cynthia says
Hugh, please cut and paste your comment to President Trump and the new Secretary of State as soon as they begin!
࿗Infidel࿘ says
One major difference b/w Syria and Iran is that in Iran, there are no rebel militias holed up in some corner of the country, say Tabriz or Zabol or Bandar Abbas or Abadan…., the way the Syrians had in Idlib. Also in Syria, the HTS rebels were sunni Arabs, which is still 60% of the population, who could get behind them. In Iran, most of the restive people are apostates strongly resenting the islamic regime, but there is no non-islamic entity as yet that they can rally around. Reza Pahlavi has talked about having a secular, lawful transition of power should the islamic regime collapse, but even then, there has to be an organized militia to back it up
Another thing – just like in Syria, the Turks won’t tolerate even the appearance of Kurdish autonomy, let alone independence. Therefore, if Iran looks like falling, the Turks are more likely than not to try putting together a militia, or maybe getting their close buds Azerbaijan to invade Iran, and make it a Turkic state, just like Azerbaijan itself. Except that most Iranians are not Azeris: only 16% of them are. But just like Turkey and Azerbaijan would like to eliminate the state of Armenia, they would be just as happy to eliminate Iran and create a land bridge to Turkmenistan, and the only reason they haven’t done that so far is the perception that the Iranian regime is solid, like it showed in the 1980s
Any US or Israeli strategic planners who are putting together scenarios in Iran in the event of the fall of the islamic regime should also factor in Turkish intervention. Right now, Turkey is the only country left standing in the region. Russia has shown how hollow its power is in that it couldn’t even prevent an HTS takeover of Syria. Georgia is struggling w/ a law requiring transparency on foreign influence, Armenia is too weak to prevent even Azerbaijan from annexing territory, Syria looks like a new puppet of Turkey and Iraq is struggling just to hold together. Essentially, there is nothing stopping Turkey from overrunning the entire region, except for Israel. The US foreign policy establishment still regards Turkey as an ally, and I’m not even talking about the Dems.: a GOP congressman, interviewed on Fox, said he was talking w/ his “Turkish partners” about the situation in Syria, as though the latter is just a disinterested observer
I do hope somebody in the Trump circles, be it Gabbard, Hegseth or anyone else gets the foreign policy establishment to take a fresh look at Turkey, and everything they are doing –
➤ Attempts to become the leaders of the muslim ummah
➤ Aggressive posture towards Greece
➤ Meddling in Europe, particularly encouraging Turkish political parties there
➤ Belligerence against Cyprus
➤ Violation of Armenia along w/ their pan-Turkic ambitions
➤ Ties to Hamas and other muslim brotherhood entities in the region
➤ Genocide attempts against the Kurds outside Turkey
➤ Interference in Syria
➤ Belligerence towards Israel both in the Mediterranean, as well as supplying weapons to Hamas
Make such a review Turkey-centric, rather than just look at bits and pieces of their policies on any of the bullet points listed above. B’cos after China, this is our next biggest threat, not Russia