John Spencer spent 25 years in the U.S. Army, and now is a professor of urban warfare at West Point, one of the acknowledged leaders in the field. He has been mightily impressed with the way the IDF has conducted its campaign in Gaza, especially its tremendous effort to minimize civilian casualties by warning Gazans to leave sites that are about to be targeted by the IAF. Many millions of leaflets have been dropped, millions of text messages have been sent, and millions of robocalls made by the IDF, all in order to warn civilians away from danger. From his study of the IDF, Spencer has concluded that “ Israel’s extraordinary efforts to avoid civilian casualties endanger its own soldiers,” and “Israel has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history—above and beyond what international law requires and more than the U.S. did in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Now he has been studying the likely effect of an arms embargo on Israel which, he concludes, will actually lead to more civilian deaths. More on his argument can be found here: “Arms Embargo on Israel Could Lead to More Destruction in Gaza, Says West Point Urban Warfare Expert,” by Corey Walker, Algemeiner, December 19, 2024:
Imposing an arms embargo on Israel would strengthen the terrorist group Hamas, prolong the ongoing war in Gaza, and worsen the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian enclave, according to John Spencer, the chair of urban warfare studies at West Point’s Modern Warfare Institute.
US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) hosted a discussion with Spencer on his podcast earlier this week about urban conflict around the world, and part of the conservation focused on the potential consequences of placing an arms embargo on Israel amid the Jewish state’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
During the discussion, Spencer argued that withholding weapons from Israel could have the unintended consequence of causing more death and destruction in Gaza. Spencer, who served in the US Army for 25 years and did two tours in Iraq, asserted that barring countries from using bombs, missiles, and mortars in urban locations such as Gaza will “drive war into populated areas.”
The urban warfare expert explained that implementing a weapons ban against the Jewish state would only incentivize Hamas to double-down on tactics that prolong the war and endanger the lives of civilians. He pointed out that heavy munitions, such as 2,000-pound bombs, are capable of penetrating the earth and collapsing underground tunnels, which Hamas has built and utilized to hide hostages, plan attacks, and use civilians as human shields. Therefore, Spencer argued, a ban on arms transfers to Israel would lead Hamas to build more tunnels underneath the besieged enclave.
An arms embargo depriving the IDF of the heavy munitions needed to destroy tunnels would allow those Hamas tunnels that still exist to avoid destruction. Hamas would even be encouraged to build more tunnels that would now be safe from strikes by Israel’s more limited ordnance.
Spencer suggested that a media-driven pressure campaign against Israel has resulted in a “restriction” on arms transfers to the Jewish state. He stated that the insistence from so-called “Western, moral, law-abiding countries” that Israel not use heavy weaponry in densely populated areas is at odds with the best urban warfare practices. Through hamstringing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Spencer argued these restrictions could allow Hamas to potentially turn a single building in Gaza into a “months-long battle.”
Imagine that a 10-story building in Gaza has a Hamas command-and-control center built directly under it. Imagine further that the US withholds from Israel the kind of bomb that can flatten the entire building and even destroy the tunnel underneath. Flatten it, that is, only after the IDF has warned civilians away. Instead, without such a bomb, it might take weeks for the IDF to lay siege to the building and to destroy it with repeated mortar volleys, and grenades so as to finally be able to get to the tunnel underneath and destroy that command-and-control center.
An embargo on certain arms for Israel will lengthen the time it takes the IDF to destroy enemy outposts in civilian buildings and areas. The longer the war takes, the greater will be the destruction and the more numerous will be the unavoidable civilian deaths. If the IDF can flatten a building with a bomb — having of course warned civilians in advance to flee, so that ideally no civilians will be killed, that is the best outcome. Otherwise, a long drawn-out slog by the infantry to destroy a Hamas hideout, or rocket launcher site, or weapons warehouse, will likely result in more Israeli soldiers being killed, and more Gazan civilians, too. And without the larger American bombs, the IDF will also be unable to destroy more of Hamas’ terror tunnels.
On the effect of an arms embargo, whom should we listen to, whom should we trust? Should we trust Professor John Spencer, who, after serving in the US military for 25 years, has spent his entire professional life dispassionately studying urban warfare around the world, or should we defer to those other scholars of urban warfare, and constant scolds of Israel, Bernie Sanders (D-Ben and Jerry’s) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Chivas Regal)?
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Hopefully, after January 20th, there is a major purge at the State Department
Taffy says
I would not worry about an arms embargo; come January 20th it will be a moot discussion.
And, I hope that Isr are l has learned its lesson. Either it has to stockpile 2 years worth of ammunition, bombs, etc., and it has to start its own domestic manufacturing capability of munitions it relies on others to sell.
And, John Spencer is correct. In addition to his points, should for example, the US not sell Israel JDAMS capable bombs, Israel will still strike Hamas, but they will do so with “dumb” bombs, so the collateral damage in terms of civilian casualties and infrastructure will be higher.
By the way, I’m not sure if John Spencer is correct with respect to civilians successfully fleeing a targeted building. There are too many reports of Hamas shooting their own Gazans should they attempt to flee. The only was to minimize loses is to allow Israel to go on an all out assault against Hamas and kill every last member of the terror group.
James Lincoln says
Strongly agree, Taffy.
Israel needs to both stockpile weapons – and massively increase their ability to manufacture their own.